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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #51 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:45
permalink #51 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:45
>If we could heal everybody with technology, the doctors would be out of work, for sure. So if that killer healing app appeared, would you want to suppress it so that doctors could hang in? Technology doesn't heal people. Doctors use technology to heal people. That's how it's worked for as long as humans have been humans, and I don't see anything that can or should change it, and (as I've said) the loudest argument against 'participatory medicine' are the tv ads encouraging people to participate in asking their doctor for imbeciledumbostatin
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #52 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:47
permalink #52 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:47
"Havel talks a lot about the dangers of technocratic government in this book. Of handing over politics to well-trained experts who know what they are doing and can prove it. I happen to favor technocracy in politics because I think politics ought to be dull, and business should be rather dull too, while efforts like science and the arts ought to have all the vibrancy. But after reading Havel's warnings about the crimping and demeaning effect this has, the loss of a sense of purpose, I'm troubled." That word I used with medicine - "participatory" - occurs to me here. It's good to have capable managers running government, administering government affairs and making sure everything works as it should, going for the best result. These are bureaucrats - they're staff - but it shouldn't be their job to decide, at a high level, what they should be doing. That's driven my people who legislate and people who execute - politicians and statesmen who are ideally responsive to the popular will. They're most responsive to the people they hear and see, which is usually not John Q. Citizen, but Leticia Lobbyist. If we can have better participation, and especially if we can get the real passions of the people pumped into the legislative process - won't that balance the "crimping and demeaning effect" you mention?
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #53 of 223: Harmless drudge (ckridge) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:47
permalink #53 of 223: Harmless drudge (ckridge) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:47
I am thinking a lot about industrialization right now, because I am busily teaching a bunch of outsourcers in the Philippines how to index periodicals. I am turning a hundred-year old craft into an industrial process that can be done by cheap, high-turnover workers anywhere. It is really horrible and I will probably get laid off when I'm done, but it is giving me things to think about. It seems to me that what we have to do is to industrialize medicine and teaching, two things that are done now as crafts, poorly, and at great expense. We need inexpensive medical technicians doing the same exact tests, procedures, and protocols over and over, exactly the same way each time, with the speed and perfection of incessant practice. Break the work into parts; analyze the parts into steps; train people to do those steps quickly and perfectly: that's our trick. Similarly, we need is not only a national curriculum and standardized testing, but uniform lesson plans for each teacher each day. The lesson plans needn't be compulsory; making some lesson plan or other compulsory would do the job. Making lesson plans is far and away the hardest part of a teacher's job. Most of them would use the available plans most of the time. I don't see any way around this. We can't have a bunch of half-shamans wandering around at work as if they were in the middle ages in the middle of a industrial society, sucking huge amounts of money out of the system in return for doing a moderately poor job. We aren't rich anymore. We can't afford to be inefficient. This seems like the only thing to do, and it seems like there is no way in the world people could be gotten to do it. Could it happen? If so, where, when, how?
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #54 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:56
permalink #54 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:56
Stet - I said "if" for a reason. Of course there won't be a "killer healing app," I posited that for the sake of argument. To your other point, ads on television are not participatory medicine. In fact, they're a goofy idea, though they probably work to sell pills. Hearing about something and asking your doctor about it is not participating in your care and treatment - you're still passive and uninformed in that process. If you saw the ad, then studied the treatment it mentions against other treatments, assessing potential upsides and downsides, side effects, etc., then discussed it with your physician in an informed way as a possible treatment choice, that would be closer to participatory medicine.
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #55 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:58
permalink #55 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 5 Jan 10 11:58
*ICON magazine just sent me email saying that they accidentally put chunks of issue #80 online before the release of their print edition. You know, it's that story I put in the State of the World discussion here. *They discovered their error, and hastily removed the material, except for my little story there. Online for mere hours, it promptly got thousands of hits after Google spidered it and then the link got Twittered. So ICON, rather sheepishly, decided to leave the story up. It's still there, with no other parts of a magazine around it. Kind of a loss-leader now. http://bit.ly/8RRbsZ *Okay, likely some mild, unsought web publicity for the mag from this mishap. No big deal. But better leave it there. Right? Why risk probable WORSE publicity when random ornery geeks are clicking on a dead link and it's like: "Hey! Upscale British architecture print magazine! Where's that free stuff? We never forgive! We never forget! Expect us!" *Here's a supposedly slyer architecture mag from Holland, where they put a full story of mine online, let it soak up some hits, then cut the dot-pdf in half. They baldly tell you that you have to buy the print magazine if you want to read the rest of it. But, I rather imagine that issue's sold out by now. So, if you stumble-upon this story while websurfing, you can blithely read half of it and then suffer the irritation. http://www.sunarchitecture.nl/upload/49d601a8ba4b25.51434338.pdf *Are either, or really any, of these schemes working for print media? No. Why? Because a magazine on the web isn't a magazine on the web. It's a piece of the web that is shaped like a magazine, and tries to maintain magazine-like customs, functions and expectations. And, like, why. Why do that? It sort of worked when the Web was a series of static non-refreshing web pages, but now it's about as likely as trying to cram a glossy mag onto the WELL. It's not that print's a medium, and the web's a medium, and you get to migrate between media. The Web is a metamedium that turns everything it grips into network-culture. *So it's easy to see that mags are in for it. What's a little harder is looking at the hollow shell of your once-favorite antique shop and realizing that's all about eBay. "Gee, I'm on the web all the time now... time for a stroll, it's a sunny day... Gosh, my neighborhood's full of spooky holes." Gothic High-Tech. *Oh, but that's not all. Wanna see some "Favela Chic?" Cool Chinese piracy of a Bruce Sterling story. http://www.docin.com/p-34476299.html
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #56 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:05
permalink #56 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:05
>We need inexpensive medical technicians doing the same exact tests, procedures, and protocols over and over, exactly the same way each time, with the speed and perfection of incessant practice. That's done now. The medical problem is interpreting the tests with respect to the individual patient presenting, and that is not trivial. The human with stethoscope desperately needs all the help she can get to understand the meaning of the tests - how the result of test 25B five years ago sheds light on the results of test 1097 from last year and the new images that she just received. She has fifteen minutes to figure this out, and then it's time for another patient.
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #57 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:08
permalink #57 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:08
>If you saw the ad, then studied the treatment it mentions against other treatments, assessing potential upsides and downsides, side effects, etc., then discussed it with your physician in an informed way as a possible treatment choice, that would be closer to participatory medicine. Except how informed can most people be? They're going on the basis of popularized summaries posted on the Internet. They don't know basic physiology, chemistry, immunology or genomics, though they convince themselves they do. Sure, research can come up with good questions to ask a doctor, if the patient researcher is smart and well informed to begin with. Otherwise - ask any doctor for horror stories on this subject.
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #58 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:15
permalink #58 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:15
Participatory medicine and the print media. Check this out: http://www.foliomag.com/2009/2009-year-magazines "Times most recent average weekly circulation is somewhere around 3.4 million (the POTY edition is almost certainly substantially more). Thats down 17% from 5 years ago but is still an impressive number. Plus, as Time Inc.s media kits are at pains to remind you, a general interest publication like this also has a substantial amount of pass-on readership (think of all those doctors office waiting rooms, for example). "So whos advertising? Turns out that the #1 type of space being bought, by far, isnt really advertising at all. Its prescription drug legal disclosures. Yup: 21% of Times Person of the Year ad pages was taken up by those comforting warnings about suicidal thoughts or tendencies or increased risk of heart attack or stroke. On average, there were 1.4 pages of text disclosures for each page of health ads that contained a photograph. "All-told, health advertising comprised 40% of total ad pages for 14 prescription drugs and 3 OTC ones. The biggest spender was AstraZeneca, whose Seroquel medication for bipolar depression contained a whopping 5 pages of disclaimers to accompany the one color photo of a very sad-looking lady sitting on a concrete step. (side note: I just saw one of their TV ads for the same medication, and the contraindications and warnings droned on so long that it felt like I was watching a 30 min. infomercial)..."
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #59 of 223: Michael Heap (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:29
permalink #59 of 223: Michael Heap (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:29
From Michael Heap, submitted via email: Bruce - on a slight left of field tangent - how do you see hope (the emotion not the hacker conference) rolling out over the next year as the key to meaningful change. to my eyes (yes im still sat in a middle eastern gas/petro-chemical microstate propping up old media) at the moment im plugged into the green movement across the gulf as the current regime flails around trying to deal with the new younger genoration demanding change. one thing in the last 6 months ive noticed is the hope in the young iranian populace is very very strong, despite the backlash of the regeime (maybe i should put it because of the regeime - they have something to push against). what i find utterly facinating is the change the young ones want - its not the shiny western democratic ideals sold by the west - they seem intent on rejecting those - its to forge their own newly minted islamic based liberalism looking back to the pre-shah iran. With iran headed in one direction, turkey heads another from liberalism toward a stricter interpretation of islam, the introduction of veil for women and a rejection of western values, again acompanied with hope of a new turkey. is hope for change (again backed up by actions by those who can change - ie the youth) the way forward, by those who are disenfranchised to re-build their societys?
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #60 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:45
permalink #60 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:45
Stet: "Except how informed can most people be? They're going on the basis of popularized summaries posted on the Internet. They don't know basic physiology, chemistry, immunology or genomics, though they convince themselves they do. Sure, research can come up with good questions to ask a doctor, if the patient researcher is smart and well informed to begin with. Otherwise - ask any doctor for horror stories on this subject." I think you make several unfortunate assumptions: - That "most people" can't be informed enough to have active input into their own medical treatment. - That without a physician's knowledge and training, patients can't have useful knowledge, background, or input. - That patients inherently assume they know more than they do. Those aren't necessarily correct assumptions, and I'd like to hear some of the "horror stories" - the worst I've heard is that patients sometime misinterpret what the read online and it takes a few extra minutes of the doctor's time to explain something. In fact, many of the strongest advocates for participatory medicine are physicians who really want patients that are better informed and can be peers within the process of treatment. It's not just about having patients be more involved, though. Check out the definition of Participatory Medicine: "Participatory medicine is a model of medical care, based on the development of a team that includes the patient (often referred to as an e-patient), patient groups & specialized social networks, the entire care team, and clinical researchers in a collaborative relationship. It requires equal access to all the data and equal rights in the decision making process, based on all the data available, the information gathered and the collective wisdom of peer social networks. It is based on the understanding that optimally treating an individual patient suffering from a complex medical condition is often beyond any single individual's ability." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participatory_medicine
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #61 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 5 Jan 10 13:02
permalink #61 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 5 Jan 10 13:02
>*Migrating human brains onto a computer network: about as likely as migrating human brains onto plankton. Not human brains, human memories/personalities/identities. Been a staple of science fiction in one state or form forever. Where's the impossibility? *Science fiction adores impossible stuff. Time machines, faster than light starships, androids you can marry, artificial intelligences. Those are sci-fi staples specifically because they're not practical, and they don't or can't really exist. *If there were flying cars around (and we could drive them without murdering a hundred times the number we already kill on nice flat highways) then they wouldn't be science fiction. Science fiction is particularly enamoured of stuff that can be made to sound plausible, and yet can't be dragged into popular use. That way it keeps its sci-fi gloss and remains in the genre instead of in the business pages. *That said, let's consider a platform suitable for downloading a human personality. I don't think that machine is remotely likely, because the brain is not a dry, crisp network of logic circuits. The brain is a big bloody multicellular gland full of rushing liquids and hormonal goo. But even assuming there was such a platform, and that it worked, nobody would hold it still to put human brains on it. Society wouldn't be able to get there from here. *The thing's capacities for other purposes would be colossal. There'd be whole hosts of industries and applications exploding out of a platform like that. If a thing like that were real, we wouldn't even bother to have "brains." We'd be pulling out the chunks of wet tissue and plugging in new stuff that really worked. Our human "personalities" wouldn't be personalities. We would no longer be remotely human, not a bit of it. The whole idea of doing such a thing would seem like a phantom from a vanished age. *The first guy who used that augment to become President, or make a billion dollars, would throw the whole scheme into a cocked hat. Tech development there would turn into a wild scramble over the issues that really interest us, self-realization, esteem, love, belonging, security, meeting our everyday needs. *Nothing so wrong with that, but the impossibility gets worse. The path of technical development required to create a brain-downloading device would completely transform society. If we had some humble gadget fit to hold a mouse brain, it would be so powerful that it would mean the end of most every custom, institution, ethical system, philosophy, ideology, everything we know. We'd be entirely busy haplessly adjusting to the spinoff apps. We'd forget all about conserving brains. *There are situations that are easy to dramatize, or that are romantically attractive for philosophical reasons. "Things that are good to think," mind-stretching things. Then there's actual technology as it is deployed by actual societies. The relations of society and technology are very deep, intimate, cultural relations. Nobody understands them. Nobody. *Science fiction is written to entertain people. The Rapture of the Geeks is there to help geeks deal with their buried transcendant impulses and their will-to-power. The technosocial thing that is really going on, it is wet and deep and colloidal and infectious... intimate, domestic... rapturous and paranoid, even.
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #62 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 5 Jan 10 13:13
permalink #62 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 5 Jan 10 13:13
"Hope." A big issue. You know, I'm going to bow to the Maestro in that one. Even a purely moral act that has no hope of any immediate and visible political effect can gradually and indirectly, over time, gain in political significance. Vaclav Havel Hope is a feeling that life and work have meaning. You either have it or you don't, regardless of the state of the world that surrounds you. Vaclav Havel Hope is a state of mind, not of the world. Hope, in this deep and powerful sense, is not the same as joy that things are going well, or willingness to invest in enterprises that are obviously heading for success, but rather an ability to work for something because it is good. Vaclav Havel Hope is definitely not the same thing as optimism. It is not the conviction that something will turn out well, but the certainty that something makes sense, regardless of how it turns out. Vaclav Havel Hope is not the conviction that something will turn out well but the certainty that something makes sense, regardless of how it turns out. Vaclav Havel (((He kept working on that one. That's the one I really like.))) I really do inhabit a system in which words are capable of shaking the entire structure of government, where words can prove mightier than ten military divisions. Vaclav Havel I think theatre should always be somewhat suspect. Vaclav Havel (((Another particular favorite. He's a literary man, our Vaclav.))) If we are to change our world view, images have to change. The artist now has a very important job to do. He's not a little peripheral figure entertaining rich people, he's really needed. Vaclav Havel (((He's really needed, and then he shows up with a bunch of morose wisecracks, and, also, he's bipolar and drunk. Plus, his publisher is broke. There's always hope, though! Come on!))) Isn't it the moment of most profound doubt that gives birth to new certainties? Perhaps hopelessness is the very soil that nourishes human hope; perhaps one could never find sense in life without first experiencing its absurdity. Vaclav Havel (((Explains why the Czechs made him President. For 15 years!))) Just as the constant increase of entropy is the basic law of the universe, so it is the basic law of life to be ever more highly structured and to struggle against entropy. Vaclav Havel (((the physics fan, or rather, the metaphysics fan))) Lying can never save us from another lie. Vaclav Havel Modern man must descend the spiral of his own absurdity to the lowest point; only then can he look beyond it. It is obviously impossible to get around it, jump over it, or simply avoid it. Vaclav Havel None of us know all the potentialities that slumber in the spirit of the population, or all the ways in which that population can surprise us when there is the right interplay of events. Vaclav Havel Sometimes I wonder if suicides aren't in fact sad guardians of the meaning of life. Vaclav Havel (((Absurdists, however, live to be 74 and counting despite missing part of a lung))) The attempt to devote oneself to literature alone is a most deceptive thing, and often, paradoxically, it is literature that suffers for it. Vaclav Havel (((More great advice to take to heart.))) The deeper the experience of an absence of meaning - in other words, of absurdity - the more energetically meaning is sought. Vaclav Havel The exercise of power is determined by thousands of interactions between the world of the powerful and that of the powerless, all the more so because these worlds are never divided by a sharp line: everyone has a small part of himself in both. Vaclav Havel
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #63 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 13:39
permalink #63 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 13:39
transfer personality to chips? we aren't talking about something that we know is impossible. >I don't think that machine is remotely likely, because the brain is not a dry, crisp network of logic circuits. The brain is a big bloody multicellular gland full of rushing liquids and hormonal goo. Which supports a neural system with an enormous number of interconnected neurons linked in enormously complex patterns - 10 to the 11th neurons. Each neuron is connected to about 1000 other neurons, creating the staggering total of 10 to the 15 active interconnections. The neurons talk to each other in a time-based pulse code, which is now well on the way to being decoded. We can model the network digitially. Sure, it's complicated. What do we have more important to understand. >v*The thing's capacities for other purposes would be colossal. There'd be whole hosts of industries and applications exploding out of a platform like that. If a thing like that were real, we wouldn't even bother to have "brains." Except what do 'we' have that's more important to "us" than potential immortality? >We'd be pulling out the chunks of wet tissue and plugging in new stuff that really worked. Our human "personalities" wouldn't be personalities. We would no longer be remotely human, not a bit of it. The whole idea of doing such a thing would seem like a phantom from a vanished age. Sure, we wouldn't be in Kansas anymore. but again, that doesn't make the idea impossible.
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #64 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 15:01
permalink #64 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 15:01
>I think you make several unfortunate assumptions: - That "most people" can't be informed enough to have active input into their own medical treatment. Input, sure. But, if it's so straightforward, why does the medical profession exist, and has existed for so long? Because the Internet is a new invention?? The practice of medicine is a tangle of extremely detailed technical information, detective ability, memory and (often) physical skill. Patients can help doctors by keeping good track of their lives. - That without a physician's knowledge and training, patients can't have useful knowledge, background, or input. This is an overstatement. But, again, if this doctor stuff is overestimated in terms of how tough it is, why stop with your own case? Why not help your neighbors, maybe pick up a few bucks. The laws against this are wrong and shortsighted and outdated? - That patients inherently assume they know more than they do. Not always. Many do. People continually do this in all kinds of areas - read any political blog about climate change to see it in action. Vaccination rumors and bogus autism pathology are other examples. >and I'd like to hear some of the "horror stories" - the worst I've heard is that patients sometime misinterpret what the read online and it takes a few extra minutes of the doctor's time to explain something. See above. Not explain, have to argue with a patient, or, much worse, a patient's parent, about biology 101. Or parents going off to quackland. >It requires equal access to all the data and equal rights in the decision making process, based on all the data available, the information gathered and the collective wisdom of peer social networks. >It is based on the understanding that optimally treating an individual patient suffering from a complex medical condition is often beyond any single individual's ability." And that's why a complex medical condition is often handled by a collaboration of two, three or even more specialists. Sure, some patients can add insight. Not all, though, and I can't imagine making it compulsory for doctors.
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #65 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 15:07
permalink #65 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 15:07
The juxtaposition of the Havel quotes with the "consciousness in a box" concept makes me think of those famous fishbowl heads in Futurama. Very handy, access to all those brains, held immortal on hand. I hate to say that anything is impossible, but I agree with Bruce, storing consciousness somewhere outside the body is about as unlikely as it gets. James Cameron's "Avatar" depends on this concept - we've seen it so many times in so many variations that we don't blink, we suspend disbelief readily. As Bruce says above, science fiction often makes the unreal seem real, the impossible seem possible. The occasional accuracy of sci-fi predictions lends even more credibility to science fiction's devices and imaginings. We don't even know what consciousness is, or where exactly the sense of the bounded self emerges... it's fluid and volatile and complex. How would you know what to move where? And how would it be the same, once moved? When you move data, the operation is that you copy it, and delete the original. In moving "heart and soul," what might be lost in the translation? How do you translate organically emerging awareness into ones and zeroes? This makes me think about the technological singularity and the concept of the superintelligent machine. Bruce, have you seen anything in your travels to suggest that, as Kurzweil says, "the singularity is near"?
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #66 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 15:22
permalink #66 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 15:22
To stet's latest: "Input, sure. But, if it's so straightforward, why does the medical profession exist, and has existed for so long? Because the Internet is a new invention?? The practice of medicine is a tangle of extremely detailed technical information, detective ability, memory and (often) physical skill. Patients can help doctors by keeping good track of their lives." I don't disagree with any of that, but I'm not sure how it relates to what I was saying, or your respone? I didn't say anything was straightforward, or that the medical profession shouldn't exist, or that medicine was not complex. We don't seem to be having the same conversation. (I said that stet implied...) "- That without a physician's knowledge and training, patients can't have useful knowledge, background, or input." (stet responds:) "This is an overstatement. But, again, if this doctor stuff is overestimated in terms of how tough it is, why stop with your own case? Why not help your neighbors, maybe pick up a few bucks. The laws against this are wrong and shortsighted and outdated?" Again, you're speaking to a conversation I wasn't having... and I don't think it was an overstatement of what you said, but you know better than I what you were thinking. Nobody said that "this doctor stuff is overestimated in terms of how tough it is." Furthermore, the concept of the e-patient is not, as I think I said earlier, about replacing the doctor with the patient. It's about the patient, doctor, and others in the system peering and working together. And certainly nobody suggested that anyone can and should practice medicine anywhere. I can't see where you're getting that, frankly. (I said...) "- That patients inherently assume they know more than they do." Stet responds: "Not always. Many do. People continually do this in all kinds of areas - read any political blog about climate change to see it in action. Vaccination rumors and bogus autism pathology are other examples." So we agree that it's not inherent. In fact, I think it's unusual in the doctor/patient relationship. I doubt that we can prove your contention or mind, however - not sure where we'd find the data. (I said...) ">and I'd like to hear some of the "horror stories" - the worst I've heard is that patients sometime misinterpret what the read online and it takes a few extra minutes of the doctor's time to explain something." (stet responds:) "See above. Not explain, have to argue with a patient, or, much worse, a patient's parent, about biology 101. Or parents going off to quackland." I'm sure that can happen. Again, probably rare. Again, hard to prove one way or the other. I don't think we're going to agree, so we should probably end this or take it elsewhere. >It requires equal access to all the data and equal rights in the decision making process, based on all the data available, the information gathered and the collective wisdom of peer social networks. >It is based on the understanding that optimally treating an individual patient suffering from a complex medical condition is often beyond any single individual's ability." And that's why a complex medical condition is often handled by a collaboration of two, three or even more specialists. Sure, some patients can add insight. Not all, though, and I can't imagine making it compulsory for doctors.
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #67 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 17:36
permalink #67 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 17:36
>We don't even know what consciousness is, or where exactly the sense of the bounded self emerges... not yet, but the work of Shannon got us closer. >it's fluid and volatile and complex. How would you know what to move where? And how would it be the same, once moved? If it's zeros and ones, you know it's the same. That's what Shannon got. When you move data, the operation is that you copy it, and delete the original. not necessarily In moving "heart and soul," what might be lost in the translation? don't know till we've tried, do we? > How do you translate organically emerging awareness into ones and zeroes? We don't know yet. Does that mean it can't be done?
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #68 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 18:25
permalink #68 of 223: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 5 Jan 10 18:25
"jonl: How would you know what to move where? And how would it be the same, once moved? "stet: If it's zeros and ones, you know it's the same. That's what Shannon got." So human consciousness can be manifest as zeroes and ones? Can you say more about how that works? "jonl: When you move data, the operation is that you copy it, and delete the original. "stet: not necessarily" Okay, I'll bite - how else do you move data? If the original remains, you've copied it. If the original goes away, it's been deleted. But I'm not a computer scientist - I'm sure there's much I don't know about data operations. "jonl: How do you translate organically emerging awareness into ones and zeroes? "stet: We don't know yet. Does that mean it can't be done?" Quite likely.
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #69 of 223: bill braasch (bbraasch) Tue 5 Jan 10 18:57
permalink #69 of 223: bill braasch (bbraasch) Tue 5 Jan 10 18:57
I'm counting on the knowledge acquisition bottleneck to keep it just fuzzy enough. 'this is a 1, but what does it mean?'
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #70 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 19:07
permalink #70 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 19:07
>"stet: If it's zeros and ones, you know it's the same. That's what Shannon got." So human consciousness can be manifest as zeroes and ones? Can you say more about how that works? It doesn't work yet. But consciousness is the product of information-processing -- I mean, what else could it be. And if it's information processing, it presumably could be digital, absent some condition you can cite showing it can't - that's the Shannon contribution. "jonl: When you move data, the operation is that you copy it, and delete the original. "stet: not necessarily" >Okay, I'll bite - how else do you move data? If the original remains, you've copied it. If the original goes away, it's been deleted. You can copy and send it without deleting the original. Think of an mpg file of "Ripple in Still Water" on your computer. You send it to me. I have it, you still have it. Mine is identical to yours. But I'm not a computer scientist - I'm sure there's much I don't know about data operations. Please wiki "Claude Shannon." "jonl: How do you translate organically emerging awareness into ones and zeroes? "stet: We don't know yet. Does that mean it can't be done?" >Quite likely. "I'm sure there's much I don't know about data operations." but you think it's quite likely that it can't be done. Maybe read a little before you decide what's quite likely and what isn't.
inkwell.vue.373
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #71 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 19:08
permalink #71 of 223: for dixie southern iraq (stet) Tue 5 Jan 10 19:08
>I'm counting on the knowledge acquisition bottleneck to keep it just fuzzy enough. 'this is a 1, but what does it mean?' ones and zeros don't mean anything. They are raw information, to be transmitted perfectly using error coding. Meaning is in the mind of the receiver after the message is complete. and one receiver's message is another receiver's noise.
inkwell.vue.373
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #72 of 223: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Wed 6 Jan 10 01:27
permalink #72 of 223: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Wed 6 Jan 10 01:27
Based on my experience with tech support, most people don't really know how to write a bug report. I suspect that there are similar issues with doctors attempting to come up with a diagnosis based on vague complaints. So it seems like one of the most important things we as patients should be able to learn to do is to gather and record data about ourselves. Instead of going in with a vague set of complaints, how about doing some readings and publishing a dataset? Medical sensors and diagnostics becoming much cheaper might lead to something.
inkwell.vue.373
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #73 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 6 Jan 10 01:37
permalink #73 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 6 Jan 10 01:37
*Top ebooks pirated in 2009 by guys with electronic book readers. Man, that gadget-toting reader set is a weird crowd. *Imagine the one guy who read all ten of these ebooks. Either that guy is bi-curious or the hardware is owned by a married couple with some real issues. 1. Kamasutra 2. Adobe Photoshop Secrets 3. The Complete Idiot's Guide to Amazing Sex 4. The Lost Notebooks of Leonardo da Vinci 5. Solar House--A Guide for the Solar Designer 6. Before Pornography--Erotic Writing In Early Modern England 7. Twilight--Complete Series 8. How To Get Anyone To Say YES--The Science Of Influence 9. Nude Photography--The Art And The Craft 10. Fix It--How To Do All Those Little Repair Jobs Around The Home
inkwell.vue.373
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #74 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 6 Jan 10 01:48
permalink #74 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 6 Jan 10 01:48
*The brain thing is not gonna fly. I mean, the notion's gonna hang around because it's so romantically attractive, but it's not important. If it were genuinely important there would be a Cabinet officer in charge of Brain Immortality, and some kind of Brain Immortality StartUp Cluster, probably somewhere around Pittsburgh where they could hang out with Hans Moravec. *The idea is not formally and metaphysically impossible, but it's impossible in the way that a shapely and obedient robot girlfriend from the Stepford Wives Club is impossible. There are plenty of transhumanist geeks who wanna upload their brains, but they are vastly outnumbered by lonely geeks who lack interpersonal skills and wanna get laid by machinery. That's an old scifi idea too, really old, as old as Fritz Lang's METROPOLIS. *We've made some headfakes in that direction since. YouTube's got some awesome videos of foam-rubber Japanese chicks, and there are inflatable dolls and even publicity stunts where geeks marry cartoon characters. But it would be wrong to say we're on some kind of Singularity brink of inventing robot girlfriends. The sci-fi landscape's littered with 'em, and Terminator killer robot-boys too, but they're stage props, not working technologies.
inkwell.vue.373
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Bruce Sterling: State of the World 2010
permalink #75 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 6 Jan 10 02:29
permalink #75 of 223: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 6 Jan 10 02:29
I don't want this to turn into a Rapture of the Geeks lovefest here; people who are into transhumanism are emotionally committed. They're not gonna be rationally argued out of their heartfelt desires, any more than Creationists are gonna go kiss a chimpanzee on the lips and say "Mom." Metaphysical arguments are rarely settled. They just get re-phrased in subtler terms. Time passes, and the debaters re-define victory. "Okay, I said 'Artificial Intelligence' in the 1960s, but I really meant 'Google.' Google is unhuman and really smart just like a 1960s Hard-AI machine, so my ideas about intelligence and what could be done with it were right all along." Well, no. Because Google is a *collective* intelligence which is collating what people are doing... but how boring to split hairs like that! Cool machines that know stuff! We live in an age of wonders! Yeah man! *But, well, look. Human intelligence is not ones and zeros. No. Ones and zeros don't eat lunch. You know when you skip lunch, and you get kind of weak and cranky, and you can't think very well? That's because the brain is metabolizing a flow of chemical energy into the body, chewing it, breaking it up with a huge gut system, and particles flow into your bloodstream and *you think with that.* That's you. Take that away, and you die. *You also have sensory input, you sleep and dream and have sex and get exercise, and all these things profoundly affect the brain, consciousness and the personality, and none of those phenomena are about ones and zeros inside a "platform." *If you take people and put them in a sensory-deprivation tank, where it's just them and their cognitive platform, they start hallucinating. Rather promptly. That's because there is no analytical ones-and-zeros ghost in our heads that can be pulled out with a tea-strainer. *The brain's a gland. Anatomically, the brain is quite like an ovary or a testicle. If you talked about the bit-streams and nerve networks in your ovaries and testicles, people would immediately sense that there was something fishy going on with your reasoning. But if you talk about consciousness and personality, you can immediately hide the issue inside a long-accepted Descartian body-mind split. Even though -- mind you -- people with ovaries have feminine brains and people with testicles have masculine brains. Would you really like to have a de-masculinized, de-sexed brain? Isn't gender something that has rather a lot to do with our "personalities"? You don't get gender behaviors without gender glands. *So, let's say you fully mimic your testicle. Scan it with the same techniques as the brain scan. There it is: testicle on a chip, with an operating system, thank you Microsoft Windows XXXVII. Are you gonna have children with that scan? Is that, in any formal or pragmatic sense, really a testicle? It's your model of a testicle, made through a certain device and encoded in certain ways. Would you expect it to behave exactly like a testicle? If you kick it does it howl, if you cut it does it bleed? Is it going to go through puberty and viropause, developing in the way that testicles actually develop? No. It's a medical model of a testicle, so to claim that it's actually "your testicle" is a category error. *The same would be true, except much more so, of your human personality on a chip. There would be a program on a chip, but it wouldn't behave remotely like a human personality. You'd need, really, to scan not just a handy testicle, but a whole functioning body. Adrenal glands, heartbeat, meals.... Skin, eyelids, eyes, retinas... Sleep, dreaming... Some sex is generally considered a good idea... So you'd better model somebody else on your chip too, plus a home... children... some rich sensory input, reruns of THE HONEYMOONERS, tortilla chips, whatever... Kinda piling Pelion upon Ossa there, and that's why the idea's not credible. IMAGINABLE, sure, popular, kinda, credible, not really. Uploading's about as credible as going to heaven. Tremendously compelling idea. Ancient. Indestructible. Irrefutable. People pretend to believe in heaven all the time, mind you. Huge majorities of people, even. Tell somebody their Grandma's gone forever, she's just ashes... they get really upset. They won't nod and agree just because you present them with some overwhelming evidence. We already have a magic uploading site where there is no marriage or giving in marriage (unless you're Moslem). It's not much use to sit down with someone and argue that the blue dome of Heaven isn't really a dome, like we thought; that we've got instruments now and we can pretty well tell now that there are no gates and angels up there, that Jupiter isn't Jupiter and Saturn isn't Saturn. *Believers will just smile at you in sophisticated fashion and say, well, that was just metaphorical... that life has no meaning otherwise... that they'd kill themselves if they were forced to think like you think. *You get used to that after a while. It's okay. On to another topic... Hittite conspiracies, color theory, trilobites, the manned space program. There's plenty of fish in the sea.
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