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permalink #26 of 231: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Wed 2 Jan 19 14:17
permalink #26 of 231: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Wed 2 Jan 19 14:17
After I turned 60, my memory became less sharp and reliable than it had been, but I could see that happening to others who were growing older, as well. But I'm not clear that the fog is attributable strictly to advancing age and consequent cognitive decline. I also had a worsening attention deficit that seemed related to the memory issues, and was almost certainly related to my persistent focus-challenging online activity. I stopped checking alzheimer's symptoms to remind myself that I wasn't on that path, instead taking a critical look at my websurfing habits. Now I'm convinced that whatever cognitive issues I've experienced derive in large part from effects of a life spent mostly online. And I suspect that's true of Bill Gates, who at 63 is aging and experiencing some loss of memory, but who has almost certainly spent a big part of his life experiencing the same Internet infoburst syndrome.
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permalink #27 of 231: Renshin Bunce (renshin) Wed 2 Jan 19 15:52
permalink #27 of 231: Renshin Bunce (renshin) Wed 2 Jan 19 15:52
I read that Gates wants software that will respond to our moods, and I think of the robots that have been built to comfort elders. Scientists stand on the other side of a mirror and high five each other when they learn that old people are grateful when they get a little attention. What if people comforted elders, if this kind of caregiving were considered a high status well paid job instead of being scutwork tossed to those most newly arrived from other countries. As robots move forward, not because we need them but because Silicon Valley (where I live) can build them, we're going to need to find new jobs for those whose occupations have been eliminated.
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permalink #28 of 231: John Spears (banjojohn) Wed 2 Jan 19 16:19
permalink #28 of 231: John Spears (banjojohn) Wed 2 Jan 19 16:19
I really don't look forward to being comforted by robots or having my mood monitored by software. The world is already too dystopian for my taste. For example, my software tells me I've misspelled dystopian, but I disagree.
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permalink #29 of 231: Paulina Borsook (loris) Wed 2 Jan 19 21:47
permalink #29 of 231: Paulina Borsook (loris) Wed 2 Jan 19 21:47
<hosts, dont see a link to this from the well frontpage for folks NOTW>
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permalink #30 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 01:00
permalink #30 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 01:00
Hi Tiffany - nice to meet you too! I don't have any good answer to the travel issue, other than travelling less, at least by plane. The long answer thus involves some kind of change of life, as it's not just a matter of travelling differently to maintain the same lifestyle, but changing life plans to live differently. In the short term, I have too many embedded plans - contracted gigs (that I need the money from) as well as teaching commitments (at an art school premised on travel, which pops up in a different European country each month) - to make a big difference, but in the medium-to-long-term I am making more plans to generate projects and engagements locally, that will keep me in place in a fulfilling and (mentally, financially) sustainable way. In reckoning this question, I keep coming up against another of those dichotomies that need breaking, between the local and the global. I feel so many of us have taken the internet's injunction to be everywhere at once as a personal challenge, and turned our lives into reflections of the network: distributed and always in motion. I think there must be something in between: a networked cosmopolitanism, that allows us to properly engage without stretching our bodies and the planet's resources to breaking point. That word - cosmopolitan - is a tricky one. Theresa May, the British PM, my PM, among many other terrible things, has stated that "if you're a citizen of everywhere, you're a citizen of nowhere", a jingoistic statement I instinctively rebel against - but of a piece with her particular brand of nanny-state nationalism. (May is to nationalism as Thatcher was to capitalism: no-nonsense, authoritarian, and full TINA (there is no alternative)). At the same time I'm cognisant that the kind of cosmopolitanism we've engendered has made the same mistakes as the internet itself: it's never made it it Stage C (Distributed) of the RAND/Baran network diagram, getting stuck at Stage B (Decentralised). It includes the big cities and the developed nations, but its made dependants at best most of the rest of the world - the peripheries that I referred to previously. A truly networked cosmopolitanism needs to be more evenly distributed. It can be local without being parochial, which is what many of us subconsciously fear.
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permalink #31 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 01:22
permalink #31 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 01:22
To speak to memory slippage and attention fog... My handle here - stml - is the diminutive of short term memory loss - the first domain I registered almost twenty years ago. I used it because that's what the internet felt like even then, something fleeting and uncertain, subject to change and erasure. It still does, in fact, except we've come to expect permanence and authority from it, and perhaps dangerously so. It's quite clear that many things being currently constructed, from large-scale capitalist enterprises to social media timelines to microinteractions on smartphone apps are specifically designed as attacks on our ability to think clearly and act autonomously: "the race to the bottom of the brain stem" as Tristan Harris puts it. What you're feeling is not some weird emergent effect of too much screen time: it's deliberate. (cf Jonathan Crary's "24/7: Late Capitalism and the Ends of Sleep".) If we acknowledge it as deliberate, we also empower ourselves to counter it in meaningful and progressive ways - not going back to the cave, and certainly not to Vipassana retreats in Myanmar, but by reconstructing technologies that support rather than degrade attention and thinking. Again, I'd point to those systems which actively work towards true decentralisation, rather than mere distribution (which, as we've seen, just concentrates power in different hands). These technologies exist, in forms as obvious as peer-to-peer video chat and the interplanetary file system, as well as slower but more dispersed forms of social media. They also emphasise trust and care in ways which are inimical to fully marketised digital media, but must be foundational to whatever comes next. The people working on those things, which include schools, affinity networks, and residencies as well as software, are the ones I'm watching most closely right now.
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permalink #32 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 01:28
permalink #32 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 01:28
And I meant to add to the above: these forms of media are both correlative and performative: that is, they change our behaviours as they change the form of the network. You use different technologies and you change the landscape and yourself, so this is one of many answers to the travel as well as the attention question.
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permalink #33 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:07
permalink #33 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:07
*Here in the WELL SoTW, were not alone in our apparent urge to drop Facebook and flee headlong to the polar tundra. Check out this recent WIRED magazine article. When even WIRED doesnt wanna be wired any more, man, who is left to cheer on the tech-scene? https://www.wired.com/2017/01/how-i-got-my-attention-back/ I want my attention back. Did I really have it before Facebook? Thinking back, the early versions of Facebook were adorable. Benign. No tagging. No timelines. Just The Wall. A way to say Hey, whats shaking dorm buddy? Poke. No algorithms. A human scale. The more I thought about my attention the more I thought about the limits to human scale. How technologies inevitably amplify ourselves the best and worst parts in a way that is almost impossible for us to comprehend .
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permalink #34 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:10
permalink #34 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:10
*Call me sentimental, but I really hate to see WIRED writers suffer. The thing is, though -- Im not sure its all that hard to comprehend. Im thinking that maybe were just unwilling to do the work of comprehension. *Once the tech-glamour novelty fades, its kinda easy to comprehend. Pretending that its all Singularity-like and brain-boggling is a cheesy evasion. Its like comprehending Virtual Reality. VR seems more important than the discovery of fire the first time its clamped on your head (especially if youre on acid). But that thrill fades about as fast as the thrill of 3D movies. *It Tiffany is right and Facebook has become a thing of dismay and hideousness, then what part is the dismay and what part is the hideous? You can get over the dismay. The hideous, that really lasts. *So Im thinking the aesthetics is the key here. Because if the hidden beauty will rematerialize, which is a lovely rallying slogan that I like quite a lot, what would that beauty look like? When it came out of hiding, how would we know it was beautiful? We dont exactly need a new aesthetic to know that, because wrinkled old Dorian Gray Facebook isnt all that new any more, but we do need an aesthetic, because an aesthetic is how you convince other people that the beauty has arrived.
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permalink #35 of 231: Alex Davie (icenine) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:29
permalink #35 of 231: Alex Davie (icenine) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:29
Slippage while composing Tiff: from that perspective, where do you think we stand in 2019, in our case as Americans, or as citizens of the world? do you think we understand what environmental remediation really is, and do we have a firm grasp on what needs to be remediated? When I started performing environmental remediation projects across the Midwest in early 1986, I believed that my work managing environmental remediation projects was directly healing Mother Earth by removing hazardous chemicals and materials from the soil and water and disposing of the extracted haz-mat properly and would unabashedly tell people that when it would come up in conversations. Over the years, we, as a nation, have cleaned up the worst and largest of these depredations and have moved to smaller and smaller projects where the clean-ups are more elusive and in some ways, more intractable but we continue to do it (large and small) and we and Mother Earth are the better for it. There are some contaminated sites that we started back then and we are still pursuing clean-up today in 2019, thirty years later. And yes, in my mind, we do know what environmental remediation was and is today. And that is the removal of large and small contaminates from two media, soil and water. Air pollution, as Bruce talks about is a whole different animal. But even there we have made great progress but more can be done, here and abroad. And yes, we do have a firm grasp on what needs remediation today based on our efforts, experience and research over the past 49 years when the USEPA was formed and environmental remediation (soil, water and air) began in earnest. And this then takes me back to what I said earlier about local political action and now citizen environmental awareness. Both of those is how hundreds of connected (primarily social media) concerned, local citizens rose up and protested the siting of a new water treatment plant. The protest started small among neighbors who spotted a surveyor, queried him and found out that without any notice whatsoever, the County was buying 99 acres of raw, forested land for the construction of a water treatment plant in their backyards". The upshot was that these concerned citizens, connected by social media, packed to overflowing (SRO inside the hall and watching on monitors in the lobby) a Townhall meeting hastily convened by the County. This happened again when the County had their formal and official meeting and these citizens forced the County to abandon their purchase ($3M) of the 99 acres and look at more appropriate sites in already industrial areas of the County. So, as much as I see social media commoditizing, invading and surveilling us, I have seen it put to beneficial use, locally and globally. I have also, seen GAB, MINDS, MEWE, SPREELY, MASTODON and others spring up to take in migrants from the aforementioned omnivore social media platforms. I mention these new platforms with no judgement but observing concerned citizens protesting and refusing to participate in what these omnivores are doing to us. So in 2019, are these platforms with their promises of no ads, no commodification and no surveillance of its participants going to supplant the omnivores?
We're starting to get comments and inquiries via email. The first, from gary b, asks, simply: if water is the new oil, just how screwed are we?
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permalink #37 of 231: George McKee (jonl) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:43
permalink #37 of 231: George McKee (jonl) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:43
Via email from George McKee: So, the exponential phase of a logistic growth curve is tapering off, and it's not so thrilling any more. Good! I have a couple of comments and a question: To put BruceS's European residences in a US perspective, the distance between Ibiza and Turin is less than the distance between Austin and El Paso. Having worked for a paternalistic Fortune 50 company where "you have no expectation of privacy in the office" is drummed into everyone, I suspect that Bill Gates' musings about emotional regulation by AI might come from Googlish or Facebookish thinking about what can be done with all the data Microsoft has in the untold billions of business emails and documents in Outlook and Office 365 clouds, and their recent acquisition LinkedIn. Not to give them ideas, but imagine the monetization opportunities if a company could learn by textual analysis, not to mention speech patterns in Skype for Business calls, that a key employee is having emotional problems likely to affect their productivity or likelihood to jump ship. Subtle tuning of LinkedIn newsfeed article suggestions and reminders of the corporate health plan's psychological services would be a quite reasonable response. The low-profile Amazon/Berkshire Hathaway/Chase healthcare initiative has similar motivations and big data exploitation capabilities. In the big political picture, I sometimes wonder if we're seeing a non-Marxian version of the nation-state withering away into ineffective figurehead status, with lots of nationalist grandstanding and soapboxing, but with increaingly autonomous sprawl-class city-states having the real power, and between them vast farming regions controlled by Big Ag, and depopulated no-man's-lands making up the rest. Key battlegrounds could be tropical rainforests and Asian breadbaskets like Ukraine and Georgia. As usual, "follow the money": if the dollar gets displaced as the global reserve currency by renminbi or World Bank SDRs or Euros, look out! Finally, my perennial media mortality and morbidity question. Whither Facebook, Twitter, Snap? VR & AR, still coming or going? What will be the long-term effect of #MeToo, if any? Will CBS even notice the departure of Les Moonves?
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permalink #38 of 231: Alex Davie (icenine) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:58
permalink #38 of 231: Alex Davie (icenine) Thu 3 Jan 19 06:58
Slippage again while I was composing Just read thru Bruce's comments and the Wired article and my first reaction to the article and the author was: Get a grip and Jeez-O-fricking-Pete, get over yourself. Oh well, so what that you are so addicted to your screen time that it took a month in residency on a rural plantation so you could get your attention back. Yikes, gimme a fookin' break! The author was talking like he was powerless to resist the algos. Yeah, it is enticing but WTF exercise some self-discipline and separate yourself from the herd and your dopamine addiction. No sympathy for the devil here.
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permalink #39 of 231: Tom Valovic (tvacorn) Thu 3 Jan 19 07:10
permalink #39 of 231: Tom Valovic (tvacorn) Thu 3 Jan 19 07:10
To some earlier comments, so just catching up. Thanks to Bruce and Jon for doing this. I found Bruces comments on the new dark quite interesting and insightful. Im a member of a small group of Internet activists who tried to shape the direction of the Net in the 90s when it still could be shaped. Sven Birkerts, Cliff Stoll and others were in this group. My own approach was that of a middle path: tech has great promise so lets not screw it up. I wrote a book called Digital Mythologies outlining this vision with some cautionary tales including several essays about my experiences on the WELL. (I think there might still be an Inkwell session describing its genesis.) I still believe that the impressive array of technology we now possess has great promise but much of it is hitched to the wrong star: the excesses of a financial industry decoupled from and oblivious to the concerns of ordinary Americans. This reality is still not widely understood or reported on accurately in the mainstream press. The moment for steering towards something more consistent with the need to re-enchant the world (as cultural historian Morris Berman put it) has probably passed. Now we have to go backward to go forward. People moving from Facebook to the WELL like Jon and myself are a good example of this. (The WELL itself probably could have been perfected but not improved if that makes sense.) Im very concerned about Gates pushing both nuclear energy and the transhumanist vision of merging our emotional lives with computers. There is a fundamental kind of dehumanizing force at work here, figuratively and even literally in the semantic root sense of the term. But if the singularity was really dead then I doubt people like Gates would be pushing this macabre vision in which we literally outsource the essence of our humanity our emotional life along with compassion and empathy to highly sophisticated machines. In essence, doing so successfully would in my opinion represent an abnegation of the very qualities that make us human, almost an admission of failure and not its apotheosis in the march of evolution seen from any number of philosophical, cultural or even spiritual perspectives.
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permalink #40 of 231: Mark McDonough (mcdee) Thu 3 Jan 19 07:33
permalink #40 of 231: Mark McDonough (mcdee) Thu 3 Jan 19 07:33
Gates has always seemed to me to be a very bright well-read dilettante. An example: His major intervention in education based on the idea that small high schools must be better than big ones. School districts from coast to coast (including the one I used to teach at) jumped on board, in some cases aided by Gates Foundation money. Turned out there was nothing to it at all. Oops.
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permalink #41 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:03
permalink #41 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:03
I don't know about aesthetics - we seem characterised by an absence of them. I'm thinking about the abundance of fake imagery/content online (cf https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/how-much-of-the-internet-is-fake.html or artist Jenny Odell's superlative https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/27/style/what-is-inside-this-inter net-rabbit-hole.html), the prevalence of GAN-generated imagery producing alien otherworlds, and the dominance of deliberately obscure Gerasimov Doctrine warfare from "little green men" to cyberattacks, drones (military and civilian) and Swedish submarines - all absent real surfaces. Like the ecological hyperobject. Surface, as we understand it, is specifically what's missing. Hence the absence of aesthetics, and its uselessness as a concept to address the now. Cybersecurity folk talk about "attack surfaces", and we've lost contact with the attack surface of the present - all smooth and uniform and strawberry as a friend once said of a particularly intractable website design.
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permalink #42 of 231: Ari Davidow (ari) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:12
permalink #42 of 231: Ari Davidow (ari) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:12
>[re small vs. large high schools] Turned out there was nothing to it at all. I just read a book from this past year in which the author seemed quite convinced by the evidence in favor of that proposition, <mcdee>. What studies lead you to believe that it is now debunked?
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permalink #43 of 231: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:23
permalink #43 of 231: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:23
Tom says that pervasive technologies of the network era are "hitched to the wrong star: the excesses of a financial industry decoupled from and oblivious to the concerns of ordinary Americans." He says that mainstream media don't report this accurately. Of course they wouldn't, because it's "where they live." In the last century journalism had evolved as a loss loser - e.g. television network news divisions were operating as public service, not as profit centers. Today mainstream journalism has become a profit center, especially cable news. Accuracy is secondary to profit, and there's an inherent blind spot about "excesses of a financial industry."
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permalink #44 of 231: Paulina Borsook (loris) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:46
permalink #44 of 231: Paulina Borsook (loris) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:46
a cranky hit and run; i dont usually bother but this time i will: 'all politics are local' and 'think globally, act locally'. these ideas been around a very long time. and, ijwts, all i ever tried to write and say was that technology will not change human nature (aggression, gamesmanship, opprtunities for creative abuse). the advent of microprocessors sure didnt. a weird sort of relief in that i no longer hear much the 'technology will be our salvation'. seems to be more 'let's bug out to NZ or mars'. also, 'travel' has become again a certain kind of class marker and also a marker for those who dont have caregiving responsibilities -tying them down-. or (mostly) dont have disabilities themselves. caregiving; disabilities; oh so not -interesting-. these are among the perennials of the suffering human condition and i dont see robots or IOT really addressing them other than in a pitchdeck.
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permalink #45 of 231: Jake Dunagan (jdunagan) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:56
permalink #45 of 231: Jake Dunagan (jdunagan) Thu 3 Jan 19 08:56
<scribbled by jonl Thu 3 Jan 19 10:47>
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permalink #46 of 231: Jake Dunagan (jdunagan) Thu 3 Jan 19 09:38
permalink #46 of 231: Jake Dunagan (jdunagan) Thu 3 Jan 19 09:38
Aloha y'all, like a good futurist, I'm late to the party. Thanks Jon and Bruce for letting me muddy the waters here. Howdy James and Tiffany and WELL folks, and glad to be part of this always stimulating conversation. I always assign the SOTW as one of the pre-readings for my strategic foresight classes, so now my students can learn to be skeptical of their professor before they step into the classroom. Bruce checking in from Ibiza is my jumping off point. My favorite Orson Welles film, and required viewing for the 21st century IMO, is 'F for Fake'. Most of the film takes place in Ibiza in the 70s, following two purveyors of fakes/ hoaxes, Elmyr de Hory and Clifford Irving. One of the main takaways from the film is the fact that experts are necessary for the success of a fake. That idea has now become quaint as expertise is treated with scorn and suspicion. George Wallace's "pointy headed-professors" line now metastasized through New's York's version of George Wallace-- T***p. So, reality is thoroughly negotiable, and experts can't be trusted. Fakes are different now. They are not subversive, they are oppressive, dangerous, violent, stupid. As a purveyor of experiential futures, where me and my collaborators, especially Stuart Candy, have used many hoax devices (not ATHF in Boston, but you know..) to get people to take alternative futures seriously, I have had many ethical misgiving about how design fiction, artifacts from the future, experiential futures get deployed. As Bruce said not long ago, design fiction has been weaponized. There is a profound difference between the Yes Men and Alex Jones. No fan of the Yes Men has gone to a pizza parlor with an AK, but it gets harder to use design fiction and artifacts from the future in a naive way. This is our theater of operations now, and we have to adjust. Fakes are only going to get worse, with deep fakes taking hold (in porn first, of course). 2019 is training camp for deep fakes, 2020 will be the regular season. Check out my IFTF colleague Sam Woolley's work, as well as that of Steve Duncombe at NYU, for two different angles on disinformation and how we use spectacle and performance for "good." I've been working with the Austin Civic Innovation Office and the US Conference of Mayors over the last year (creating artifacts from the future with 18 US Mayors, in fact). So the discussions on local government and where power lies in the future is an important part of my work and my thinking about the state of the world in 2019. I often start workshops by asking participants two questions: what keeps you up at night? and what gets you out of bed in the morning? So, I'll end this post with my own answers: What keeps me up at night? The perturbations of complex society are swinging more widely than ever, with no anchor to hold them steady. In complex systems, when the perturbations get too large, the system either transforms to a new phase, or it collapses. My fear, of course, is collapse. And in the U.S. that means a very agitated, well armed group of people taking their shit out on each other. What gets me up in the morning? The vacuum of leadership at the global and national levels opens up an opportunity for local and city-level power. After working with mayors of both parties, in every region of the country, at different scales of size, I have GREAT faith in city leaders right now, and can see a path forward for global, cosmopolitan networks to get positive things done. More later on social invention, high wyrdness, and how we might move forward.
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permalink #47 of 231: Craig Maudlin (clm) Thu 3 Jan 19 10:43
permalink #47 of 231: Craig Maudlin (clm) Thu 3 Jan 19 10:43
Yes please, Jake. Responding to Paula's <44>: > that technology will not change human nature Cranky perhaps, but we (obviously) need reminding. I think one reason is the need to shift agency -- it's a mental optimization needed for thought. We need to think in terms of "What Technology Wants" because we can't process the causal interrelationships fast enough. One result is that we don't realize that autonomy is usually just a form of delegation. (My self-driving car isn't really having the vacation it wanted)
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permalink #48 of 231: Matthew Battles (jonl) Thu 3 Jan 19 10:48
permalink #48 of 231: Matthew Battles (jonl) Thu 3 Jan 19 10:48
Via email from Matthew Battles: I'm curious to dig into the New Dark a bit more. I confess that I haven't started James's book yetI look forward to itbut I do note a little gap, a swerve, between a formula like "The New Dark" and "The New Dark *Age*. The latter evokes, for me, a Petrarchan historicity we might well do away with, or anyway regard side-eyed; the former seems more like a force stealing across the face of the thing we used to call "the world." I read "New Dark" and I think of the teeming obscurities of objects limned by the speculative materialists; I think of the faceless demonology of Eugene Thacker; I think of Latour's recent typology of worldlessness, with us never-have-been-moderns caught in transit between a World we never truly held and a Planet that doesn't want us any more. And of course, I think of Dark Mountain, whose proponents as early as 2009 were rejecting the sparkle of Bright-Green optimism for the teeth-gnashing joy of peri-apocalyptic separatism. The Dark Mountain folks were buying used caravans and heading for the downs long before the punctuated nomadism described here. What's different in this New Dark? other than naming less a commitment than a condition.
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permalink #49 of 231: Jamais Cascio (jonl) Thu 3 Jan 19 12:03
permalink #49 of 231: Jamais Cascio (jonl) Thu 3 Jan 19 12:03
Via email from our friend and colleague, Jamais Cascio: Hey there, futuregang Ive been flirting around this collective of thinkers for awhile now, like some Earth-grazing asteroid on an obscenely elliptical orbit. Feels like Ive been at the apogee of that orbit lately I can fully-sympathize with that writing block you described, <jonl>. I know that some of it comes from spending too much time looking at whats happening in the present day to think about what could come next. Gaze too long into the abyss, etc., except these days the abyss gets your metadata, too. I do most of my futures work with the Institute for the Future (much of it with/for Jake), and over my decade+ there Ive been cast as the in-house Dark Futures specialist. The one they turn to for the awful implications. The Eeyore that lets everyone else be someone on the Tigger-Owl spectrum. It was fun, at first; now its just exhausting. I spent much of this past Fall working on a deep, detailed look at the future of the global environment for a big IFTF client project, and by the end of it, I was ready to give up. Some of it also comes from the realization that the social (/political/technological/etc.) dynamics that the "clear-eyed optimists" of the late 1990s/early-mid 2000s embraced as the revolutions that will make the planet function properly openness, bottom-up collaborative movements, democracy, networks have by and large been captured by the people and ideologies that privilege winning in the short-term over flourishing in the long-term. Frankly, those people and ideologies seem to do a better job using those tools than we ever did. Its almost like that moment in a movie when our hero does a heel-turn and we realize that theyve been working with the bad guys except if wed been paying attention, we would have seen that all along. But (barring an asteroid, an escaped Ebola-Smallpox cocktail, or Great Dying-sized planetary methane burp) this isnt a movie with a distinct ending. Were living in the perpetual stinger. So we must persist. We have to muddle our way. I know that my entry here is more of a mental purge than a conversation point, so let me just ask a question. In the context of muddling through, of just dealing with it, what are you four seeing as positive harbingers? I gave a talk for the World Banks Global Risks conference a couple of years ago, and I finished by saying that the role of the futurist is often less Cassandra than Pandora. We talk about the horrors and pains, but we still need to be able to reveal hope at the bottom of the jar. Whats at the bottom of your jars?
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permalink #50 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 12:10
permalink #50 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Thu 3 Jan 19 12:10
To speak to Matthew Battles' question (hi!), I have a bad tendency to name things "new" and encapsulate them in aesthetics and ages... I agree with you entirely about the necessity of escaping the grip of successionism and suchlike. In fact, I'll just go ahead and quote Karen Barad, from her totally excellent 'Troubling Time(s)': "Any suggestion that the notion of the linearity of time is unsalvageable and ought to be replaced with a new, arguably superior, notion of time would be ironic, since it would be to fall into the logic of progress and supersessionism." and I reference that because her thoughts on what this New Dark looks and feels like come back to me all the time: "... it is possible to do a diffraction experiment in both space and time at once, whereupon a single particle will coexist in a superposition of multiple places and times (Diffraction of Matter Waves). In this case of spacetime diffraction, a diffraction pattern can be accounted for by taking account of all possible histories (configurings of spacetime), understanding that each such possibility coexists with all others. In particular, then, in its four-dimensional (relativistic spacetime) QFT elaboration, the probability that a particle that starts here-now will wind up there-then entails taking account of all possible histories, or rather, spacetimemattering configurings. Crucially, these possibilities are not to be thought of in the usual way: the diffraction pattern is not a manifestation of an uncertainty in our knowledge it is not that each history is merely possible, until we know more and then ultimately only one will be actualized the superposition marks ontology indeterminacy (not epistemological uncertainty) and the diffraction pattern indicates that each history coexists with the others." ONTOLOGICAL INDETERMINACY NOT EPISTEMOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY would have been a better, but less catchy book title. * Read the whole thing: https://www.dropbox.com/s/oz8hjbj06y2nrxi/Barad_troubling_time%28s%29.pdf?dl=1 And bringing myself back to Barad makes me think differently and possibly clearly about the question of aesthetics raised earlier... I want to make another go of it... starting with Solarpunk and all the beautiful stories and shapes its generating, particularly with regard to myth-making and the possibilities of fantasy. * This is a good intro to Solarpunk as well as the criticisms attendant on it: http://culturesofenergy.com/157-solarpunk-feat-rhys-williams/ (As the guest on the podcast points out, the IPCC reports are the biggest pieces of solarpunk fantasy out there, given that we don't currently actually have any of the technologies (such as large-scale carbon capture) required to keep warming down to basically liveable levels.) Solarpunk is a good antithesis to Dark Mountain futures (as much as I love them too), as it raises the possibility of a "good anthropocene" - not morally good, but non-miserable. It's a start. So yeah, how about https://goodanthropocenes.net/ I'd also like to state, from the discussion so far, that the thinking, caring, doing, and organising of "what next" isn't likely to and probably shouldn't come from anyone in this room. I've been watching and am more than inspired by the presentations from the recent Code Ecologies conference organised by the School for Poetic Computation in New York. If you're jaded and appalled by tech, you should watch this: * http://sfpc.io/codeecologies/ * Full stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsN_2oYnbLo (And if anyone knows about or wants to build similar structures in Southeast Europe, wave).
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