Modeling Changes in the Bering Sea Ecosystem

Presented by Jeff Dooley MS

How Ocean warming, Fishing, Seals, Orcas, Otters, Sea Urchins, and Kelp may be interrelated within a complex eco-system undergoing profound change

Here is a simplified, hypothetical "map" of the system, so you can see how things could be connected.

This map (thumbnailed on right) is a conceptual system, a model offering one of many possible explanations for what seems to be happening. It provides a graphical way of viewing, and critiquing, a hypothetical feedback system. Using this map, I've built a simulation of these structures to see how such a simplified system might act over time, given the assumptions in the model. It is not meant as a map of the Bering Sea eco-system, but more as a systematic, structured basis for infromed conversation and further study. Graphs showing the output of the simulation run are just below. The part of the model which includes the variables for "fish" and "fishing industry" is derived from the "Fishbanks" model, developed by Dr. Dennis Meadows.

Click here or on the thumbnail map on the right to see it full sized.

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Here are two graphs showing how different parts of the model respond over time

Graph one: the ecosystem

Graph two: the fishing economics

This graph is nearly identical to the output of the "Fishbanks" model of Dr. Dennis Meadows

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