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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #0 of 221: Introduction (jonl) Thu 28 Dec 17 07:41
permalink #0 of 221: Introduction (jonl) Thu 28 Dec 17 07:41
Time again to kick off the new year with a two-week conversation about the state of the world (an intentionally, perhaps comically, broad scope of coverage, inviting a range of discussion focusing on facts, alternative facts, more or less informed opinion, and exploratory projection). Your primary interlocutors: Bruce Sterling is a futurist, journalist, science-fiction author and design critic. He is best known for his novels and his seminal work on the Mirrorshades anthology, which defined the cyberpunk genre. Jon Lebkowsky is an activist and writer/blogger focused on the future of the Internet, digital culture, cyber liberties, media, and society. He is currently part of the Polycot Associates digital co-operative. Others are invited to add questions or comments. If you're reading this and not a member of the WELL, you can send your comment or question to inkwell at well.com, to be posted here by one of our hosts.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #1 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 31 Dec 17 07:50
permalink #1 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 31 Dec 17 07:50
2017 was a nervous year of overwrought blustery political cultures, a year of normalized psychosis amplified by media distortion, a year in which we all learned to live in the upside-down, losing our hats in the process of flipping. Wary though I am of year-end top-ten lists, I couldn't help assembling such a beast as a way to organize my thoughts and generally keep track. These were the blips on my radar... 1. The normalization of deceit in US politics, melting reality into surreality, a postmodern politics constructing "alternative facts" and liquid narrative. Donald Trump is in the lead here (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/23/opinion/trumps-lies.html), and Russian propaganda engines have contributed many bits of misinformation and disinformation. Reliable, accountable news sources have been labeled "fake news," undermining the credibility of accurate news reporting vs false narratives polluting the information ecosystem. Don't get me started about Fox News (and a shout out to Shepard Smith, still trying to practice real journalism in that difficult context.) 2. Mainstreaming of fringe whack, dismissal of evidence-based research and science, resulting potential for institutional rupture. Alex Jones at Infowars accurately says "there's a war on for your mind!" Hopefully Jones and his ilk aren't winning. 3. Climate change kicks into higher gear while we argue whether the scientific consensus is just another shaggy apocalypse story, or whether economic interests have priority over human sustainability. Meanwhile ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather events probably related to climate change are wreaking havoc. (I say "probably related": always important to note that weather and climate are different but related things.) 4. The blockchain, still confusing, with use cases unclear, has become more of an established phenomenon, even as Bitcoin seems imperiled by the expansion of an apocalyptic bubble. Related: hard currency is increasingly replaced by plastic cards and electronic transactions (electronic fiat), but not so far by cryptocurrency. Will there be meaningful and sustainable alternatives to fiat money? See the infographic at https://holytransaction.com/blog/2014/07/bitcoin-vs-banking-infographic.html 5. Platform Cooperativism. Emerging interest in egalitarian worker co-operatives meets platform-based business structure (as in gig economy platform-based powerhouses Uber and Freelancer.) Platform co-ops have multistakeholder governance that is, as with worker co-ops in general, more democratic and inclusive. See https://platform.coop/about - "Platform cooperativism is a growing international movement that builds a fairer future of work. Its about social justice and the bottom line. Rooted in democratic ownership,co-op members, technologists, unionists, and freelancers create a concrete near-future alternative to the extractive sharing economy." 6. #MeToo: Sexual misconduct allegations against Harvey Weinstein triggered an avalanche of similar reports by women and some men, shining a light on a whole, previously hidden, culture of misogyny. As a male, I was shocked to hear how widespread were sexual aggression, objectification of women, and general insensitivity in the 21st century. We still have some growin' up to do, obviously... 7. Net neutrality interpreted as damage, and routed around by the Trump/Pai FCC, arguing that net neutrality rules are heavy-handed, stifling the Internet. In fact, net neutrality was a support for digital freecom and equality. It's not clear yeat how this will play out: most likely result is that the Internet will be more expensive. (See https://boingboing.net/2017/12/26/creeping-blackmail.html.) 8. UFOs get real, Oumuamua suggests a rendezvous with Rama scenario. As the supposed asteroid Oumuamua shot through the solar system, its odd properties caused speculation that it might be an alien ship or artifact. Meanwhile the government revealed a secret UFO study program and two F-18 gun-camera UFO videos. A boon for the credibility of UFO research, at least, though Scientific American says "The world already knew that plenty of smart folks believe in alien visitors, and that pilots sometimes encounter strange phenomena in the upper atmosphere - phenomena explained by entities other than space aliens, such as a weather balloon, a rocket launch or even a solar eruption." (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-truth-about-those-alien-alloys- in-the-new-york-times-ufo-story/) 9. Transportation meltdown, probable ascendance of autonomous vehicles and mass transit. The transportation infrastructure in many parts of the world isn't up to managing the increasing load, and individually-owned vehicles burning fossil fuels, as primary contributors to the climate change problem, seem less sensible (unless you're a climate change skeptic and/or fossil fuels enthusiast). Some cities are adjusting urban infrastructure away from support for individual vehicle traffic, and all sorts of transportation alternatives are under consideration - even gondolas, which do a great job of moving people up and down mountains. Something's gotta give... I suspect a combo of increasing use of mass transit, more "transportation on the fly" services like Car2Go, ascendance of autonomous vehicles, and - of course - more bicycles on the thoroughfares. 10. Psychedelics reconsidered for therapy, especially the treatment of depression and PTSD. When I first heard about LSD in the sixties, it was through and account of Cary Grant's therapeutic use of psychedelics, before hippies took it to the streets. (Grant's use was recently documented in a Guardian article, https://www.theguardian.com/film/2017/may/12/cary-grant-how-100-acid-trips-in- tinseltown-changed-my-life-lsd-documentary) LSD and other psychedelics became class 1 drugs (i.e. illegal) via the Controlled Substances Act of 1970. This means that, in the eyes of the government, they have no accepted medical use - so your physician or psychiatrist can't prescribe LSD for therapy. However there's a renewed interest in therapeutic use: see https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/17/upshot/can-psychedelics-be-therapy-allow-re search-to-find-out.htmls Will psychedelics be legal to prescribe in the near future?
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #2 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 31 Dec 17 10:05
permalink #2 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 31 Dec 17 10:05
Im in Ibiza. Nobody parties in Ibiza in the winter. Thats why Im here. Im on an island at work on a long, difficult novel. Few things can bore me more than novelists blithering about their imaginative masterworks and how much they suffer during the creative process. So never mind the baroque, overladen novel. Just take it for granted during this years SOTW that, if I seem breathless, its because Im dead-lifting an anvil backstage. I figured this interregnum would and must occur; I just never knew it would happen in Ibiza. During last years speech at South By South West, I was cheerly describing the debased state of current affairs, and how this seemed to me to offer a golden excuse to disconnect from my usual fevered trend-tracking and tackle some private creative issues. So, I did that. Ive abandoned my usual stomping grounds of Torino, Beograd and Austin. Im rent-sharing an apartment on a small, hippified, Spanish Mediterranean island, where I live mostly on seafood, sausage, cheese, olives and Ecuadorian plantains. I know there are other creative people working on Ibiza, because I can kinda smell em, but Ive got nothing to do with em. Ive got it figured that, just like me, they mostly hide out from the tourists.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #3 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 31 Dec 17 10:06
permalink #3 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 31 Dec 17 10:06
Ive grown rather fond of Ibizan culture, meaning the lifestyle of the actual Ibizans who stay here, rather than the trampling, sequin-clad, globalist hordes who arrive by ferry, jet and private yacht. If you were, like, Spanish and born under Franco, it must have been discombobulating to realize that your modest island was gonna get culturally dominated, more or less forever, by disco dancers. But the Ibizans show an admirable dignity about that prospect. They dont vividly despise the uncouth invaders to the point of near-mania, like their maddened, radical cousins over in nearby Barcelona. The Ibizans cant do much to take back control Brexit style (or Catalonia-style) because theyre like some island-bound Captain Cook swamped by vast hordes of hula-dancers. But its genteel here in Ibiza. It seems okay. Even though the harbor is infested with foreign billionaires on big yachts, and while many local Spaniards are clearly shattered by the finance crisis and dirt-poor, theres no class warfare. No sirens, no barbed wire, few videocams, no gunfire and ambulances. Theres one corner downtown where three or four token lunatics hang out on cardboard, strung-out and begging. Sometimes one of them bellows old Bob Marley lyrics. Even they dont spoil the general mood much, as the cops seem to leave them on exhibit there as some public lesson not to overdo it on the party pills. So, for a couple more weeks, for the extent of the yearly Inkwell show here, the state of my world is Ibiza and The Well. Thats kinda okay. Theyve clearly got some commonalities. It may be rather somnolent, old-hippie territory, but I can see that my future golden years may contain a lot of experience of this kind. I dont mind that. Should it happen, I know Id be lucky. Nice to be here, folks. Thanks for dropping by.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #4 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 31 Dec 17 10:07
permalink #4 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 31 Dec 17 10:07
With that groundwork established, well, Ive got broadband in Lotusland. Smoking hot Ibiza broadband, even. So there are certain worldly issues that I must pursue, for fear of missing out. For 2018, two of em are Dubai and Estonia. I cant watch the whole world while writing fiction and the whole world watches me now, frankly, its burningly keen on the customer surveillance and snipes at me with targeted data. But Dubai and Estonia are two places about the size of Ibiza. Two dinky little niches in odd corners of the world. Yet theyre both bone-level convinced that they are Futurity.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #5 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 31 Dec 17 10:07
permalink #5 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 31 Dec 17 10:07
I dont believe either of them, but Im always interested in people who make that claim Were the future. Theyre not resentful in Dubai or Estonia, theyre not looking backward; thats what I appreciate. They dont yearn to make themselves great again, because theyve never been great. Theyre not trying to take back control of anything, because they never had any control. Both Dubai and Estonia are in situations that, looked at objectively, are just chock-full of bloodthirsty menace. Estonia was crushed to paste by both Nazis and Stalinists, and Muslim fundies would cheerfully behead every soul in Dubai. Yet boy, are they perky. Its weird how upbeat, shiny, and future-evangelical they both are. Dubai and Estonia, these tiny countries, say and do things that look like they come from two other planets. Im waiting for the day when they announce an alliance.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #6 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 31 Dec 17 11:19
permalink #6 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 31 Dec 17 11:19
Toggl, the timekeeping app, is a tool I use daily, and I imagined for the longest time that it was a Bay Area startup. A Toggl staffer with the title "Customer Experience Optimizer" asked me for a face to face meeting, and as we were sipping coffee and talking use cases, I learned that Toggl is based in Estonia - she was touring the USA, where I assume most of their customers reside. Turns out Estonia is "tech powerhouse," per Fortune mag: http://fortune.com/2017/04/27/estonia-digital-life-tech-startups/ "Estonia offers a glimpse into what happens when a country abandons old analog systems and opts to run completely online instead." It's "the first country in the world to declare Internet access a basic human right." I'm ready to book a flight...
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #7 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Sun 31 Dec 17 21:31
permalink #7 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Sun 31 Dec 17 21:31
And Estonia allows digital citizenship!!! E-Residency....been a member for 2 years.....cool idea Dubai, geez, I have been watching Internet City almost from its inception. Now, THAT is the future....or at least one, which most definitely, will be taking place here on good old planet Earth.... Throw in trillions in oil dough, and two expanding new markets...dash of fundamentalism and the sure knowledge of knowing you are right!!, and you've got yourself a good ole fashion war....whoppee, we're all gonna die....Country Joe aside, folks seem to think that 2017 was soooo bad, it couldn't possibly get worse....well, I'm here to tell you, you ain't seen notin' yet
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #8 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 1 Jan 18 08:39
permalink #8 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 1 Jan 18 08:39
Yeah, the e-residency E-Stonian thing interests me a lot, because its such a weird and deliberate hack of the European immigration problem. Nations always stand with oppressed populations, but no nation really wants its population to physically stand next to migrants. Nobody abolishes passports and flings out the welcome mat for the planets sixty million refugees. Even millionaire migrants, like the ones who flock to Ibiza here, seem to be getting more problematic, in strange ways. Its not just that the locals resent them; they do a little bit, but interestingly, the tourists dont seem to like each other very much any more. They get off the boats, make a few discos while looking at screens, then get back on the boats. And those are the foreigners who cheerfully throw money around, instead of arriving with belt-bombs full of nails, to go stand somewhere in a crowd. With e-residency, youve got the Estonians trying to play financial games with this new psychological situation somehow. Theyre not creating a common offshore money-laundry, theyre aiming for technically talented Koreans, Ukrainians and such, who are using Estonia as a national cloud and a business services platform. And to get Euros and bank them. Theres no pretense at all that e-residents are gonna integrate into Estonian society, or learn their impossible language, or ever live there, or even visit there. But it is an Estonian soft-power emanation. They seem to see it as some shareable aspect of their own predicament. Would you, too, like to be Estonian? Well, this is as Estonian as we can possibly make you, without getting sticky stuff on us. Also: probably Russian-proof! The guys who run the e-residency program, who are Estonian government officials, are just a small cluster of wacky 30-something coders who work out of an old wrecked bakery. The offices of WHOLE EARTH REVIEW used to look better than their offices do. Estonia also seems to be keen on national outer-space initiatives, which is endearingly Space Age of them. There arent many of them, but theyve got charisma. Sometimes thats all it takes.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #9 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 1 Jan 18 08:40
permalink #9 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 1 Jan 18 08:40
They've also been babbling about an Estonian cryptocoin lately, but, well, everybody says that this season.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #10 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Mon 1 Jan 18 11:28
permalink #10 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Mon 1 Jan 18 11:28
And Estonia allows digital citizenship!!! E-Residency....been a member for 2 years.....cool idea Dubai, geez, I have been watching Internet City almost from its inception. Now, THAT is the future....or at least one, which most definitely, will be taking place here on good old planet Earth.... Throw in trillions in oil dough, and two expanding new markets...dash of fundamentalism and the sure knowledge of knowing you are right!!, and you've got yourself a good ole fashion war....whoppee, we're all gonna die....Country Joe aside, folks seem to think that 2017 was soooo bad, it couldn't possibly get worse....well, I'm here to tell you, you ain't seen notin' yet
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #11 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Mon 1 Jan 18 11:30
permalink #11 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Mon 1 Jan 18 11:30
Adding to Jon's list....let's not forget there is an opiod crisis, here in the US of A. Don't know how the rest of the world is faring drug-wise....Bruce, observaitons??? Re Estonia...I look forward to visiting my E mother country...when I get back from Asgardia....you can even join imaginary countries in outer reaches of the galaxy, AND BEYOND !!1 Buzz Lightyear goes digital... Seems like everyone is doing everything, except for having a real life.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #12 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:42
permalink #12 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:42
As Im staying here in Ibiza, I ponder its relationship to Puerto Rico, which is another small, yet significantly modern place, like Estonia and Dubai. Ibiza and Puerto Rico may seem polar opposites, since one of them is widely known as a rich guys playground and the other is half-prostrate with the worst electrical blackout in American history. Parts of Puerto Rico look quite like Ibiza, though. Puerto Rico is prettier than Ibiza, its the mountainous tropical fishing paradise, it abounds in luxury hotels. Imagining privileged chunks of Puerto Rico as recreational Ibiza is no stretch at all. Imagining Ibiza as Puerto Rico is a grimmer prospect, but Ibiza does have some small, decrepit inland villages that are pretty shabby. Spanish separatist political trouble could impoverish Ibiza overnight. Even a fuel embargo, or a shutdown of air travel, could bring hard economic times in a hurry.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #13 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:43
permalink #13 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:43
Ibiza wont get huge hurricanes like Puerto Rico, but Spain suffers bad droughts and big wildfires as the parched climate of the Maghreb moves north into the Mediterranean. Theres not a whole lot to burn here in ibiza, but Ibizas got a dense hillside scrub that looks quite like Southern California. Los Angeles is better off than Puerto Rico is, despite the Thomas Fire, the largest wildfire in Californian history. Im thinking thats mostly about Californias disaster-response logistics. If Los Angeles had the infrastructure of Puerto Rico, the city would have been aflame this year. L.A. would have burned like San Francisco in 1906. If Houston had the infrastructure of Puerto Rico, Texans would have despaired from Houstons massive hurricane floods of 2017. Houstonians would be leaving Houston in droves, much like Puerto Ricans are leaving. Puerto Rico is what America looks like when America cant mechanize its way out of climate crisis. The scene is bad there, not because Puerto Rico is unique, but because its a harbinger.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #14 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:43
permalink #14 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:43
A political crisis for a small place like Ibiza just remove the money, shelter and logistical resources of a nation-state might mean a crushing blow from climate-crisis unnatural disaster. Its not just that poor people suffer most, its that becoming poor, or even just becoming small, or forgotten, can throw you into accelerated danger from the advancing scope of the trouble that threatens everybody. This cruel aspect of modern geopolitics may be underestimated. If youre a micro-state, a failed state, a frozen conflict zone, people may have the ability to bail you out from the planets general troubles, but would they bother?
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #15 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:43
permalink #15 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:43
We stayed in Sardinia this year while the island was on fire in a drought. We worried about that, and thought maybe it would be more sensible to stay in Torino. It turned out that the Alpine valley forests upwind of Torino were also on fire, later the same year. And boy, did that Alpine wood burn. It burned far worse than Sardinia. Downtown skies in Torino turned leaden gray with smoke, California style. The Turinese made a lot of alarmed Puerto Rico noise during their emergency Where are the fire trucks, where are the fire helicopters? Dont we pay taxes? Have you forgotten us? Well, those advanced machines do exist, but theyre pretty busy elsewhere. You see, nobody ever thought you would need that many. Why dont you just drag yourself out of global trouble with your own local bootstraps? Everybody thinks that about the other complainers. Until it happens to them.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #16 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:49
permalink #16 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:49
I'm also quite the fan of "Asgardia the Space Kingdom," though it's basically one guy using a small satellite to write a glorious fantasy narrative for himself. I've read worse science fiction novels than "Asgardia the Space Kingdom," but Stanislaw Lem would have briskly polished off the notion of Asgardia in about four pages.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #17 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:56
permalink #17 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 10:56
https://asgardia.space/en/ *That's "Asgardia," for those who haven't yet seen it. It's kinda the Juicero of space colonization. For what it's worth, I think "Dr. Igor Ashurbeyli" is quite sincere; he's not some Initial Coin Offering huckster, he's more like a Tsiolkovsky visionary with enough cash to build himself a spaceship in a bottle. I kind of envy his enthusiasm, actually. It can be fun to be Don Quixote, as long as the windmills don't crack your poor head like an egg.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #18 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 11:16
permalink #18 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Tue 2 Jan 18 11:16
*Everything Estonia thinks you need to know to start your own Estonian E-Residency. https://medium.com/e-residency-blog/heres-how-you-can-create-an-eu-company-wit h-eu-banking-anywhere-on-earth-cbba47386489
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #19 of 221: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Tue 2 Jan 18 11:21
permalink #19 of 221: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Tue 2 Jan 18 11:21
11. Work still has no future. The expectation that someone who is willing can get an honest day's pay for an honest day's work has broken down. There's a huge power imbalance in favor of the "job creators" who would prefer to create wealth in ways that create as few well-paying jobs as possible. When we talk about this in terms of the GINI coefficient we focus on what's going on in the upper three quintiles of the wealth and income distributions. The lower quintiles are where we're creating a permanent underclass that lacks economic choices (including the ability to move to take a new job), health care, education, and a stable future. The opioid crisis is an emergent feature of this breakdown of the social contract. So is economic stagnation, now that the US economy isn't driven by consumer spending from the working class.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #20 of 221: Administrivia (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 11:47
permalink #20 of 221: Administrivia (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 11:47
This conversation is world-readable via this link: http://bit.ly/SOTW2018 Readers who have a burning desire to add a comment or question, but are not members of the WELL, can send to inkwell at well.com, and we'll post here (within reason).
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #21 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 13:53
permalink #21 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 13:53
Austin, Texas, where I live, has what's often called a "vibrant economy," a lot of wealthy people, high employment, culture on steroids, very little to complain about, aside from the persistent and frustrating transportation gridlock. When you live in an urban center like Austin, you're going to be out of touch with the problems of smaller cities and towns where economies are barely propped up, and jobs are scarce. As are "job creators," in those smaller towns. Department stores are shutting down in Hermitage, Pennsylvania: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/first-this-town-lost-its-macys- then-sears-now-all-eyes-were-on-jc-penney/2018/01/01/644ea4a2-ecb7-11e7-b698-9 1d4e35920a3_story.html?utm_term=.f59725e43172 Imagine how you'd feel if all the major retail outlets in your city started disappearing, especially if retail is the third largest employer. Trump won the presidency (narrowly) by speaking to voters in towns like Hermitage, and convincing him that he has their back. He doesn't, of course - I don't think anybody does, right or left. Bernie Sanders, maybe, or Elizabeth Warren... but I suspect even those two are out of touch. And a storm is coming.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #22 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 15:05
permalink #22 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 15:05
<scribbled by jonl Tue 2 Jan 18 20:26>
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #23 of 221: Jon Lebkows (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 15:05
permalink #23 of 221: Jon Lebkows (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 15:05
<scribbled by jonl Tue 2 Jan 18 20:27>
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permalink #24 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 20:42
permalink #24 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 20:42
Libertarians have been energized in the Trump era - as CNN wrote (http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/24/politics/being-moody-libertarians-freedomfest/in dex.html), they're sensing opportunity despite skepticism about Trump the man, and the power of the presidency. He's promising to shrink government, and to libertarians big government is the problem. I've worked with libertarians, especially around net.activism, but I don't have much depth with libertarian thinking. But I thought it was important to add a libertarian perspective to this latest "state of the world." To that end, I asked my friend John Papola, a very smart guy and vocal libertarian, to contribute something. I'm posting it below.
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permalink #25 of 221: John Papola (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 20:43
permalink #25 of 221: John Papola (jonl) Tue 2 Jan 18 20:43
Jon asked me to weigh in with my thoughts on the state of the world as a vocal classical liberal / libertarian. Theres a lot to be thankful for in 2018. Despite popular misconceptions, absolute poverty is declining worldwide and has been for over 40 years. Global equality both under the law and as a matter of real consumption and quality of life is increasing. By every measure of welfare we can attempt to quantify, things are heading in an incredible direction. And yet, we have the rise of ethnic nationalism, protectionism, and sympathies for socialism which are, to quote Friedrich Hayek simply a re-assertion of that tribal ethics whose gradual weakening had made an approach to the great society possible. What accounts for this bizarre disparity? Like any complex problem, the causes are many. Our rural-urban cultural divides are more stark than ever. Our education systems arent preparing graduates for a rapidly changing world. The costs of physical mobility are rising. In the face of all these forces, its time we acknowledge the fact that our expectations of the political process have long outpaced its inherent ability to deliver. We wait for government to offer solutions it wont and cant provide. In far too many instances, government policy is a root cause of our problems or making existing problems worse. And yet we have been conflating society and the state for so long that most people can no longer tell the difference between the two. People look to the President of the United States not as a person with an important but limited and particular job, but as a god-like emperor. All outcomes in our massive, complex society are attributing to him/her. Economic growth. Jobs. Individual happiness. The moral character of the nation. All are attributed, for good or ill, to the executive. Such grandiose talk has always been with us, but as the role of the state has grown larger and more complex, the difference between this linguistic fiction and actual reality has become more jarring. No president or party can measure up. Political promises have grown to match expectations for god-like power, but the capability of our politics, of government as an institution, to deliver hasnt. It cant. And so our politics oscillates from one increasing disappointment to another, with our culture dividing itself along political lines with increasing intensity as a result. Trump. Sanders. Brexit. Le Pen. These are symptoms of our unrealistic expectations. Why cant politics/government deliver? Today, were faced with the political equivalent of Brooks law, which states that adding even more people to a late software project actually makes it later, rather than speeding up development. Were long past negative marginal returns on the state. And the reasons why are multifold. The most fundamental flaw in centralized command-and-control systems like very large firms and governments is the knowledge problem. Knowledge exists in individual minds and is particular to time and place. Central planners simply cant gather and process the massive amount of particular insights necessary to create centralized solutions with anywhere near the customization or effectiveness of decentralized ones. This is a big problem in large firms but its made far bigger and more fragile at the governmental level. Efficient planning at national-scale takes more than angels, it takes omnipotent gods. And even then, one size will rarely fit all. Decentralization isnt perfect nor appropriate in every single instance, but in most cases its a superior approach. The second problem is accountability. The single greatest regulator of behavior is the ability of one party to walk away. Abusive relationships are sustained by the abused partys belief (or reality) that they cant leave. A companys quality of service tends to directly correlate with how easily its customers can shop elsewhere. For this reason, I define freedom as the inverse of the cost of exiting an undesirable situation. Were more free to leave a bad job, than leave a bad country. Competition and the ability to exit are the best form of accountability weve got. Voicing your opinion is, at best, a crude and sloppy second. Just ask an unsatisfied parent leaving a public school board meeting if voice matches exit. Or ask a 2016 voter. Along similar lines, governments weak accountability leads to a perverse response to failure. Politics in practice tends to reward failure rather than learn from it. Its called the ratchet effect. Few things in life are more permanent than a government program. Failed programs and agencies more often than not end up being given larger budgets and even more responsibility. The department of education has seen its budget and power grow decade after decade even though its impact on educational outcomes appears to be zero (and in many cases negative, like the collapse of discourse and due process on college campuses). Because of these forces, the tragic history of well-intended progressive reform has been to build an administrative state that stifles competition, empowers the politically connected and induces the very inequities the reformers are seeking to alleviate. Economist Bruce Yandle calls this the bootlegger and baptist dynamic. The baptists want prohibition to end a scourge of socially-destructive drunkenness. The bootleggers support it because it will restrict supply and line their pockets with ill-gotten profits. This is why the most heavily regulated industries end up being the most oligopolistic and consumer-hostile (healthcare, finance, transportation, K-12 education, etc). Airline executives long for the era of the Civil Aeronautics Board for a reason.(see: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/12/09/143466204/the-friday-podcast-the -nasty-rotten-airline-business) Okay, so what are we to do about it? Lets stop expecting politics to solve all our problems. It cant. Presidents dont run the economy so lets stop talking about it as if they do. Society is not the state, so lets stop treating those of us opposed to political solutions to problems as if were therefore, ipso facto against any solution at all. But this reality also means that each of us needs to embrace being a problem solver with more vigor than ever. If youre passionate about a problem, make it your business to solve it, not just figuratively but literally. Where politics has failed, business can succeed. For example, in America, few subjects cause more political conflict than how to educate our children. Our current system has deep problems that are leaving increasing numbers of kids ill prepared for our changing world, especially for the poorest communities. And yet our K-12 is monopolized by political solutions, largely in the name of providing access to the poor. Theres another way. As James Tooley documented in his incredible book The Beautiful Tree, many of the poorest children on earth in communities from India to Africa to the Middle East are currently being educated more effectively by private schools than the free government alternatives. Up to 70% of families living on as little as $2 a day in India and elsewhere are choosing to send their kids to a private school run by an entrepreneur (often an accidental one who began as a tutor) instead of the free government school. This is just one example, but I believe its one of the most striking. If people in the poorest communities in India can step in to provide a business alternative to a broken political government education system, surely Americans can too for just about everything. Its time to expand our conception of the purpose and definition of business. Business isnt merely a profit-maximizing endeavor. Business can and should be our process of discovering sustainable solutions. Why? Because business is the most social process we have. Because at its best, business is about serving others. Return on investment is an important scorecard but hardly the only one. Private charities are businesses organized around alternative ROI and revenue models. The old adage, that every business is a people business is true. Its about conserving resources and maximizing value created. Its about trial and error. Most individual businesses fail and that process is the core of why business as a method and a process succeeds. Business solutions can even heal our tribal divides. Business as a process doesnt care about your ideology or your creed, your race or your gender, except as an opportunity to offer something unique. It busts through tribes and borders to expand the market and punishes our natural bigotry with quick competition. Throughout history, global commerce has been an engine for overcoming xenophobia and expanding our horizons. I hate you. I trade with you. I learn that youre a person too. I dont hate you as much. Where businesses finds a reason to discriminate, it is more often than not in the name of super-serving a particular rather than excluding one. Where it is purely a reflection of an owners tribal prejudice, competition and reputation stand ready to punish them. Where political solutions necessarily create winners and losers, businesses can and do co-exist solving the same problems for different people with different needs in different ways. Im a Mac user. If computer choice worked like political choice, I would be forced to use a PC and resent the 90% majority of PC users for imposing it on me. Business enables Mac and PC to co-exist and even get along just fine over family Christmas dinner. No system is perfect and no complex problem has a singular solution. The task of human progress is one of continual evolution and adaptation. Our institutions should be up to the task. Its time to make society our business.
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