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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #101 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:17
permalink #101 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:17
R.U. Sirius (rusirius) Sun 10 Jan 2016 (01:25 PM) Theres a narrative thats popular particularly among economic conservatives, but also among mainstream politicos in general, that contrary to popular sentiments, things are going pretty great because the poorest of the worlds poor people are doing better there has been a global reduction in poverty. They point to UN statistical reports and so forth. Were supposed to conclude that neoliberal globalized markets are pretty awesome. I wonder if Bruce has explored this arguments and what his thoughts are about them. ******************** *Well, I've certainly noticed such screeds myself. I applaud RU/Ken for his sensitive cultural antennae there. However, I don't entirely agree with the premise of the question. *Commonly, yes, it is conservatives who like to trot out the ever-popular Pangloss "Best of All Possible Worlds" line. Conservatives are always in favor of the established order, for conserving it is their very purpose. "If it's not broke, don't fix it." They may be benefiting by it personally -- but they don't lie about it their fondness for it. They live sincerely within the Dad Knows Best camp. *I can hear that argument: because I've lived in places where the established order went straight to hell. Hell: pretty bad! Bridges, plumbing, power lines, health-care, education, civil rights: pretty good! *With that said, the Right has no lock-in on empty, upbeat motivational chatter. It is very human. The Left has quite a similar line, almost as rigid, just as time-honored. *"Keep Hope Alive. We Shall Overcome." The people of the Left need to struggle. Why? Because the aspirational, progressive vigor of "the struggle" is inherently good in and of itself, regardless of the pragmatic outcome. Whatever is conserved by the ideological adversary is whatever should be changed. If we don't find some popular discontent, we gotta whip up some. For the sake of our grand old party tradition, basically. *In this oppositional cultural sensibility, a "progressive" can never err, any more than a "conservative" can err within his own. Even though time passes relentlessly, no "progressive" can ever become archaic, by definition. If some failure within that alleged "progress" occurs, it is never some straightforward political blunder -- like, say, the catastrophic Prohibition amendment in the USA. No: any failure of the aspirations of the Left is always about a poisonous false consciousness. *The people need to rise up, stand up, that's all! If only those disenchanted, sadly pessimistic masses could catch onto their actual class interests! Get out there, pep 'em up, organize them for a better world! One rush and a push and the land is ours. *I don't want to engage in false-equivalencies here; I don't claim that the left and right in 2016 are merely Red versus Blue. The American right has visibly lost its senses and has abandoned contact with objective reality. The American left is conservative: it's reduced to the prosper of Hillary Clinton, an elderly, backward-looking figure whose meager political appeal, such as it is, is 1990s nostalgic. *That's a painful thing to say within an American domestic context. However, nobody living outside the paranoid armed borders of the USA has any delusions about the state of sentiments within it. Even a teenage semiliterate Kurdish rug-weaving housewife can read the political barometer about (a) some inevitable Yankee bombs and (b) frenzied waves of Yankee bombs.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #102 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:21
permalink #102 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:21
*So: what is really different in 2016 about the modern radical "conservatism"? The problem is that the global market neoliberal capitalism of the go-go 1990s, the Washington Consensus child of a previous Clinton Administration, has nothing much to offer to "conservatives." It is a libertarian ideology, it is globalized, flat, de-cultured, agnostic, value-free. The economic liberty offers nothing to conserve. There is no cozy status-quo to be conservative about, under Internet Counterrevolution. *The haywire global market is not a force for anyone's cultural stability. It suffers repeated wrenching crises -- vastly bigger and weirder than bonkers little Bitcoin, even -- while the only visible major winners from the decaying status quo are the Chinese Comintern and maybe 80 people, the lottery-winners, the few, freaky, off-the-charts mogul oligarchs, who are the one percent's, 1% one percent. These freaked-out Koch Bros types, yanked from their obscurity by the invisible robot hand of the 2010s market, are nowhere near "conservative." No genuine and sincere political or cultural "conservative" would ever trust these contemporary monsters with a burnt-out match. *The "Stacks"? Worse! Bezos owns the Washington Post! *So, the dismally bewildered American "conservative" Right is, in historical fact, super-radical now. They're not conservative in any historical sense of that term. They're one sneeze away from armed insurrection. They would promptly go for that, in a full-bore Tea Party style, except for the stark fact that the various cults of the fractured Right would first turn their Walmart guns on each other. Like any social group seized by unreasonable fanaticism, they fear their own heretics much more than they fear the unbelievers.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #103 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:25
permalink #103 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:25
*That's the existent 2016 situation. It's acute within the USA, but not different in kind from political developments elsewhere; it's just the manifestation of genuinely global problems within the hegemon power. It's pretty bad news that we lack a functional conservative attitude (conservatism should never be a "movement"). In many ways, it's like the world-wide destabilization of Islam, where a customarily sleepy and silent demographic loses its composure and starts blowing up its own mosques. *So, to return to RU's assertion there, I do get it about the peppy Optimists Club attitude -- it's a matter of temperament, some people like it and emotionally need it. However, this forced-march optimism that RU is talking about has a creepy, whistling past the graveyard feel to me. I don't think it's healthy for us. *Sure, it's great that infant mortality is down within the Former Third World. That happened because the medical fixes became cheap, not because the powers-that-be give any damn about the well-being of infants. Infant mortality in the US is sky-high -- not to mention the USA's unique and endless political frenzies about abortion and child-care. *But why dwell not the problems? "Things are groovy, calm down, there's never been a better time to be alive!" I do hear the rose-tinted goggles appeal, but I don't just parse the UN statistics, I actually live in this world. I'm out for lunch today on Jan 11, 02106. It is shirt-sleeve weather on the Danube today in early January, on a river where people use to ice-skate. *I don't have to be a professional grievance-monger to recognize that the planet's physical reality is seriously imperiled. It's not the immediate, biblically Apocalyptic end of the world that the world's poles are melting away in 2016. However, any society that would allow that numbed drift into genuine, world-scale security threat should never be preaching a hands-off, go along get along, laissez-faire philosophy. Nobody can laissez their faire when their house is underwater and their suburbs are on fire. It's unbearably, fatally stupid,like dreamily saying that malaria comes from bad air while your child dies of fever sweating on a cot.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #104 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:30
permalink #104 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:30
*The morale-boosting gets tragicomical after a while, ludicrous, like that raucous last reel of MONTY PYTHON'S LIFE OF BRIAN, where the main lead of the film has been crucified, and the miserable doomed and condemned are cheering one other up with fatal nails pounded through them. "Aw c'mon Brian! Chin up boy! Give it a little whistle! Always look on the bright side of life!" *I saw that film, and I laughed raucously, but I don't want to convince everyone that that movie scene is funny. For me, sure, yeah, but I don't seek to harsh the mellow of the self-appointed motivationalists for mankind. Especially if they're fellow science fiction writers who are trying to recapture a popular genre's lost jet-pack propeller-head whirliness. I understand and sympathize with the problem there. It's important for a literary tradition to closely compare itself to previous generations of writers. We should earnestly strive for some benchmarks of human sanity. How can you know if you're miserable now, if you don't hearken back to the expressed attitudes of other people at other times, and see how it is possible for people to feel? *Cultural periods have a sensibility. So does our own cultural period. If you lack any understanding of other historical sensibilities, then you might be innocently happy, but you're a hick. Your culture is mere folk-culture. You know very little, you are a naif.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #105 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:32
permalink #105 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:32
*I hear that praiseworthy struggle for awareness within the literary version of the neo-optimist ramble. However, that neo-optimism is not "mainstream conservatism." It doesn't really deserve the dignity of that large, grand label, because it's reactionary, and not conservative. It doesn't sincerely claim that we ourselves should properly be happy at this time, because our situation is really truly genuinely good now. It is deceitful: it hearkens back to earlier standards of more apparent cultural vigor, and it reproaches us for a present-day bad attitude. *When you look at the achievements of a genuinely dynamic culture, this phony boosterism is absent from their scene. Nobody is pounding the podium, like these confused or disingenuous neo-optimists, and telling everybody to cheer up. Whenever things are genuinely prosperous, that fake-cheerful rhetoric is entirely unnecessary to people. People are immersed in the general frenzy of the forward rush, like they were during, say, the 1990s dot com boom.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #106 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:32
permalink #106 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:32
*I enjoyed that 1990s Long Boom quite a lot. In fact, I went well out of my way to publicly enjoy it, because I knew it wouldn't last. And it did not, in fact, last, but while it did, I used to invite every wacky lunatic at Austin SXSW over to my house for huge beer-busts. We enjoyed that hugely. *The tone of WELL State of the World 2016 is quite dark, dank and sticky, but that's because things are really are, objectively, statistically, no-kidding, dark, dark and sticky. We cyberpunks can party when things are good. Give us a chance: free information, miniskirts, recreational smart-drugs, extensive credit lines, who can't like all that.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #107 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:34
permalink #107 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:34
*People want things to turn out well in the future. It's human: people tell each other "Good Morning," they don't say "It's another bleak day where you're on your own!" *If you understand human behavior historically, within the broad, multi-century scale, you can second-guess people; you know that their gold rushes finish ugly, that every boozy night at the sexy pick-up bar ends sad for the last ones out the door. *For a long time, I wrote speculative, future-oriented science fiction, and the general reaction was, "Wow, these literary fantasies are really dark and scary." Were they, in fact, dark, or just well-researched? What kind of world do we actually inhabit during 2016? It's certainly not the kind of world where perky, self-satisfied, and confident bourgeois people can properly say, "Oh well, William Gibson was merely a morbid eccentric." *On the contrary, our 2016 is a world where the recently deceased David Bowie, he who composed the utterly apocalyptic DIAMOND DOGS album: "Ten thousand people split into small tribes, coveting the highest of the sterile skyscrapers like packs of dogs assaulting the glass fronts of Love Me Avenue" (forgive me here, I'm quoting the deceased poet entirely from memory) -- anyway, David Bowie died, and people in 02016 are like: "David! Yeah! What an artiste! A prophet! Yeah! Thin White Duke, he was so great! He sang to millions yet we heard it within our own hearts!"
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #108 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:38
permalink #108 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 00:38
*So, RU, to sum up, they are wrong but I forgive them. I mean that I forgive the neo-optimists. I would never presume to forgive Bowie: he did splendidly; real futurists have children, and Bowie's son, Duncan Jones, is a major creative figure in 2016. I follow Duncan's work with all due care. I am sorry for Duncan's human loss this week. My own parents are dead, I understand this tragic aspect of human experience, though there is never much one can say to cheer up the bereaved. *As for the neo-optimists, they're trying to cheer us up, but it doesn't work on me because I kind of worry about them. They're not realists. They're not teaching us reality, they are obfuscating reality because, at heart, they are fearful. If they had any real answer's to mankind's predicament, they wouldn't wave their cheer-up banners, they'd shut up and do something useful, large-scale and effective. *They won't get that done. They're not a powerful, influential group, they're too small scale, and they won't deserve a lot of attention because they are self-deceitful. So, although I know they are there, I don't like to beat them up. That quarrel is not worth it. I get their motives, they'll find some small audience: I can't cruelly deny them their sensibility. It's like beating up steampunks because they like top hats. *No, worse: it's like beating up Parsees. An ancient, dogged, dwindling people, the Parsees. May their God bless them. I despise people who bully the Parsees. "Zoroaster doesn't exist, you fools! What about Jesus, Mohammed, Buddha, Moses, Brahma, Vishnu and Shiva: stop worshipping some Ahura-Mazda that no player cares about, and get in the goddamn ranks!" Let them be, the Parsees. Of course they are metaphysically wrong, and in the long term doomed, but who isn't? Give them space! Give them duration!
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #109 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Tue 12 Jan 16 03:22
permalink #109 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Tue 12 Jan 16 03:22
Here's a direct link to Vales's newsletter: http://www.researchpubs.com/category/newsletter/
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #110 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Tue 12 Jan 16 03:24
permalink #110 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Tue 12 Jan 16 03:24
For those of you off Well: (This asynchronous conversation will continue for two weeks, so check back every day or two if you find it interesting.) (Only members of the WELL can post directly to the conversation, but others can send questions or comments to inkwell at well.com, and our hosts can post them here.)
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #111 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Tue 12 Jan 16 03:54
permalink #111 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Tue 12 Jan 16 03:54
(Slippage) Classic (bruces) rant, which we all live for here on the WELL. Thank you RU, for sparking that. So, Bruce, we are "here", now, we knew chaotic disruption was coming and in fact many us us were cheering for it, like Country Joe and the Fish's anthemic "whooppee, we're all gonna die"...but it's not looking as cool as we might have hoped for after all. The world-wide governments seem incapable of addressing the real problems, the money folk seem to just want to ride it out and hope their space vehicles might be built in time to escape (to where?)...for the rest of us, bound to the planet, where do we go from here? Seems like we need to work up some new paradigms, but will they be any more successful, or just co-opted by the men in back rooms smoking cigars and drinking their cognacs at their private clubs and secure retreats. Current mantra has been "go local" "sustainable", yada yada. Not to seem too pessimistic but I don't see how that changes "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" routine? What chances do 'new' paradigms and out of the box thinking have? How do we break out the us/them box and forge a "we" box...Or is that naive thinking as well?
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #112 of 179: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 12 Jan 16 07:37
permalink #112 of 179: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 12 Jan 16 07:37
We chuckle and nod and say what a great rant that was, do we really get it? If you look through historical cartoons from magazines like the New Yorker and the Saturday Evening Post, you'll find as one of the recurring images a bearded guy in a robe on a street corner, carrying a sign that says something like "Repent - the end is near!" A guy in a college class I took on "The Question of Authority in Literature" called _Gravity's Rainbow_ "just another shaggy apocalypse story," a phrase that stuck with me... dismissive of the apocalypse, "can't happen here..." I was raised on a diet of 50s television, where there was no hint of apocalypse, no war, no genocide, no real peril, where father knew best and all the lawns were well-manicured, the order of suburban America. A naif, as Bruce says. "Heart of Darkness" was, after all, just a story... Life in Metropolis, life on Elysium, orderly, clean, manageable... It's tempting to dismiss signs of apocalypse, and to grin when you consider potential human extinction, as though it's just a fiction, one of many potential paths forward, but always avoidable... always a happy ending. Once, after a long night of meditative consideration (and possibly alteration), I watched the sunrise, felt the music swell within me, watched for the credits... "The End." But nothing happened. The sun rose, the day was bright, life went on. A bit frightened that, in fact, life does go on, there's no happy ending, and then the inevitable - at some point life does NOT go on, but ends, and the end is ... an unknown. After many years of meditation I've matured in my thinking about all this... about the cycles of life, as sure as you have pleasure you'll have pain. As sure as you have your life to live, you'll die, ultimately, and your death will be yours alone... in a sense, you're alone in the universe. In a sense, you're not you at all, you're just a bundle of process with an illusory executive, a biological operating system.... But I digress... I know that human apocalypse is potential, probably inevitable, as our habitation renders the earth uninhabitable, at least by this one crazy species. At the moment I see blue sky and sunshine, but storms are inevitable... Anthropogenic climate change presents a problem of coordination, a requirement for agreement to change whole cultures, ways of life that have emerged around seemingly boundless sources of energy and associated uncontrolled spew of by-products, the implications of which became too slowly clear to the smartest, and are still unclear to those with less comprehension and foresight. It's become a political issue, because politics is how we coordinate. No obvious political solution to a problem that is, to many of us, so clearly real, and eventually catastrophic. This is frustrating: we don't have any system of control that will mitigate the problem with any kind of urgency. We can barely control our individual selves, really, so why should we think that we can find the global political will to fix a problem before it is completely in our face obvious, which will be too late? I'm not chuckling at Bruce's rant, it's actually chilling. And I'm not doing enough, are you?
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #113 of 179: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 12 Jan 16 07:40
permalink #113 of 179: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 12 Jan 16 07:40
One thing I *am* doing, with RU Sirius, Krist Novoselic, et al: http://opensourceparty.net/ "The Open Source Party is a political movement that derives both inspiration and methods from Open Source software principles. The fundamental Open Source principles as they apply to this party, where laws, policies, and political processes are seen as a body of code, are: * Transparency: the code, and any changes to the code, are visible and understandable. * The code is accessible and modifiable. * Inclusion: anyone can access the code and propose modifications, which may be accepted by democratic consensus, or by executive decision in a framework decided democratically. As a matter of scope, we limit our activity to the United States but encourage development of a global Open Source party that creates models to work in other national contexts. Our effort is meant have a democratizing transformative effect that is fair to all. Were committed to uses of technology to create platforms that will support our mission."
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #114 of 179: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 12 Jan 16 07:41
permalink #114 of 179: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 12 Jan 16 07:41
It's notoriously difficult to start a political party or movement and have any real influence or effect, but old ways of thinking about, and doing, politics are literally killing us.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #115 of 179: Stefan Jones (jonl) Tue 12 Jan 16 08:04
permalink #115 of 179: Stefan Jones (jonl) Tue 12 Jan 16 08:04
Via email from our pal, Stefan Jones: On my walk home from the supermarket* last night I heard a great piece on Fresh Air; a contemplation on the word "gig" and the future of work: http://www.npr.org/2016/01/11/460698077/goodbye-jobs-hello-gigs-nunbergs-word- of-the-year-sums-up-a-new-economic-reality This is relevant to me, because in 2015 the last vestige of Silicon Valley coolness got sucked out of my job. Stable and good money and really the kind of thing only utterly impractical romantics walk away from, but . . . man, I moved out of my parents' basement and across country in '97 to get rich *and* have fun, and the latter is in way short supply. It doesn't help that the constant-deadlines of a DevOps software development happens in the same place where I once witnessed real crunchy applied computer science and hardware engineering taking place. I find myself with the luxury of asking myself what I want to do next. And deep uncertainty over whether I'm up to the new styles of employment. * (My small contribution to green living is walking to the supermarket. 3.2 miles, round trip, to Fred Meyer. Great way to stay keep up to date on podcasts. During the summer, free blackberries in the vacant lots along the way. Hey, maybe free blackberries in the spring, as the weather keeps weirding.)
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #116 of 179: R.U. Sirius (rusirius) Tue 12 Jan 16 10:21
permalink #116 of 179: R.U. Sirius (rusirius) Tue 12 Jan 16 10:21
Wow. Thanks Bruce for so much response.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #117 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Tue 12 Jan 16 13:55
permalink #117 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Tue 12 Jan 16 13:55
(jonl) We're on the same page brother, but if you can't laugh and find some joy in this horror of a world, what's the point? Yes, it's a wake up call, it's sobering and apocalyptic and at the same time hope is embedded in the rant. You can't get to there, if you don't truly know where you are at the "you are here" spot on your map. Bruce nailed it the "now" we're living in, all I was asking is how and where to next? You are both futurists, I'm most certainly not...I can only see that we might make it to 2050 and the time and space between now and then truly sucks. For me, it's only a question of are we living above or below the ground. Don't see anything past that, just possible futures and most of them are bleak. But first we have to make it to 2050.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #118 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 15:04
permalink #118 of 179: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 12 Jan 16 15:04
*Signatures of the Anthropocene. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/welcome-to-the-anthropocene- five-signs-earth-is-in-a-man-made-epoch
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #119 of 179: Julie Sherman (julieswn) Tue 12 Jan 16 22:05
permalink #119 of 179: Julie Sherman (julieswn) Tue 12 Jan 16 22:05
<scribbled by julieswn Tue 12 Jan 16 22:31>
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #120 of 179: Brian Slesinsky (julieswn) Tue 12 Jan 16 22:31
permalink #120 of 179: Brian Slesinsky (julieswn) Tue 12 Jan 16 22:31
via email from Brian Slesinsky: So speaking of cheap medical fixes, I'd like to point to some nice animated maps about malaria in Africa: https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2015/12/bednets-have-prevented-450-millio n- cases-of-malaria/ I wonder if buying hundreds of millions of bednets counts as "useful, large-scale and effective." Some scientists have written papers that say it's working, and I believe them. Does that make me a neo-optimist? I keep up with the effective altruism folks and I've sent some money their way. And it seems like there are other folks who think it's better than arts funding: http://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/with-millennial-philanthropy-money-f lo wing-arts-groups-miss-out/ They say that for somewhere around $1k-$2k you can save a statistical life. Of course everyone involved knows these are numbers in a spreadsheet and there are large error bars. But reading scientific papers and crunching numbers seems fairly reality-based (I hope - I've outsourced it to GiveWell). It's all rather abstract so it doesn't give me warm fuzzies. It's also not going to help the refugees in Dadaab or Syria or stop global warming. Optimizing for economic efficiency tends to avoid the really tough problems. And maybe gene-drive mosquitoes will make all that effort obsolete someday. But in the meantime, does anyone have a better idea?
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #121 of 179: William Cunningham (julieswn) Tue 12 Jan 16 23:31
permalink #121 of 179: William Cunningham (julieswn) Tue 12 Jan 16 23:31
via email from William Cunningham: "It's tempting to dismiss signs of apocalypse, and to grin when you consider potential human extinction, as though it's just a fiction, one of many potential paths forward, but always avoidable... always a happy ending." Avoiding extinction almost never equates to a happy ending though, and extinction isn't even the likeliest of outcomes of a Cataclysmic Anthropocene. I mean, human animals are resilient. We live in every heinous environment on the surface of the planet and we've demonstrated in every era that we will do absolutely anything we have to in order to persist. Aggressive inhospitality on the part of the climate is not likely to erase us. There may well have been a time some extended angry weather ground us down to about 40 breeding pairs and some stragglers, but here we are no in numbers sufficient to allow us to acidify the whole pacific ocean with our vile seeping civilization. http://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-alm ost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c If climate disruptions perturb the global political and economic network enough to fragment it a lot of things we think of as our sophisticated technological civil society will become really, really difficult to maintain. Nations will get smaller, more selfish and warlike. Fringe characters with practical traditional knowledge will become more important. Un-mitigatable disease, death and decay will be attributed to providence. The time tested standbys of racism, xenophobia, dominance hierarchies and religion will re-assemble what was once a global society into the loosely related cells of primate tribes that haven't ever really left us. The scope of human aspiration will phase shift back from yearning for the Best of All Possible Worlds to hoping for an alliance with the Best of All Possible Warlords. We lived a very, very, very long time like that. Most of our time as a species. It got us through roughly 1.8 million years of environmental outrages. That seems to me to be the much more likely apocalypse. Not human extinction, but the loss of a global consciousness. Planetary brain damage. Self inflicted. When people are dismissive of shaggy apocalypse stories I think it is to some degree because mostly we know this. We know there were a lot less of us and life was really hard, and we can probably do that again if we have to. So the idea of us literally wiping ourselves into extinction seems far fetched. But I think a lot of people stop there at skepticism and don't think through the likelier failure scenarios. Especially the super wealthy. I don't think they have a realistic notion of just exactly how necessary a global network of trade among relatively stable political entities is to projects like advanced gerontology, Moore's Law or even just being a foodie. Every dream of the contemporary elite will become fantasy when our apocalypse forces us to avoid extinction the old fashioned way. Maybe the kids will figure a way around this but I don't really hold out a lot of hope. Lots of the things I grew up expecting the population to generationally die out of, the sexism, the racism, the militarism, they all have just waves of young enthusiasts using the equalizing miracle of the open internet to find each other and amplify their influence with no checks on their behavior or growth that I can see. I'm personally sort of ok in life right now. Things are pretty good for me. But I can't imagine it will end well for me even in my own lifetime and I genuinely can't think what kind of action on my part could possibly make a difference in this. I guess I'll try to make sure my nieces have some resources to call on if they get any good ideas in a decade or two and in the meantime try not to worry? It's hard to read basically essays in thermodynamic realism and not want someone smarter than you to offer suggestions as to what to do about it all that feel like they might plausibly have a positive effect. Eat local I guess? Practice for when you won't have a choice?
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #122 of 179: Andrew Alden (alden) Wed 13 Jan 16 16:42
permalink #122 of 179: Andrew Alden (alden) Wed 13 Jan 16 16:42
The Anthropocene concept is crucial. As a deep fan of the geosciences, I've watched the concept burgeon since its creation. It felt like inside-baseball stuff, something for geochronologists to wrangle over, and then the public took it up and turned the Anthropocene into something much more important. It puts our future into our hands in a wonderfully visceral and focused way. Even as a minor science writer, I'm feeling like my work means more now. If it encourages enough of us, in all walks of life, to up our games, then the Anthropocene idea will do the world much good.
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #123 of 179: Russell Wiltshire (rw) Wed 13 Jan 16 17:45
permalink #123 of 179: Russell Wiltshire (rw) Wed 13 Jan 16 17:45
Once again I'm left with the feeling that this topic should be renamed "State of the Developed World".
inkwell.vue.487
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #124 of 179: mcc-p (julieswn) Wed 13 Jan 16 20:12
permalink #124 of 179: mcc-p (julieswn) Wed 13 Jan 16 20:12
We have seen the emergence of online learning and watched it cycle through to a dispirited realization of its real reach. It seems like without clear vision this phenomenon directs a restless self-improvement toward a couple of clear realms: - maybe with new skill xxx I can get a better job at yyy corporation and/or - I'mna learn me some new skills, start up one of them startups and cash out via email from mcc_p: with a big payday in next to no time. I wonder how the MOOC model could be used to impart survival skills rather than simply engender better compensated employees or naify would-be entrepreneurs expecting to win some kind of VC lottery? Is there some way to direct this willingness to expend cognitive processing toward an end that preferences utility to the race over of improved utility as a stacks lackey? Perhaps there is something already happening in that regard? Or, more broadly and saliently which few skills would be optimally useful to distribute at large accross the population? Any hope that these systems can change things for the better for their stakeholders? or just for their founders and shareholders...
inkwell.vue.487
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Bruce Sterling & Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2016
permalink #125 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 14 Jan 16 02:32
permalink #125 of 179: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 14 Jan 16 02:32
<121> William: "I'm personally sort of ok in life right now. Things are pretty good for me. But I can't imagine it will end well for me even in my own lifetime and I genuinely can't think what kind of action on my part could possibly make a difference in this. I guess I'll try to make sure my nieces have some resources to call on if they get any good ideas in a decade or two and in the meantime try not to worry?" http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/ John Robb http://www.openthefuture.com/ Jamais Cascio @cascio https://t.co/x4ih0X9WgH Cory Doctorow @doctorow Pebbles in the pond William....think of cyberspace as a pond, think of your life here on the sphere as making ripples in the sea of people and places around you....cast your pebbles (thoughts, actions, posts, love, heart and soul (fill in the blank on 'soul')into the sea... I know it doesn't seem like much, but as Margaret Mead said: yada, yada, (https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/1071-never-doubt-that-a-small-group-of-though tful-committed-citizens) It's a ripple effect....gather local friends, makers,and encourage resilient people and businesses in your town, village, whatever ! Once in awhile roll a boulder down a hill :) Tsunamis can sometimes be good. But mostly it's pebbles and you don't see how far they extend, how they merge with others, ch, ch, ch changes a la Blackstar, Mr. Bowie
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