SILICON SOAPWARE wafting your way along the slipstreams of the Info Highway from Bubbles = Tom Digby = bubbles@well.com http://www.well.com/~bubbles/ Issue #169 New Moon of September 29, 2008 Contents copyright 2008 by Thomas G. Digby, with a liberal definition of "fair use". In other words, feel free to quote excerpts elsewhere (with proper attribution), post the entire zine (verbatim, including this notice) on other boards that don't charge specifically for reading the zine, link my Web page, and so on, but if something from here forms a substantial part of something you make money from, it's only fair that I get a cut of the profits. Silicon Soapware is available via email with or without reader feedback. Details of how to sign up are at the end. ********************* Back in Silicon Soapware #167 I noted a feeling of melancholy associated with late summer. The days were starting to get shorter, and the stores were starting their "Back to School" promotions. Even though summer was still pretty much in full swing, its days were numbered. Now, with the passage of the Equinox, I don't feel that end-of-summer melancholy any more. I'm past the time of mourning for summer, and I'm ready to get on with the rest of the year. There's a science fiction convention coming up in early October, followed a few weeks later by Halloween. Yuletide festivities will follow in due course, after which the cycle will begin again. And so the Wheel turns. ********************* Speaking of the Wheel of the Year, California is on a fiscal year system wherein the Legislature is supposed to pass a new budget every year. The fiscal year starts with July, which means that in an ideal world the budget would have been passed by June. But California, alas, is not in an ideal world. The Legislature seldom gets the budget done on time. It's almost always anywhere from a few days to a month or so late. This year it was finally approved just a few days ago, almost three months late. Then they get to do it all over again next year. Will it take as long? Will it take longer? What if some year's budget NEVER gets done? The state treasurer will be able to muddle through for a while, just like they did this time. But that can only go so far. Eventually the entire state government will grind to a halt. Then what? In our "real" world the state judiciary or the Feds or somebody would find some excuse to step in. But what if they didn't? The Bay Area (San Francisco, Silicon Valley, etc.) might try to carry on as a bunch of more or less independent city-states. I'm not expert enough to judge how successful they would be. Things could get really interesting when various foreign powers start messing around in the region. What of Southern California? They would have a major problem: Water. The aqueducts that area depends on would be at the mercy of rural warlords. Parts of the Bay Area might also have that problem, but not to as great a degree because they're closer to the sources of the water. So what if the cities can't solve the water problem? Would we see a massive migration to other areas, sort of the reverse of the migrations from the Dust Bowl back in the 1930's? And what of the longer term? Would some great ruler eventually arise to reunite the warring tribes and city-states into one mighty kingdom? I could see this as an epic novel or a series of shorter stories that could be made into a series of movies, and/or some kind of game. Think it would sell? Or has it already been done? ********************* There are lots of questions we don't know the answers to. I suspect there are at least as many answers we don't know the questions to. ********************* Something reminded me of that bit about an infinite number of monkeys typing out Shakespeare's plays on an infinite set of typewriters. If instead of traditional typewriters you gave them computer keyboards, would they then write all the documentation for all the software ever written? And once they've done the documentation, would they also write the code itself, thus eliminating the need to hire programmers? Some might object that the effort of finding anything useful in the monkeys' output files would cost more than creating the same software the conventional way. But on the other hand, the result may contain more innovative stuff that most human programmers are too mired in old habits to think of. Also, it may be possible to get around the cost problem by automating the process. First, run the files through some kind of analyzer that figures out what language a given file is in: Modern English, Elizabethan English, C++, some shell scripting language, hex files of machine code, or something else. Put the computer-language source code through the relevant compilers or assemblers or whatever and save the resulting output files. It might or might not be worthwhile at this point to also look for the documentation. It should be there, although it may take a bit of hunting to find it. This could probably also be automated. One possibility might be to try to correlate such things as menu item names in the documentation with the corresponding items in the source code files. Once you think you know which instructions go with which programs you're you're ready for human review. Try running the software and see if it does anything useful. Verify that the instructions are clear, correct, and complete. And don't forget to have a lawyer take a look at the User Agreement and advertising copy and such. Or maybe you can save money by skipping the human review. The cost savings would let you price everything much lower, and the marketing could play on the customers' sense of adventure: "Nobody knows what this software does, so we're selling it cheap." Another point: The monkeys will have also typed every possible email address, so your marketing people won't have to buy lists of addresses from spammers. That's an additional cost savings. So is this going to be the next big thing that will lift Silicon Valley out of its most recent slump? Stay tuned. ********************* Who does Nostradamus say will win the upcoming elections? Yes, as I mentioned in a previous issue, his prediction that Kefauver would be elected President in 1952 was wrong. But I'm still kind of curious as to who he favors for 2008. ********************* A few nights back I noticed a moth outside my window, repeatedly bumping up against the glass, apparently in a futile attempt to get to the lamp inside. It occurred to me that were I to open the window and let it in I would be doing it a disservice. Yes, the moth appeared to want to go to the light, but once it got there it would have nothing to do but circle aimlessly until it collapsed from fatigue or starvation or heat from the lamp. It would find neither food nor drink nor a potential mate. It could potentially lay eggs on the light globe, but the hatchlings would find no sustenance. All in all, it would be a futile endeavor, doomed to failure. So the kinder course was to deny it entry and douse the light. Let it seek its destiny elsewhere. I was reminded of things I have now and then wanted but which the gods did not see fit to give me. Would they have turned out as badly for me as access to the lamp would have turned out for that moth? ********************* A thought occurred to me while I was picking up a friend on the way to lunch: Assume you have a device with cell-phone and GPS navigation capabilities. I think it would be good to be able to give it a command like "Direct me to [Location X]. When we get [close to Location X], send [Message Y] to [Person Z]." The definition of "close" could be specified by the user in terms of distance or travel time, with the messages ranging from pre-defined things like "I'm five minutes away" to whatever text or audio the user wanted to type in or record. Has this been done yet? ********************* All the tumult and shouting about the economy and the stock market and such leads to thoughts of how a sustainable economic system might work in something closer to an ideal world. For one thing, it should not be to anyone's advantage to encourage others to consume more. If you invent a new and better way to do something it's OK for you to let people know your new invention is available. And to the extent that it's better (or at least not as bad) for humanity and the environment in general than whatever had existed before, it's OK to encourage people to use it. But beyond that, we should not be encouraging people to blindly use up more stuff just for the sake of boosting sales. It should not encourage the production of goods with built-in self-destructs. Likewise, it should not encourage wanton waste. If designing something to last longer would make it cost more to manufacture, then it's OK to design it for a limited life. But it should not be OK to spend more to add "features" whose main purpose is to shorten the life of the product or otherwise make it less useful. The poster child for this is a non-returnable "rental" DVD somebody has been promoting. Once you take it out of its sealed package, chemical reactions with oxygen in the air cause it to become unreadable after a few days. Then you "return" it by throwing it away. Yes, this may create jobs at the DVD factory, and at the store, and at the landfill, but at what cost to the planet? And at what cost to people's attitudes about conserving resources? It may not encourage people to think in terms of "looking for work" or "creating jobs". Back in days of old, when the combined efforts of all the members of the tribe were needed in the struggle for survival, it made sense to think in terms of "earning a living". It encouraged people to look for things that needed doing and then do them. But we seem to not be in that situation now. There may be large numbers of people whose efforts are, strictly speaking, not needed. So what do we do? Force others to work less efficiently so as to need all available workers? Make up "busy work" for them to do? Those have been the traditional answers to this problem. Now it may be time for something else. But what? Questions abound, but the people in power don't seem to be answering them. They're still assuming the old models. And maybe they're stuck with that, at least for now, because that's what most of the voters are expecting to hear from them. So it may be up to us to seek out new kinds of answers and bring them to the attention of enough of the public that the people in power will be free to consider them. ********************* Hidden Wings On a bright morning in the Season of New Beginnings, As the sun warms the earth, Fairies are trying their wings. Some take a running start and leap into the air, While others climb onto a rock or tree or something To ease the effort of the initial takeoff. Results vary. Those whose wings are strongest, Or who chance upon a fortunate gust of wind, Or are otherwise blessed by Fate, Soar high into the sky, While those less fortunate Only skim the treetops for a precious moment Before tumbling to earth, perhaps to try again. They say that all who persevere eventually succeed, Although how true that is I cannot say. The only real doom is on a nearby mountain. The mountain offers many good jumping-off places From which many a Fairy has soared high into the blue. But it also has hidden peril. It is home to wingless creatures, Some good, some evil, and some who are neither good nor evil But simply Other. Fairies climbing the mountain often hide their wings Lest the more jealous of the wingless ones take offense. Therein lies the peril: From any jumping-off point one can always see Another place, higher up the hill, and seemingly better. So the temptation is to keep climbing, wings still hidden, Until the next launching platform is reached. And as one goes higher and higher up the mountain, One also starts to see the gold and jewels glittering in the ground, And is surrounded by wingless ones whose only goal Is to live as high up the mountain as possible, Surrounded by sparkling treasure. The treasure-seekers are fascinating indeed, As long as you keep your wings hidden. That is the real doom: Not the unlucky wind that brings a flyer crashing to the earth, Nor the wrath of the wingless ones when a wing slips into view. It is forgetting one's reason for the climb And forgetting that one indeed has wings. --- Tom Digby Written 14:47 10/06/2003 Edited 09:13 10/07/2003 Typo Fixed 23:41 08/22/2004 Edited 15:16 01/22/2006 ********************* HOW TO GET SILICON SOAPWARE EMAILED TO YOU There are two email lists, one that allows reader comments and one that does not. Both are linked from http://www.plergb.com/Mail_Lists/Silicon_Soapware_Zine-Pages.html If you are already receiving Silicon Soapware and want to unsubscribe or otherwise change settings, the relevant URL should be in the footer appended to the end of this section in the copy you received. Or you can use the above URL to navigate to the appropriate subscription form, which will also allow you to cancel your subscription or change your settings. -- END --