Inkwell: Authors and Artists

    
Welcome to Inkwell's Election 2024 pop-up!

November 5 is Election Night in the United States. That day, and the
days and weeks that follow, are probably going to be intense,
complicated, and anxiety-provoking.

We have created this little corner of the online world to be a haven
of hosted discussion, led by some of the WELL's most media-savvy and
politically nerdy members.

No need to go it alone! Let's follow, analyze, agonize, and even
possibly celebrate the election together.
  

    
Our conversation lead is radio host supreme and WELL member Angie
Coiro.     

Angie’s voice and interview style have been staples for Bay Area
radio, TV, and podcast fans since the 1990s. Fifteen of those years
were at KQED as radio announcer, news anchor, host of Friday Forum,
and TV pledge drive host. She moved to the national airwaves with
Mother Jones Radio on Air America. She recently retired her
syndicated radio show In Deep when it reached its fifteenth
anniversary. Angie currently hosts Book It, a literary interview
show, on KALW San Francisco, and This Is Now, a live interview
series for Kepler’s Literary Foundation in Menlo Park. 
  

    

A few of our Election 2024 pop-up panelists:

Jennifer Powell: 

Jennifer spent most of her life as a community organizer. In the
1970s and 1980s she was involved in feminist organizations, food
coops and peace and justice movements. She then spent several years
working in environmental science, and became involved in electoral
politics. Jennifer has since retired to a quiet life of gardening
and BTS, and still follows current events avidly. 

Jon Lebkowsky:

Jon is a prominent figure in the realms of digital culture,
activism, and technology. He has been a writer, editor, publisher
and digital culture maven for decades, exploring the intersection of
technology, culture, and social activism. Along with co-hosting
Inkwell and scads of other endeavors, Jon is co-founder, with Skip
Sweeney, of Plutopia News Network, a freewheeling independent media
organization.

Emily J Gertz:

Emily (I) am a journalist with two decades experience on the
environmental beat covering politics, regulations, science, culture,
human rights and more for many different publications. Currently,
I'm a contributing editor at DeSmog, where we report on climate
disinformation, denial, culpability and accountability. During the
1980s I worked as an environmental activist. I am another Inkwell
co-host.
  

    

David Gans here. WELL member since 1985, voter since 1972, concerned citizen
since long before then.
  

    
Let's get this party (funeral?) started!

As I write this we're pushing toward Election Day Eve. Me, I've been
fighting feelings of doom, flashbacks to 2016, and the occasional
flutter of hope. 

I'll be asking the guest panel and all the Wellbeings *and* our
non-Well viewers to weigh in on this: how you're feeling as we go
into this, and why. 

Why do I feel as I do? Well, thank you for asking!

Doom: like I said - we were so hopeful going into 2016. The idea
that we could win the popular vote and lose on the electoral vote -
well, I don't pretend to know what everyone thought, but that sure
hadn't been anything but the most theoretical discussion that I had
come across.

I remember the horror of the next day. I do not want to relive that.
I'm afraid there's at least an even chance that we will. I base that
on the numbers in the tightest states; and my concern that the fear
of electing a 1.) Black 2.) woman will overcome more people than are
willing to admit it.

As for the glimmers of hope: the images of exhausted Trump rambling
near-incoherently at half-empty rallies is encouraging. The polls
are looking better (I know, I know - polls. I am not immune.). And
the growing buoyancy - well, it's hard to completely resist.
Kamala's energy is infectious - as with Obama, it's hard not to
believe while you're listening to her. And I'm surrounded by an
increasing number of hopeful people. 

My thoughts, and my reasons. Yours?
  

    
Axon here. Long time reader, first time Inkwell team member.

>hopeful people

I am among them. I'm a hope fiend, and Simon Rosenberg is my dealer.
I am confident that the polls are, to be charitable, unreliable, and
that every other fundamental metric of momentum presages a Harris
victory.

But I also know that as polls close across the nation, and results
are reported in fits and starts, that the lead will appear to shift
back and forth a few times over the course of the night, or well
into the next day, even. I know it's going to be fraught. I hope
(there's that word again) folks will exercise patience as the roller
coaster makes its weary way to a dispositive outcome. I expect there
will be surprises, but mostly encouraging ones.

While all eyes will be fixed on the POTUS race, there will also be
important Congressional and Senatorial races that will have
significant impact on the 119th Congress going forward, and the
effectiveness of the next president, whoever she might be. It will
be interesting to see how those races are affected by the coattails
of the presidential candidates, and the impact those contests will
have on overall turnout.

Finally, reproductive freedom is explicitly on the ballot in 11
states, and will surely exert influence on both sentiment and
participation, especially in those states, but nationwide as well. I
expect it will prove decisive.
  

    
For those who intend to stay up and track the results coming in tomorrow
there is a very good printable PDF worksheet that you can play along at
home and fill in - it uses tables and graphic to track many many of the
elections and issues such as federal elections of course but also many
other things such as governors, referendums (groups by issue such as
abortion, education, governance, etc.)

Print out a copy (15 pages) and use it tomorrow night:

https://boltsmag.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Whats-on-the-Ballot-elections-
tracker-20241101.pdf
  

    
Thanks for that link, matisse. I follow Bolts for all the downballot
races.

The election of Tr*mp in 2016 sent me into a shock state. When I got
up the next day it was as if the world looked different, uglier,
even more dangerous than I already knew it to be. It took a few
years and a lot of music to get myself back in a calmer state, and
even now I feel aftershocks at times.

I am hopeful that with this election we can take a big step forward
into a better world. Not a perfect world, I don't really believe in
that. But a good strong step into a future that holds the promise of
the pluralistic world I've spent my life working for.

So many people here on the Well are working their asses off to make
this happen. Now we shall see.
  

    
Yes, that's a great link, <matisse>; thanks.  Even if you're not
planned to be obsessed TUESDAY forward, it's worth looking at for
the highlights of the significant state races/initiative and local
efforts at recalls, etc.


I am nervous.  The 2020 election was *really* close.  What, you say,
Biden won the popular vote by **7 million votes**, and the electoral
college by 306 to Trump's 232.  But drill into that electoral
college, the voting in the key states that were close.

Less than 75,000 votes in a handful of key states - yeah, I would
say that was close.

-----------------------------------

Arizona - Biden wins by 11,000 votes 
Georgia - 12,000
Nevada -  30,000
Wisconsin - 20,000

That's 52 electoral votes right there.  That's the sort of thing
that worries me.  That margin would have given Trump his second
term.
  

    
Thank you for joining the Inkwell team, <axon>. We are thrilled to
have you!

On PBS Newshour last week, Eugene Robinson said something that has
stuck with me, along the lines of: Finally we're going to hear from
the voters about what they want this country to be. We won't be
wondering, anymore. 

Not "we're doomed," or "there's hope." Simply: The wait will be
over. 



Where I'm gleaning hope:

The new record for early voting turnout. It's no longer clear that
this is a total boon for the Democrats, but still seems more than
less likely to break in Harris' favor.

The teensy shift in the polls late last week towards Harris, which
could be a lagging indicator.

A similar edge that seems to have emerged in several key House
races.

How Harris/Walz has been, talking and acting like it's 2024. As much
as Democrats could take off the gloves and confront Republican bad
faith bullshit, and still be Democrats — they seem to have gotten
pretty close.


Doom:

I have no gut instinct on how a Trump supporter regards Trump's
public-facing deterioration. So, lately I've been reading and
listening to The Bulwark (which for those not familiar, is an
anti-National Review/Federalist conservative press stronghold of
never-Trump conservatives like Bill Kristol, George Conway and
Michael Steele). 

They don't seem to be kidding themselves about Trump's potential to
win the election.

Also, if Harris wins, no matter how convincingly she wins, Trump and
his acolytes will try to overturn it.
  

    
I learned a new word this morning on Facebook that describes how I feel:
"Shpilkes," meaning nervous energy, anxiousness, restlessness. Pins and
needles.

On Election Night 2016, I sat in front of my sister's iMac, reading aloud
the New York Times needle's forecast as it dropped from 90% Hillary Clinton
to the unthinkable. My sister has since passed away, but I'll be thinking of
her tomorrow night.
  

    <scribbled by magdalen Sat 9 Nov 24 15:25>
  

    
Uncertainty here, for sure. My mind is throwing sparks of assumption
which are momentarily bright, then fade - as do moments of fear and
hope. I can only wait and see. 

I'm avoiding thinking or telling fearful or hopeful stories. I do
know that Trump and his allies are scheming, but I also know that
other forces are seeing and anticipating their schemes. 

I also see that Trump is wearing down from the constant effort to
sustain his grift and project his faux rage. What will be left of
him, on the other side of the election? How will his movement
evolve, if its leader can no longer hold it together?

Whatever happens, we have serious work ahead of us. We can start
that work now.

I refuse to HATE. I refuse to reject my neighbors who fly the Trump
flag. I refuse to complain about polarization, then contribute to
it. Somehow we who are committed to an American future will have to
work together again, which means setting aside our fear of each
other and finding where we can agree and what we can accept.

There are some who will be ready to go to war internally, however
the election turns out. But a civil war will be a thoughtless
mindless destructive explosion of violence that accomplishes
nothing, and we can be better than that. 
  

    
This is SO shpilkes. Yiddish for the win.

Similarly, in 2016 Patrick and I were out at a local neo-Austrian
restaurant watching the coverage. It was a neighborhood institution
that we loved, and that hosted Election Night for years. 

As always, we were running the numbers as we watched the returns,
checking online coverage at the same time as watching the big TV
screen, and marking each state on a map as the totals became
conclusive.

Patrick was a much faster math brain than I am. Not too late into
the evening, he said, "She's lost. Let's go home." 

Patrick is gone. The restaurant is gone (not tragically - owner
moved to Europe a couple years ago). Trump is still here. The
universe just goes on, no matter what. All that played a big part
(for my part) in producing Inkwell pop-up, actually.
  

    
I firmly blieve that the motherfuckers who are propping Trump up right now
are doing so with an eye toward finishing him off as soon as he elected so
they can install that creep "Vance."
  

    
I have a similar belief, but even if they install Vance, he won't be
pulling the strings. I don't know who that would be - maybe some
combination of folks.
  

    
(do we have a short URL for this topic yet, so I can share it
around?)
  

    
Oh, thanks for that, jnfr! Awaiting the official response here ...

I can't remember the last time I heard "shpilkes". Decades, maybe.
Perfect word.

Meanwhile - spare a thought, a prayer, good thoughts, beams,
whatever, for the poor polling site workers. I knew of course that
there was some coordination for election deniers, but until I read
this from Wired I had no idea just how well-networked and thorough
it is in its message.
<https://www.wired.com/story/election-deniers-weekend-activity-fraud-claims/>.

>>For the past four years, even though evidence conclusively shows
that the 2020 election was not stolen. election officials have been
the ones who have been harassed and threatened. Thousands have quit
and election offices have been forced to take extreme measures to
protect their workers.

And leaders in the election denial movement are continuing to
promote ideas that are going to make the situation much worse. This
weekend, conservative activist James O’Keefe said that he was
sending out more than 1,000 cameras to election officials who have
signed up to covertly film the voting process.<<

It links to an example of how frustrating it can get, leading to
election workers quitting rather than deal with the ghouls:
<https://calmatters.org/politics/2024/11/shasta-county-election-workers/>.
  

    
Jon says - 

>>I also see that Trump is wearing down from the constant effort to
sustain his grift and project his faux rage. What will be left of
him, on the other side of the election? How will his movement
evolve, if its leader can no longer hold it together?<<

... I've wondered a lot over the years who the real leaders in the
refurbed GOP are. Periodically I've seen Trump as a puppet gone
rogue, and I'm not convinced it didn't all start just that way. If
that's the case - is the puppet now ruling the theater? Or are there
still puppet-masters using him until he's even more a worn and
babbling stump, ready to move more coherent and efficient people
into place? Surely they haven't every one of them capitulated to a
madman? Or, as David posits, is Vance the plant they needed and now
have ready?

So hard not to be a conspiracy nut these days.
  

    
> pulling the strings. I don't know who that would be

Musk, Thiel, Murdoch, Putin
  

    
Putin is key to all of them, I think.
  

    
And of course those are obvious candidates. Never post before
coffee. 

I meant within the GOP. There I find it harder to pick out anyone on
a par with those outsiders in terms of power and money to use him
without fear.
  

    
FTR the "never post before coffee" was aimed at myself, to say I
could have been clearer. Now, the aforementioned coffee ...
  

    
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ection-page01.html>.

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Feel free to share these links on social media or with anyone who
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This conversation will continue for at least two weeks, through
November 18. Thanks for being part of it!
  

    
>I meant within the GOP

I believe this is part of what is keeping Trump balanced at the top
of the heap - the vacuum within the GOP of viable leadership or
charisma.  It started with 2016 with the crabs-in-a-bucket mentality
that left only Trump left standing at the end as the one person no
one took seriously and so expended no effort in clawing him down.
  

    
Another aspect of this is control of spending by the Republican
National Committee, of which Lara Trump is co-chair.