Inkwell: Authors and Artists

    
Trump bullied other Republicans into submission and a lot of them
decided they liked it.
  

    
I am cautiously optimistic. 

I'm a long-time denizen of the WELL (joined in 1986 just past this
season) and a long-time voter. I was so upset by the Nixon
re-election that I sent him an aerogram from Israel. I couldn't
think of what to say, so it was a simple,

     Dear Mr. Nixon,

     FUCK YOU

     Sincerely Yours....

That got me investigated by the FBI, which was quite interesting.

In 2004, I remember driving back to New England from Pennsylvania,
where a week of door-to-door gotv activity initially seemed to have
been worth it- Pennsylvania did go for Kerry. Alas, enough of the
rest of the country did not. I thoroughly blew a job interview the
next morning in Rhode Island. Between lack of sleep, disappointment,
and the impossibility of shifting gears from gotv, I was hopeless. 

In 2008, spouse and I watched from a conference room in the library
at Brandeis University. That was such a grand pleasure, and not just
the location.

In 2016, however, after a day of gotv in NH (again, NH went for my
candidate, just not enough of the rest of the country), I went to
bed by 11pm, thoroughly bummed out and not yet appreciating just how
bad the former guy would be.

This year, I am hoping for 2008 and 2020. I feel I have reason to be
cautiously optimistic, but who the fuck knows. I also have reason to
be very scared. And, mostly, I suspect we won't have anything like a
sure sense of where things will be for quite some time. That, too,
is scary - I haven't forgotten how Bush managed to get the Supremes
to help him steal the election in 2000.
  

    <scribbled by magdalen Sat 9 Nov 24 15:25>
  

    
> it's common here. i prefer the
old-school flag. red, white, and blue. 

As a guy born in Washington, DC on Flag Day, I heartily endorse your
preference. 
  

    
We fly the earth flag. When a nosy neighbor asked why, I told him
"because I'm an earthling. What planet do you come from?" He's kept
his distance since.
  

    
<https://people.well.com/user/ronks/toons/tunnelOfNext.jpg>
  

    
I think two things (at least) are very important for tomorrow. The
first, of course, is the Dobbs decision and how that has mobilized
women ever since the ruling. This has been consistently
underappreciated but tomorrow I think it's going to be decisive,
especially the anger from older women who have fought for these
rights their whole life and are furious about the loss (like me!).

We've seen this is the recent Iowa poll that surprised so many, and
I suspect we'll see it everywhere tomorrow. Adult women tend to be
very reliable voters.

The second is the recent ugly and racist attack on Puerto Rico by
the Tr*mp campaign, which seems to have shifted a significant
portion of Latino voters from undecided to Harris, and even shifted
some away from Tr*mp.

We'll see tomorrow if that's right, but I believe it is. 
  

    
There are those things, and then there is the thing of the "grab
them by the pussy" tape circulating on TikTok and possibly
mobilizing younger voters (in addition to making them ask their
parents how they can/could vote for that guy).

I'm taking heart from hearing Heather Cox Richardson say that, when
America turns, it turns fast. We need a reset badly. 
  

    
Yes, that's another aspect that I'm not sure is being taken into
account: a younger demographic.  The stuff laughed off as just
"locker-room talk", "just a joke" doesn't sit well with them.  
And that elaborate minefield that Trump laid for Biden about being
old and doddering .. well, he is doddering in the middle of it now
himself.

Countering these is the four years of voter suppression efforts,
removal of broader voting options introduced during the pandemic, a
hardening of the political polarization, growing mistrust of
authorities, and still an embrace of the Big Lie and conspiracies.
  

    
What gives me hope is how viscerally Trump has refused to expand his
base, and how corrupt the management of his gotv effort has been.
That, and the joy that comes out of Harris's events.

But, I was so wrong in 2016.
  

    
And yet, Trump seems so spent since Kamala entered the race. So,
maybe.
  

    
Hi, I'm Lisa. I've only been here since the Kerry loss sent me
looking for intelligent life outside of Palm Beach County, FL. Even
though it's been almost 20 years, I still feel like a newbie. 

I feel a Harris win in the air. 

I don't think it will be close, either. I'm willing to be publicly
wrong about that. But I think she wins in a big enough way to shut
his shit down. 
  

    
I keep telling myself that we won in 2008, 2012, popular vote in 2016, won
in 2020 ...and that was without major republican leaders calling for other
Repubs to vote for our candidate this time. so, hopeful.
  

    
I believe that since 2000, the Democrats have won the popular vote
for all but one presidential election: GWB's second term. 
  

    
One of the observers I'll be following closely is Tom Bonier. He
offers this boilerplate advice as we head into election day:

>>My election eve reminder - during election day and in the first
couple of hours after polls close, the ratio between the appetite
for data that tells us how things are going to the predictive value
of that data is just massive.

Exit polls don't gauge turnout, like pre-election polls they are
based on an estimate/predicton of turnout. In the weeks after the
election they will reweight them to actual turnout. So don't, do
not, use early exit polls as such.<<
  

    
Link: https://x.com/tbonier/status/1853565557213216870
  

    
Hoping the younger cohort makes a real difference - me, too. I've
watched a couple videos of young women reacting to "grab them by the
pussy", and it's revelatory. They're just not tolerating that shit.

The optimism coming from some of the 'beings here is encouraging. I
can feel only the most cautious of optimism in me. 

Let's talk about The Great Divide.

Do you have families, friends, or colleagues who support Donald
Trump? Have you made efforts to converse? If so, how did those turn
out? If not - what thoughts led you to not bother trying?

One person in my circle had a change of heart literally in the act
of filling out their ballot. Strictly interested in the economy -
above all other considerations, which is its own troublesome
territory to me - they were going to leave the presidential space on
the ballot blank. Thinks Kamala will be actively awful for the
middle- and upper-middle class, primarily in terms of taxes. But
couldn't vote for Trump at all, no way.

At the last minute voted for KH - because, they said, if Trump won
they couldn't live with themselves.

In terms of the questions I posed: it took all I had to keep my
mouth shut while this friend worked it out for themselves. I had my
say and that was that. Were they more vehement, though, I'm not sure
how well I would have handled it. To my great good luck, there are
no Trump supporters (or third-party supporters) in my immediate
circle.
  

    
Worth noting for our visitors: in large, the populace of the Well
has at best no time for Trump, and at worst great anger and fear
against him. That doesn't mean you need to feel the same way. I'm
just acknowledging that's the prevailing view here, and in my own
case. That's why I'm comfortable phrasing the above the way I did.

That said, your civil and reasoned point of view is more than
welcome here, even if you disagree. Send us your email and we'll
post and discuss your comments. Or join the Well! As jonl noted:

>>While non-members cannot post directly, we welcome your comments
and
questions. You can email them to inkwell (at) well.com, and we'll
post them here on your behalf.

If you'd like to participate in more discussions like this, consider
joining the WELL: <https://www.well.com/join/>.<<
  

    
Angie I LOVE the story of your friend seeing the light at the moment
of marking their ballot.

As for polls - after 2016, I don't trust any of them. Which has made
this all the harder. I'm reading Bonier, too, since Heather Cox
Richardson says she trusts him. I wish he'd say Kamala will win.
  

    
JFTR, I don't think there's anybody pulling Trump's strings, or any
plans to replace him at any point should he win.

I think Putin is definitely behind efforts to promote fascism
wherever he can, but I'm afraid our fascism is mostly homegrown,
with long roots throughout our history. Many of Trump's closest
associates are veteran operatives of McCarthy, Nixon, and other
quasi-fascist figures and activities. 

And I don't think Trump can be replaced. He's the creator and leader
of a cult of personality. He's the center of the universe. Usually,
the first-born son takes over from such a figure only upon death,
but I don't know if that'll be the case with Jr. 

The questions that most concern me is how did we ever get into this
situation, and how do we get out of it?
  

    <scribbled by lperson Wed 6 Nov 24 10:16>
  

    
Something I heard on POTUS yesterday, I think Julie Mason's
(excellent) show, as that Harris has raised $1.3 billion, and a third
of that is from people who were donating to a campaign for their first
time.

So, that's at least $300 mil from people who have never donated to a
campaign.
  

    
For all intents and purposes this is an election between Harris and
Vance. Trump may not survive to take office. If he is sworn in, he
has become mentally incapable of doing the job. So he will be eased
out early on. 

Now I say that as somebody who did not think the world would end in
2017. And it didn’t. I think the worst President in my lifetime was
George W Bush. I expected Trump to keep us out of war and he did. 

Plus his tax cut was I think a good thing and is largely responsible
for our amazingly good economy under Biden. No chance it will be
repealed. Yet matter what Trump may say there is no appetite for
further tax cuts of any significance. 
  

    
Listening to Harris tonight in Pittsburgh and now ending in Philly,
and the crowds are committed and loud and she is excellent.
  

    
I'll tell ya, no matter how hopeful you are or aren't, the
differences in their rallies can't be argued.

And we haven't seen her fellate a microphone, not even once. Just
like Donny says, she's a c-word: classy.