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permalink #76 of 231: Jamais Cascio (jonl) Fri 4 Jan 19 11:57
permalink #76 of 231: Jamais Cascio (jonl) Fri 4 Jan 19 11:57
Via email from Jamais Cascio: > "i feel optimistic in spite of the many dark things happening, optimistic that we are at the beginning of a new era. Ive been asked, more often than I can count, whether Im a pessimist or an optimist. My normal answer is Both. Im a short-term pessimist and a long-term optimist. We actually know what we need to do to make the world better, but were having a hell of a time getting to the point of being willing and able to do it. But Josh Bergers comment, via <magdalen> (hi, T! Really glad youre a part of this), made me think of previous times in history where weve found ourselves at the beginning of a new era. Were those causes for optimism, pessimism, or something else? All of the above? Because I absolutely agree that we are on the cusp of something new, culturally and politically, driven by/mediated through/changing the shape of our technologies. Paulina Borsook is absolutely spot-on that technology doesnt make people better and kinder, but our technologies do allow us to express our kindness in new ways, to different audiences and new families. Whatever this new era turns out to be, part of it will almost certainly be entirely new pathways for expressing that kindness, even if those pathways are also thoroughfares for malignancy. Or maybe I just need more coffee.
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permalink #77 of 231: Craig Maudlin (clm) Fri 4 Jan 19 12:39
permalink #77 of 231: Craig Maudlin (clm) Fri 4 Jan 19 12:39
> what we think is reason shifts So too, perhaps, 'what we think is technology shifts.'
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permalink #78 of 231: Matthew Battles (jonl) Fri 4 Jan 19 13:11
permalink #78 of 231: Matthew Battles (jonl) Fri 4 Jan 19 13:11
Via email from Matthew Battles: Thanks for your generous response to my questions, Jamesand to everyone in this thread for the sharing of ideas, questions, and hopes. "[T]o let ones' eyes adjust--and listen to those who've been outside"... this does seem the right way to meet the new darkness. It feels like it's been a bit of a breakthrough year for minoritarian futures, for indigenous perspectives on futurity in particular. Are there NDN fictions, first-nations speculations, afro- and other-futurisms that folks are following? It's notable that amid so much sublunary confusion, it's also been a year of looking to the heavens. Over against roadsters in space, I'm inclined to privilege the visit of 'Oumuamua, the first interstellar object to be detected and identified as such. Beyond the wonders of Ultima Thule, Mars, and the gravity-echoes of colliding black holes, however, the hygiene with which we approach stargazing also seems in need of a healthy readjustment. The urge to speculative fabulation in our astronomical imaginary needs to be nourished not only by new phenomena & discoveries, but new/old perspectives. What do you all see when you look to the stars? Whose constellations ring true for you now; whose celestial navigation do you trust?
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permalink #79 of 231: Paulina Borsook (loris) Fri 4 Jan 19 17:39
permalink #79 of 231: Paulina Borsook (loris) Fri 4 Jan 19 17:39
a friend just appointed me codirector of her hindsight institute (https://www.prabapilar.com/hindsightinstitute/ and yes it's mostly a joke. so in that spirit, of everything old is new again, was reminded of george stewart's 'earth abides' where a passing observation by the protag-survivor was that he now avoided dogs: they had gone feral and grown sleek feasting on the remains in hospitals in urban centers. this came to mind in fall 2018i i saw a documentary about dogs gone feral in tierra del fuego. argentine program of moving ppl from urban centers to tierra del fuego to work in electronics (yes, right) meant folks arrived there with little infrastructure nor knowledge of rural life. so they let their dogs run free or abandoned them and how quickly these dogs became feral, destroying the traditional sheepherding, and messing with the ecosystem overall. fireland dogs https://www.brownpapertickets.com/event/3609429 evidently this is a global problem, feral dogs in the urban/wildland interface.
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permalink #80 of 231: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Sat 5 Jan 19 10:06
permalink #80 of 231: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Sat 5 Jan 19 10:06
Hey everyone, first post, though I've been reading along all week, as I also do every year. The first thing I thought of when I saw we'd have multiple featured guests this year was how for the first time this year the Kennedy Center Honors honored a *team* instead of just the usual individuals. That was the four co-creators of Hamilton - watch the documentary about the creation, ("Hamilton's America" PBS), to see why it's well deserved. I am really enjoying each of your contributions, as well as how it seems to change the dynamic of the topic from being a firehose of early-warning observations and reports from the field to more of a conversation.
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permalink #81 of 231: Tiffany Lee Brown (T) (magdalen) Sat 5 Jan 19 11:24
permalink #81 of 231: Tiffany Lee Brown (T) (magdalen) Sat 5 Jan 19 11:24
thanks, keta. hope it's fun to read. so, you guys, how 'bout that Singularity? that's the moment when artificial/machine intelligence outstrips that of humanity, and/or when machine-based superintelligence gets so, like, *super*, that it wreaks massive changes on human civilization. Bruce says it's dead. various smart scientist people have proclaimed that it isn't possible, because, ya know, humans are soooooo special and ultrasmart, nothing can outpace us. one of my friends in the AI field claims we've already reached singularity. old news, he says, adding that the USA and silicon valley are pretty inconsequential compared to Asia and the Middle East in terms of technology and culture. <tvacorn> above says: > if the > singularity was really dead then I doubt people like Gates would be > pushing this macabre vision in which we literally outsource the > essence of our humanity ? our emotional life along with compassion > and empathy ? to highly sophisticated machines which Sherry Turkle at MIT has been warning us about for years. maybe the issue is how to define or frame the singularity. have we created outboard wetware that precisely mimics the human brain? nope. have we created a giant machine 'intelligence'-of-sorts that we now serve, rather than the other way 'round? i'd say we have. and perhaps that's what the singularity really is: the moment we start serving the robots.
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permalink #82 of 231: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sat 5 Jan 19 11:58
permalink #82 of 231: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sat 5 Jan 19 11:58
"have we created a giant machine 'intelligence'-of-sorts that we now serve, rather than the other way 'round? i'd say we have. and perhaps that's what the singularity really is: the moment we start serving the robots." How exactly do you see humans serving machines? I'm missing it. The technological singularity assumes that an artificial intelligence would become a learning system that would run through cycles of improvement sufficient to make it a superintelligence that would surpass all human intelligence. The difficulty I have with this speculative concept is that nobody's provided a definition of "intelligence" - in fact it's defined many ways for many contexts. And, if only for that reason, there's no clear way to compare machine intelligence to human intelligence. While machines do simulate human intelligence, it's questionable whether a machine thinks like a human thinks. I don't think anyone quite knows how the latter works anyway. I'm not afraid that Colossus is going to take all power, that humans will be subservient to computers. My concern would be that we delegate responsibilities to computers that they ultimately don't handle well. Jake had a speculative design concept that involved a future where AIs had replaced mayors in various cities, with results to disastrous that the practice was abandoned - I think outlawed - though AIs could still serve as consultants. Maybe he'll have more to say...
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permalink #83 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 5 Jan 19 12:56
permalink #83 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 5 Jan 19 12:56
To have a Singularity, you're supposed to have searingly fast advances in processing power, memory and bandwidth that go on indefinitely. It's not going to happen. On the plus side, I was watching AlphaZero play chess an entire year ago during the previous State of the World. Now I'm still doing that, there's better analysis of what the thing is up to, I'm enjoying it more than I did and I'm even starting to appreciate its beauty.
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permalink #84 of 231: Tom Valovic (tvacorn) Sat 5 Jan 19 13:46
permalink #84 of 231: Tom Valovic (tvacorn) Sat 5 Jan 19 13:46
Thanks for revisiting this topic <magdalen>. Lest anyone think that the Singularity and transhumanist "dream" is passe, a quick read of a November article in the "New Yorker" indicates otherwise. The article talks about DARPA's ongoing attempts at brain/machine interfacing via experimentation on human subjects. It describes how a paraplegic woman who was the subject of one such "successful" experiment eventually ended up supporting R&D efforts to develop thought-controlled military aircraft. The article a bit of a puff piece -- did remarkably little to question the ethics or wisdom of such experiments but did go on to briefly describe earlier research in using embedded brain tech to control human emotions and social behavior: "After the race riots of the late nineteen-sixties, two Harvard neurosurgeons proposed that neural electrodes could be used to quell social violence. In 1972, a Tulane psychiatrist used them to try to create heterosexual arousal in a gay man."
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permalink #85 of 231: Jane Hirshfield (jh) Sat 5 Jan 19 14:22
permalink #85 of 231: Jane Hirshfield (jh) Sat 5 Jan 19 14:22
Good piece to bring up-- but I read it as sounding a VERY clear warning about the militarization of the research. Presented as augmenting the capacities of the injured, the article stressed rather strongly that it could by the way be used to augment the capacities of battlefield robots and/or soldiers. That it was a kind of conceptual bait and switch that allowed the ethics to go unquestioned, I took that as no small part of the point. But the piece wasn't particularly about letting the machines make the decisions, and then the decisions about the decisions.
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permalink #86 of 231: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Sat 5 Jan 19 21:54
permalink #86 of 231: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Sat 5 Jan 19 21:54
>My concern would be that we delegate responsibilities to computers that they ultimately don't handle well. Which gets us right back to Facebook and social media algorithms... Another example would be electronic trading bringing down global financial markets. I think your whole post <82> is fascinating Jon, because as you query the idea of a technological singularity, what comes up for me is how you also touch on the really interesting parts of the Gaia hypothesis. >The technological singularity assumes that an artificial intelligence would become a learning system that would run through cycles of improvement sufficient to make it a superintelligence that would surpass all human intelligence. If you just replace the word "technological" with "biological" and the word "artificial" with "distributed" you get a sentence that could be Lovelock. Yes, the entire living system became superintelligent and self-regulating, surpassing humans long ago. And as far as nobody providing a definition of intelligence, what has been fascinating me this year has been places where intelligence has been pointed out to me that I had completely missed precisely because I had too rigid a definition of intelligence. Trees think. Forests think. Slime mold thinks (and can design the Tokyo subway system given a map of the city). Perhaps places think. Very likely it all thinks. It's very true that nobody knows how a machine thinks, (and thus we can't be sure the simulation is the reality), but I'm starting to wonder if the intellectually faulty (or at least treacherous) problem of defining intelligence "many ways for many contexts" is also somehow a key to something important and not always just a fixable kind of sloppiness. Someone asked above "What keeps you up at night?" Well, one thing for me is playing out the implications of the Gaia hypothesis - or more warmly stated, the reality of "Mother Nature". Because when you're talking about machines and singularity, certainly the thing to fear is becoming subservient to them. But in the case of perceiving other kinds of intelligence, receptivity is of primary importance, and in the case of Mother Nature, service is exactly what you want, and the whole game is releasing blocks to being of service, in service, all that. This brings me to what Matthew Battles commented in <78>, that: >It feels like it's been a bit of a breakthrough year for minoritarian futures, for indigenous perspectives on futurity in particular. Are there NDN fictions, first-nations speculations, afro- and other-futurisms that folks are following? And I would say, yes, that is exactly where my interest has been drawn this year. Ilarion Merculieff of the Global Center for Indigenous Leadership is particularly articulate. The fascinating way that Standing Rock transformed the language of protest - we are not "protesters" we are "protectors". More on all that in later posts.
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permalink #87 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:18
permalink #87 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:18
I watched rather a lot of chess videos last year, and not because I like chess. I watch the games because Im seeking out aesthetic principles for generative art systems. People sometimes call chess The Drosophila of Artificial Intelligence. However, its not the long computer-science history of AI and chess that interests me. I dont play chess, and Ill never be good at it. Mostly, I want to understand why AlphaZero, the neural-net super-chess player currently undefeated by any person or any engine plays in such a pretty way. To start, I have to make an aesthetic argument that AlphaZero indeed plays beautifully. I dont want to just declare that, de gustibus non disputandum Ill try to shore that up with some evidence. So, well, at least the things famous: its a hit. AlphaZero is genuinely popular among chess fans. The more conventional chess AIs the engines, in fan-speak can certainly kick the ass of any human player. However, human chess fans never clamor to see their games. The engines bore people; their games lack grace. AlphaZero, though, has some major admirers. Chess masters even like it. They praise its play in public.
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permalink #88 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:19
permalink #88 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:19
Also, you might try comparing AlphaZeros games to the recent human world chess championship between Magnus Carlsen and Fabiano Caruana. These two guys, Carlsen and Caruana, are excellent modern chess players and very erudite professionals, but they play more like conventional chess engines than AlphaZero does. In their recent head-to-head match, Carlsen and Caruana ground it out in endless draws. They never blundered: they were inhumanly consistent. So, they had to decide their world championship in sudden-death matches, where theres very little time to devote any human intelligence to the state of the board. Then Carlsen then won promptly because hes got a well-known knack for playing rapidly. None of those Carlsen-Caruana games are beautiful immortal games. Those game are world-class, but they wont be fondly remembered decades from now.
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permalink #89 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:22
permalink #89 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:22
Im no chess pro, so a lot of the stamp-collector subtleties are bound to pass me by. However, I can tell if the events on the board would make a live audience gasp and applaud. Chess does have an aesthetics; people get a frisson from it; theyre thrilled, even. Chess has been pretty for a long time. Id even argue that there are aesthetically prettier games that date from the old-fashioned 1800s, at least in the kinetic-art sense of the way that pieces elegantly swoop and move around. Years ago, chess people had very little theory. There werent a lot of book openings or book endings to memorize, so grandmasters were bashing it out like sword-fighters. So in these much older, historic games theres lots of crowd-pleasers, the too-bold strikes, the head-exploding unnecessary complications, deliberate tricks, traps, cunning swindles psychological operations even, where one grandmaster knows hes got the other on the ropes, so he moves in for the kill with dazzling stunt moves that he knows will upset the opponent. AlphaZero doesnt do any of that. It doesnt even do what its best-known public opponent, the engine Stockfish, does. It never plays like a human, but also, it doesnt play like any standard computer code engine with its motor-like sets of specialized component subroutines, and its value-weighting system. Its hard to describe what it does, in the arcane computer-science realities of neural-net back-propagation, but, well, its still just software, all right. AlphaZero is the winningest chess engine ever, but its not an AI god, it's not getting insanely better. Its not an amazing, mystic Singularity that is accelerating off the charts; its game-skill seems to be leveling off. Also, AlphaZeros play, once you get used to watching it, is a bit same-y. AlphaZero wins all the time, but it is not brilliantly inventive. It doesnt toss off an endless bravura series of super-complicated, brain-scrambling gambits. Its just dazzlingly unorthodox by the previous standards of humans or non-neural AI engines.
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permalink #90 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:23
permalink #90 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:23
Some people say that AlphaZero's play is beautiful in a mathematical way, in the way that math is beautiful when its simple and true. But I doubt that AlphaZero has actually solved chess, in the sense that its neural net method of play is the one true method, and the only method that henceforth will ever win an AI chess game. I believe that, oddly, because Ive got more faith in AI than that. Im a big AI skeptic, but the defeated Stockfish has got heaps more AI in it than AlphaZero does. AI has not conquered chess, because AlphaZero is just a modestly-sized neural net. As an engine, AlphaZeros not all that big, not powerful in processors, not ultra-fast in code execution and it doesnt have heaps of Big Data about chess-game databases. Im inclined to surmise that gangs of very specialized AIs with databases of all of AlphaZeros games would be able to gang up on it and defeat it. Also, new neural-net architectures are waiting.
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permalink #91 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:24
permalink #91 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:24
I may be wrong about that last part; maybe the phase-space of chess has been exhausted by AlphaZero, and itll always be the greatest at chess, forever. But would it be the greatest at some variant that wasnt chess, a super-complex game that was a million squares across, instead of eight? Probably not. That means that we can put aside a hushed, amazed respect for AlphaZero. Its okay to pick at it critically. Like you might analyze other beautiful, nonhuman phenomena. Snowflakes, maybe. Human artists cant draw a billion beautiful snowflakes in ten minutes, but its pretty common to have them fall out of the sky. Sometimes a snowfall is very pretty, even enchanted-looking, other times snow is damp, gloomy, ugly and oppressive, and its all right of us to look out the window and assess that pretty snow. Thats not presumptuous of us, its more like a pleasant statement of our willingness to live in the world we're in.
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permalink #92 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:25
permalink #92 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:25
AlphaZero is not an intelligent human, though it would do well at a chess Turing test. Chess masters usually know when theyre blind-matched against engines. AlphaZero, though, plays with such dazzling efficiency that it would probably be world-famous if nobody knew what it was. It would slaughter all other human players with its naive brilliance, but it might be taken for a child-prodigy. I appreciate the public commentary that chess analysts offer about AlphaZero, but they always attribute intentionality to it, which I dislike. AlphaZero wants to do this, it plans to do that, it wants to avoid doing this . That certainly happens in human chess, and even engine chess has some kind of value-driven routine where its trying to achieve some state of the board, in some sense of trying. Watching AlphaZero play is more like watching frost forming on the the window. The frost has plenty of moisture over here but it wants to invade the part of the window over here where its not as damp, that remark seems illegitimate to me. It gets in the way of properly appreciating the beauty of whats going on. Its a tooth-fairy explanation.
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permalink #93 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:27
permalink #93 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:27
I do have some ideas about why AlphaZeros play looks so pretty. If it was an artist asking me for advice as a critic, this is the helpful feedback I would offer to young Alpha. Youve clearly got a gift for that part you should do more of that! 1. Since AlphaZero taught itself to play, its play is free of the human installed base, so its liberated to do things that surprise humans. It has a kind of charming wunderkind naivety. That element of surprise is beautiful it has a gosh-wow factor but I dont think itll last. Ten years from now, people will be talking quite knowingly about neural-net play. The sense of wonder has a short shelf life. 2. It doesnt value the pieces. Its not emotionally or algorithmically attached to them; to throw away a valuable rook for a cheap knight is no problem. This looks very daring and even ethereal by human standards. Even engines wont do that because they tend to hoard everything, rather like Apple mopping up profits. 3. AlphaZero always plays the whole board it never gets tangled up in the hot corner where all the action seems to be. So its continually retreating to distant areas of the board where the bishops, rooks and queen are just as powerful, but its hard for a human eye and brain to stay focussed. After you see AlphaZero do this twenty or thirty times, though, youre like: Huh. Its doing that bishop-way-over-yonder thing again. I think this is the new aspect of AlphaZeros native play that human masters will pick up pretty quickly. 4. Its very tidy. It makes small, rather feline movements to adjust its positional structure, rather than bulldozing in to crush all resistance. It commonly does these little grace-notes at the exact time that a human player would be getting really excited and bashing-in for the kill. Theres something really pretty about these small, neat moves theyre like blue-notes in jazz. Or, rather, its just got its own swinging tempo; jazz defeating chamber-music. Theres something oddly gracious and feminine about this machines apparent attention-to-detail. These apparently small and irrelevant housekeeping moves often turn out to be keys to victory. So you cant dismiss that as tidiness - its like complaining that your neat-freak Mom does the laundry too often, while next door theyre all dying of typhus. AlphaZeros refined, delicate chess play feels like an advance in civilization, rather than just an advance in the game. Its like its figured out table manners and washing your hands it makes the previous era of chess look like feudal life in a barracks.
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permalink #94 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:29
permalink #94 of 231: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 6 Jan 19 04:29
So, well, I enjoyed that. An engrossing game, chess. Been around quite a while, and in 2019, particularly interesting. However what does chess imply for the aesthetics of other, seemingly very different forms of algorithmic expression? Is there some kind of Artificial Artistic Intelligence lurking here, which might have broader applications for other things that get diligently wound-up and seem to run on their own, such as code art, motion graphics, device art, installations, techno music? Im still working on that issue, in a Drosophila lab-style, but I do think about it differently than I did just a year ago. And when this year 2019 is over, well, maybe Ill get somewhere. We have to hope, even if AlphaZero cant and doesnt. As special brain-candy for hardcore chess fans, heres Napoleon Bonaparte getting his ass kicked by the Mechanical Turk. Allegedly, anyway. I admit it: I wasnt there. http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1250610
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permalink #95 of 231: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Sun 6 Jan 19 06:36
permalink #95 of 231: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Sun 6 Jan 19 06:36
Fascinating. I brought up Ilarion Merculieff, the Aleut elder earlier. He describes himself as being of the last generation that had a traditional education, and says that it primarily consisted of watching and wondering. When he was five or six he says he remembers watching a cliff full of seabirds for days and weeks and months on end, watching the birds do things like fly up in a flock and then wheel and dip and turn as one, wondering, "How do they do that?" He says the traditional way of education was simply to support the naive child in its curiosity. His grandfather was the one primarily in charge of his education, and when the young Ilarion would ask a question, instead of answering, his grandfather would just point him back to observing - the answer was there, in the preserved and developing naivete. We think of traditional knowledge as being handed down, but maybe it is protecting the great plastic capacity, keeping alive the possibility of seeing with new eyes that is the secret. "Aiglatson," as it were. Now I'm interested in AlphaZero too...
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permalink #96 of 231: Tom Valovic (tvacorn) Sun 6 Jan 19 08:41
permalink #96 of 231: Tom Valovic (tvacorn) Sun 6 Jan 19 08:41
Bruce Id be very interested in any thoughts you might have about posts 84 and 85. My take on the transhumanist agenda is that its about perfecting and enhancing human capability. There are plenty of pop culture examples around to illustrate how deeply this meme is embedded in our cultural mapping. Transformers, the Terminator movie, the Nietzschean notion of Übermensch, often roughly translated as Superman. So it seems fair to ask if the AI/ BMI quest driving to the singularity (I see them as existentially equivalent) connects at some level with these value-laden memes and the overall but likely misguided notion of human perfectibility. >86 and earlier My concern would be that we delegate responsibilities to computers that they ultimately don't handle well. Yes of course and this brings up the issue of ethical and even spiritual considerations. Designers and programmers will likely never be able to create a true ethical sensibility and the more spiritual aspects of human experience in AI and no degree of developed intelligence can be considered worthy without this checkpoint. The logical conclusion is that such creations will be ontologically flawed from day one, even as they may make important contributions to various other human pursuits and endeavors. Some will argue that ethical capability can be encapsulated in an algorithm, despite the fact that ethics debates have raged for centuries. Implicit is the notion that programmers themselves will act as the final arbiters of whatever ethical profiles are developed. But heres the Catch 22: the programmer can only create something that already exists within the programmers mind. >86 again. The Gaia hypothesis stipulated a living system not just a complex adaptive system in my understanding
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permalink #97 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Sun 6 Jan 19 09:56
permalink #97 of 231: James Bridle (stml) Sun 6 Jan 19 09:56
I haven't watched as many Chess games as Bruce has, but I've been reading a lot of conversation around AlphaZero and AlphaGo/Master etc... it was fascinating and disconcerting to watch this "alien intelligence" (a Go master's word) land in a world of human players... The part I keep returning to is the Advanced Chess model, which I trot out a lot because I think it has a very strong and interesting message. When Kasparov was defeated by Deep Blue, he was very very pissed off, but he came back the next year with Advanced Chess (aka Centaur Chess) which was the same game played by human/computer teams (as opposed to human vs computer). And this immediately became wildly interesting, with wholly new approaches to play being generated very quickly. One of the most startling findings of Advanced Chess is that while even a modest chess computer can now thrash any human player, a human and a modest computer working together can beat a much more powerful computer playing alone. There's a transformative combinatorial effect at work that magnifies the strengths of both ways of thinking (and, to my mind, emphasises their differences in interesting ways). Google has talked a bit about what it calls the Optometrist Algorithm, which it developed with Tri Alpha Energy, a fusion startup. This is essentially Advanced Chess applied to scientific experiment: runs of TA's experimental fusion reactor are assessed by a human and a machine learning algo, with the algo presenting a human overseer with a selection of possible tweaks to the parameters, and the human choosing which set to follow. One result is one that Bruce notes in the chess play: the whole board gets played. Humans have a natural tendency to ignore the edges and concentrate on a few variables (e.g. piece value in chess). The algo doesn't do this, so everything is in play, but the human plays hunches too. Centaur approaches (which Matt Jones, now design director at Google AI, has been talking about for some time) are a lot more hopeful than singularity fears - hoping, of course, that we get to be the front end of the horse.
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permalink #98 of 231: Jane Hirshfield (jh) Sun 6 Jan 19 11:44
permalink #98 of 231: Jane Hirshfield (jh) Sun 6 Jan 19 11:44
I found keta's post (#86) quite fascinating--in its entirely, but especially in raising the comparison of the Singularity to the Gaia Hypothesis, and our differing emotional responses to them. But of course Gaia isn't something new, potentially transcending our human capacities, Gaia produced them. Our cultural distrust of 'the machines' taking over is rooted perhaps in a right humility, the sense that anything we created, even if it then begins to enact its own evolution-equivalent, cannot be as wise as the sum of the unfathomably numerous experiments run by the biosphere through time. But then if we include what we have made as part of Gaia's making--what then? Might I/we have a different, warmer, emotional response? The way that one of my geneticist friends (unlike most of my geneticist friends) is wildly enthusiastic about human beings taking control of our own future evolution, full steam ahead? (Don't worry, friend is now retired, and was studying what is, not creating what is not yet.) Not being a chess player, I cannot appreciate AlphaZero's beauty except by the picture Bruce draws of its novel ways of playing. To do the effective thing in ways not previously known is surely one of our human definitions of beauty. This perhaps makes it qualitatively different from other forms of computer-generated "art." Chess is a game with a goal, knowable, recognizable; one party or the other wins. Art, in the more classical sense of that word, leads toward some not-before-seen destination, which nonetheless leaves the viewer/reader with a feeling that something has been effected. In my own field--words--computer-generated works are thus far rather dispiriting to engage with. There may be passing beauties, but you could arrive at the same kind of inventions by any randomizing process. The works as a whole, though, feel vapid. James brings in another view yet with the Centaur model. Expansion. A useful and lovely metaphor--though I wonder, is it the Singularity when the classical Greek Centaur image trades its halves? When the humans become the embodying hooves and the AI the head?
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permalink #99 of 231: Craig Maudlin (clm) Sun 6 Jan 19 11:51
permalink #99 of 231: Craig Maudlin (clm) Sun 6 Jan 19 11:51
(slippage) > There's a transformative combinatorial effect... This reminds me of the scenario offered by William Calvin in his book, "THE THROWING MADONNA: FROM NERVOUS CELLS TO HOMINID BRAIN" > Calvin, a distinguished Univ. of Washington neurophysicist, starts > off this collection of essays with a wild surmise. We are right-handed > (most of us) because women discovered early on that babies calm down > when pressed where they can hear the heartbeat; that means cradling > the baby with your left hand. Some wise lady tool-users also > discovered that they could hold a child and lob a rock at a passing > rabbit, thereby increasing the larder at little energy expenditure. > Since one side of the brain is usually better at programming rapid > sequencing (like throwing a ball), mothers with left-brain sequencers > might then be more successful at hunting--and mothering--and thus > increase their genes in the pool. Hence, the Throwing Madonna. Though > Calvin milks this theme in the first few essays (in terms of bigger > brains, handwriting, etc.), he admits it's conjectural, and then > moves on. taken from: <https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/william-h-calvin-2/the-throwing-mad onna-from-nervous-cells-to-homi/>
inkwell.vue.506
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State of the World 2019
permalink #100 of 231: Craig Maudlin (clm) Sun 6 Jan 19 12:25
permalink #100 of 231: Craig Maudlin (clm) Sun 6 Jan 19 12:25
> wildly enthusiastic about human beings taking control of our own > future evolution I've been nursing the notion that, as generations have passed, we have drifted away from the original understanding of 'Cybernetics' as the science of "control and communication in the animal and machine." James Lovelock initially defined Gaia as: "a complex entity involving the Earth's biosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and soil; the totality constituting a feedback or cybernetic system which seeks an optimal physical and chemical environment for life on this planet." Perhaps because the 'natural' and 'constructed' worlds came to be seen as opposites, it tends to be difficult to keep the ideas of 'animal' and 'machine' in mind long enough to discern the true cybernetic aspects of each.
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