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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #251 of 281: Why so glum, chum? (jonl) Sat 13 Jan 24 08:29
permalink #251 of 281: Why so glum, chum? (jonl) Sat 13 Jan 24 08:29
In the USA, far-right autocrats apparently supported by external oligarchs have taken more power than we imagined they could, led by a charismatic demagogue and working from a cultivated set of cultural grievances, using sophisticated psyops especially well-enabled by unregulated social media platforms that were ripe for manipulation. They've managed to take control of a political party and elect enough obstructionists to throw the legislative branch of government into chaos. They've taken advantage of years of groundwork by conservatives who previously controlled the Republican party, and they've also leveraged the popularity of right-wing tabloid news organizations that have gained popularity over the last couple of decades as cable news channels have become effective sources of political propaganda. They're related to a global autocratic movement that has recently lit the fuse on a couple of major wars as part of a more general global chaos movement to topple democratic governments wherever they still stand. It's a dark time. The USA will have an election on 2024 that could be the end of its long commitment to a democratic intention. This could mean the rise of global autocracy, a radical change in the way we live and do business. Democracy, per Churchill "the worst form of government, except for all the others," will fall to those more-worst forms. Many who support this potential transition are simply ignorant of the implications. One of those implications is that we will see an increase in the carbon burn that will ultimately make this planet uninhabitable by humans. Extinction will be the likely outcome. Having said all that, I think I'll wander into the other room and watch television for a while.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #252 of 281: Andrew Alden (alden) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:20
permalink #252 of 281: Andrew Alden (alden) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:20
Well put.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #253 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:22
permalink #253 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:22
Well, we're getting close to wrapping up now, so I'll mention what I'm up to, when I'm not handwaving in pundit-fashion here at the WELL State of the World. So, here's an essay that I wrote this month, which is about the sculptor Alexander Calder inventing weird objects for his house. I'm pretty pleased about this effort, because it involves some art-critic issues I've been thinking about a long time. Also, my essay has a point to make, and it marshals some evidence to back it, and even if it might be quite wrong. at least it's clearly stated. https://link.medium.com/wRQjEPdDkGb
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #254 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:25
permalink #254 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:25
I place rather a lot of odd, long-form stuff on Medium, and commonly people click on it, look, and then promptly go somewhere else. This particular essay, "The Homemade Limits of Everyday Weirdness," takes an ominous 49 minutes to read, and yet, two out of three people who do click, they somehow sit there fixated, and they diligently read the entire thing. That's an unheard-of response rate, by Bruce Sterling standards. Also, nobody edited it, so it's rather loose and repetitive, and it's concerned with truly arcane topics like kinetic art and abstract Modernism. It's a hit, though, by my Medium standards. Somehow, it's connecting with readers. So, you could go leave the WELL and read it or not bother, but for the sake of the WELL discussion I'd like to point out how strange the *form* of this essay is. Even though it *acts* like maybe it's some particular kind of writing, it just isn't. Instead, it's a mash-up hybrid of many specialized genres of non-fiction writing.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #255 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:26
permalink #255 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:26
It's sort of like a design-school classroom lecture (complete with slides). It talks about household consumer objects and industrial design quite a lot. Then there's an extensive break for some biography of a little kid and his family and their travels. There's some extensive psychoanalysis of a guy's wife. Also there's a long account of a couple of guys in 1930s Paris, meeting in a studio and discussing what abstract art ought to properly do. Then, also, somehow, there's a whole bunch of pictures (which aren't even proper art illustrations, they're just boldly stolen screenshots). The subjects of the pictures are discussed at length -- and not in some dry, accurate way, but in quite a slippery, speculative way. And then, somehow, it ends with a personal confession and a New Year's resolution, as if the whole thing was somehow intended as a personal diary entry. Of course it isn't private at all though, because it's published on the web.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #256 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:27
permalink #256 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:27
So, you might think, optimististically, "Well, this is modern digital freedom of speech in action! Nobody asked the writer to write anything in particular, so he can just gush out whatever he wants! So, if he wants to be an art critic, and an industrial design critic, and also a journalist, and a diarist, and a travel writer, and an arts historian, and he also somehow wants to talk at great length about home repairs, why shouldn't he just do *all that stuff all at once*? You can tell from his tone that he's really anxious to bave at it, and after he did it, he felt better, so where is the problem?" Okay, I wouldn't call this essay a big problem -- (I can't even call it an "essay," because essays don't have pirated fine-art jpegs) -- but when I looked at this text a few days after hitting the "publish" button, I realized that it was one of the most peculiar things that I ever wrote. Normally, when I'm writing some extensive text, I have in mind some idea of an editor, a publisher, a demographic of readers. It's gonna be a publishable work of fiction, or a journalistic article, that fits into some kind of genre or category. It might possibly be a new subgenre or else some little-explored category, but it shouldn't be ten different categories all at once in the very same piece of prose.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #257 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:29
permalink #257 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:29
But that's what it is. And also, the readers don't seem at all confused. They don't recognize its radical formal disorder, they just kind of breeze right through the thing. They don't feel jolted that it is radically switching subjects, topics, and approaches, every eighty words or so. I'm thinking that maybe the habit of scrolling has inured them to this. It feels okay to them that they're reading a loosely-linked bouillabaisse, a kind of associational fish stew. It's not that it's just a verbal rant or farrago, some guy on stage, riffing in stand-up style -- on the contrary, it's kind of persistently chewing, ruminating, on a central cud of a problem that's posed in the very first sentence -- but it's like an entire herd of cows is chewing that haypile, ten different animals biting and tearing from ten directions.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #258 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:30
permalink #258 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:30
So, when I finished it, I thought, "Well, this looks-and-feels like a new, compelling approach for me, I may be writing a lot more of this henceforth." Which is okay, I guess, but.... What the heck is it? Suppose that someone wanted to reprint it. Reprint it as *what*? Reprint it where? What conventional publisher could reasonably do that? Or suppose that it won some nice writerly award. An award for what, exactly? If some other writer had written this piece and I'd stumbled across it, I think I would have said to myself, "Well, I guess it's great that this arcane topic hooked his interest and he had such a mental snowstorm about it, but where is this supposed to go? What does he do for an encore?" And I don't know, but in this year I suspect there will be more of that happening. I'd like to do a better job of it. I'm not sure how.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #259 of 281: Gary Gach (ggg) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:42
permalink #259 of 281: Gary Gach (ggg) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:42
I hope t.v. wasn't playing "Don't Look Up," Jon. All seriousness aside, you said a mouthful ~ & how many others, or how few, are aware of what your lucidity points to? Extinction. Human extinction. Once province of science-fiction, now science has caught up to fiction as fact. No other living species contemplates its own collective demise. Honestly, isn't this is the worst suffering inherent in these times: witnessing great suffering in which we feel powerless to intervene? Reminds me of the American war in Vietnam, as an era pervaded by a sense of collective impotence to end the needless suffering visible daily on network news. Having since taken up a career of mindfulness, of Zen, do I see our similar situation differently? Yes. That's <252>. One part of me wants to provide an island of solidity in the oceanic multi-polycrisis, to ameliorate the suffering of others, those aware or unaware of <251>, and for those less visible, whether bipoc, lgbqt, disabled, etc. One part of me wants to do the same thing but so as to ameliorate my own suffering. So for me the unfolding multi-polycrisis is thus for me a Great Calling: simply to look inward and outward at the same time, awakening from the illusion of separation. Regardless of outcome, it would feel unconscionable to me not to join voice with others. As here. The state of the world as the state of ourselves, as well. And whats the point of seeing the state of it if we dont act upon it? Everybody doesnt have to do everything. We can each do just one thing.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #260 of 281: Gary Gach (ggg) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:47
permalink #260 of 281: Gary Gach (ggg) Sat 13 Jan 24 10:47
< slippage > between Jon & Bruce.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #261 of 281: Axon (axon) Sat 13 Jan 24 11:39
permalink #261 of 281: Axon (axon) Sat 13 Jan 24 11:39
I confess I have little confidence that humanity will summon the will to do the hard work that they must undertake to forestall extinction. Extinction itself is ultimately inevitable, of course. In about 800 million years, the sun is going to go through its own bardo of self immolation and earth and every living thing on it is going to turn into a cinder. So the prospect of sapiens EOLing is less daunting perhaps than it ought to be, taking the long view. But it does seem inescapable that roughly half the human population of the planet will die within the space of a single generation sometime this century, and likely earlier than even the most pessimistic projections. And it's going to break our hearts (for very small values of "our"; I will count it fantastic luck if I see another twenty years). My hope is that the collective grief over what hubris and neglect will have wrought will impel the survivors to adapt in ways that inform a gentler relationship to the planet. My working hypothesis is that roughly 40% of any species (chordata, anyway) are net maladaptive. They serve to feed the next higher link on the food chain, and to make the mistakes the rest of the herd learns from. The problem with sapiens is that it has no natural predators. Thus we've historically squandered much of our creative capacity inventing ever novel strategies for reducing the population by misadventure. But even taking Mozart, Einstein, and Taylor Swift into consideration, we're still barely conscious primates; brainstems with appetites. If humanity was a tech stock, I'd short it. Maybe cetaceans will make a better go of it.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #262 of 281: Paulina Borsook (loris) Sat 13 Jan 24 12:41
permalink #262 of 281: Paulina Borsook (loris) Sat 13 Jan 24 12:41
well, i liked the whatever it was, <bruces>. it sort of read like the life and works of the person you were writing about; meandering about/finding its way...
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #263 of 281: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sat 13 Jan 24 13:07
permalink #263 of 281: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sat 13 Jan 24 13:07
> Extinction. Human extinction. Once province of science-fiction, now science has caught up to fiction as fact. I'm going to pick on this a little not because it's unusual but because it's a common trope, all too typical these days. We aren't extinct (obviously), so this is not a fact. The future isn't a realm of facts, but of forecasts, scenarios, and make-believe. It isn't known to us, and it may surprise us. It certainly has before. The notion of human extinction is a meme, a mental construct, a dark scenario. It's also not new; it's been commonly talked about since World War II, at least. Dark scenarios are important to think about, sometimes practical for disaster planning, and a venerable science fiction tradition. But taking possibilities in your head and transmuting them into immutable "fact" is a common symptom of depressive thinking. A little ad-hoc cognitive behavioral therapy might be in order? You need to notice exaggerated thoughts like that and argue with them a bit. I'm not exactly a fun and cheerful guy. I entertain this stuff and encourage disaster planning. But the dark scenarios need to be put into perspective. There are others.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #264 of 281: David Gans (tnf) Sat 13 Jan 24 14:54
permalink #264 of 281: David Gans (tnf) Sat 13 Jan 24 14:54
<scribbled by tnf Sat 13 Jan 24 14:55>
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #265 of 281: from MICHAEL BROCKINGTON (tnf) Sat 13 Jan 24 14:55
permalink #265 of 281: from MICHAEL BROCKINGTON (tnf) Sat 13 Jan 24 14:55
Michael Brockington writes: If the State of the World in 2024 seems a bit boring, perhaps this owes something to a feeling of post-pandemic letdown. We were promised an apocalypse! All we got was enshittification. Picking up on comment 220, the "pseudo-speakeasy trend" is well entrenched here in Vancouver, Canada. One place comes to mind that operates as a dumpling restaurant - but if you order a particular off-menu item, you're ushered into a bar hidden behind what looks like the door to an industrial freezer. There are enough similar joints here to populate a good-sized listicle. Vancouver has also long been known for progressive drug policy. Cannabis was de facto legal in Vancouver for a couple decades before being legalized across Canada. We did pioneering work with safe-injection sites, and this past year saw the decriminalization of many hard drugs in small amounts for personal use. It's yin and yang, I believe. As drugs lose their stigma (eroding their glamour, likewise), people grow nostalgic for a time when mind-altering substances were illegal, or at least disreputable. Circling back, perhaps boredom is an appropriate response to a world where LSD has become an efficiency hack, akin to a coffee break. "Turn on, tune in, and get back to work!" I guess we can blame Big Tech for that as well.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #266 of 281: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sat 13 Jan 24 16:01
permalink #266 of 281: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sat 13 Jan 24 16:01
Great essay in <253>. In Calder's origins I'm reminded of an older tradition of American inventors and tinkerers. Based on memories of my grandfather's farm and my Dad's work around the house, it seems like farmers were (are?) accustomed to making do and building stuff out of old scrap lying around, and this was very much about saving money. There's plenty of space for old junk. Some of those weird objects remind me of artifacts I'd see of unclear purpose in the tool shanty. It was a complete mess and finding stuff was a hunt. They were accustomed to risk. Tractors and chainsaws and home-built wood splitters and woodworking tools are dangerous and you don't want little kids messing with them unsupervised, but have their uses. They wouldn't have worried about the food safety of a homemade wooden spoon.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #267 of 281: Andrew Alden (alden) Sat 13 Jan 24 16:18
permalink #267 of 281: Andrew Alden (alden) Sat 13 Jan 24 16:18
Bruce, you have written an essay in its original sense, un essaie, a trial, a stroll around the square. Yours is a sure-footed, refreshing wander around the outer and inner Calder. A good look around that bust of Calder in the public hall of honor, front and back. Many thanks!
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #268 of 281: Bruce Fox (brucefox) Sat 13 Jan 24 18:15
permalink #268 of 281: Bruce Fox (brucefox) Sat 13 Jan 24 18:15
Thank you Bruce for <253>. I'm teaching my class in making Calder mobiles on Saturday and was preparing the tools and materials. Then while reading your article an email came in from a person across the country who is learning to make mobiles from my book from 20 years ago and can't find the stock number of the rivets I was using then and could I help? I get him onto a current supplier that is internet friendly and go back to your article. Just where I want to be. I'm thinking that 02024 might not be so bad after all.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #269 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 14 Jan 24 01:09
permalink #269 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sun 14 Jan 24 01:09
*Our friend Captain Bing Copilot is being sued by the New York Times. I hope he's not convicted of a felony and deprived of his right to vote. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/business/media/new-york-times-open-ai-micro soft-lawsuit.html (...) In one example of how A.I. systems use The Timess material, the suit showed that Browse With Bing, a Microsoft search feature powered by ChatGPT, reproduced almost verbatim results from Wirecutter, The Timess product review site. The text results from Bing, however, did not link to the Wirecutter article, and they stripped away the referral links in the text that Wirecutter uses to generate commissions from sales based on its recommendations. Decreased traffic to Wirecutter articles and, in turn, decreased traffic to affiliate links subsequently lead to a loss of revenue for Wirecutter, the complaint states....
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #270 of 281: from MICHAEL BROCKINGTON (tnf) Sun 14 Jan 24 07:39
permalink #270 of 281: from MICHAEL BROCKINGTON (tnf) Sun 14 Jan 24 07:39
2023 was the year I started finding AI tools useful in my work as a documentary film editor. On a fairly mundane level, AI audio transcription is pretty good now. Not good as a human, but much cheaper and faster. (i.e. <https://www.rev.com/pricing>) Quality is less critical, since these transcripts are a tool for the editor, not a final product for an audience. AI transcription certainly works well enough to be useful plowing through interviews (likely that's been true for a few years, now, and I'm late to the party), but it doesn't change anything fundamental - although it may make transcription possible for some lower-budget projects that couldn't otherwise afford it. It does seem certain to replace many human transcribers. More interesting are the AI image enhancement tools provided by Topaz Labs (<https://www.topazlabs.com/topaz-video-ai>). These allow upscaling video by 200-400% or more, for instance, with quality good enough to use in a final program. Of course upscaling could be done easily before, but the results of mathematical interpolation generally looked pretty crappy, at scale factors well below 200%. These AI tools are not interpolating so much as inventing missing detail that looks remarkably convincing. This tool does expand possibilities, allowing me to work with footage in ways I would have rejected before. It isn't replacing human labour, though - I doubt any human was ever OCD enough to stipple in the missing detail between the hundreds of thousands of pixels of a blown-up image, 24 frames per second. I would be curious to hear how other members of this very diverse group might be incorporating current AI tools in their work. Cheers, --Michael Brockington (I added angle brackets around the URLs to make them clickable)
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #271 of 281: Alan Fletcher : Factual accounts are occluded by excess of interpretation (af) Sun 14 Jan 24 09:40
permalink #271 of 281: Alan Fletcher : Factual accounts are occluded by excess of interpretation (af) Sun 14 Jan 24 09:40
I use chatGPT4 for web design (small but complex code in shell, php, JavaScript, html5, css). Productivity up to 10x for initial version. Enhancements, not clear yet.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #272 of 281: David Gans (tnf) Sun 14 Jan 24 10:03
permalink #272 of 281: David Gans (tnf) Sun 14 Jan 24 10:03
I just discovered that Audio Hijack Pro now has a transcription function. I used it the other day and found it pretty decent.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #273 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 15 Jan 24 00:52
permalink #273 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 15 Jan 24 00:52
Well, it's been quite a glum State of the World for us, but it was honest in its glumness, which contents me. In retrospect these becalmed, enshittified years will be seen as the Good Old Days of the twenty-first century, a touchingly archaic time when herds of grandpas and grandmas were still behaving as if they were in the Twentieth Century they once knew and understood. This, too, shall pass. As I myself experience more years, I become more aware that "every day is a gift." I take consolation in the understanding that, no matter how you confront the billions of pssing years, whenever you've had one pleasing day, that experience can't be taken from you; yes, it passed, but it was precious.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #274 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 15 Jan 24 00:52
permalink #274 of 281: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 15 Jan 24 00:52
It's like the poet Czeslaw Milosz wrote, when he escaped his rather crappy existence under Communist domination in the Warsaw Pact, and he married a comely Californian woman who had a nice garden. Eventually she died, and he went back to Poland as a widower, but for a while, there can be edenic paradise within the moment. GIFT by Czeslaw Milosz A day so happy. Fog lifted early, I worked in the garden. Hummingbirds were stopping over honeysuckle flowers. There was no thing on earth I wanted to possess. I knew no one worth my envying him. Whatever evil I had suffered, I forgot. To think that once I was the same man did not embarrass me. In my body I felt no pain. When straightening up, I saw the blue sea and sails.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2024
permalink #275 of 281: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Mon 15 Jan 24 06:42
permalink #275 of 281: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Mon 15 Jan 24 06:42
I never expect to find enlightenment in these annual conversations, but they do stimulate my thinking and (often) my feeling. This one, combined with a personal slight IRL, had the effect of throwing me into a deep funk. Friends stepped up to help me along, and that's the best you can hope for. Fake friends may wound you, but real friends show up with band-aids and neosporin. Today is the formal last day of this conversation, though members of the WELL can continue posting as they see fit. Bruce and I have been members of the WELL for 33 years. It's a for-real virtual community where members have come to know each other pretty well, and where there's always a few folks with band-aids when you need 'em. The community is aging, but a few younger people are showing up and plowing the fields with the rest of us. It's bitter cold right now in Austin, and I find myself thinking of homeless people who don't have a warm table like the one where I'm sitting right now. My best hope is that they have other people around who care whether they're cold, whether they're hungry, whether they're lost. I'm thinking about the Lord of the Rings this morning... we have our own Sauron, who rules Mordor, and is capturing our Middle-Earth with with his kind of magic - not by killing hobbits, but by getting into their hearts and minds with is whispery evil vibes. It's a magic called influence. I'm wondering, who has the ring? If you don't believe in Sauron, just look around you. His dark influence is everywhere these days.
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