Inkwell: Authors and Artists

    
Welcome to the 2026 State of the World conversation, our 26th annual​
exploration of the chaos and complexity of the rapidly-spinning,​
always-evolving planet Earth and the odd bipedal and quadrupedal​
creatures variously crouching and wandering on its surface. We are​
observers of this world, sharing our observations here with no claim​
of extraordinary expertise. We do hope that you'll be stimulated by​
our observations, or that you will, at least, find them​
entertaining. And we invite you to contribute either by posting​
directly on the WELL, if you're a member of this online community,​
or via email to inkwell (at) well.com, if you're not a member.

It's a chaotic time, but we'll try not to be chaotic.
  

    
Your co-hosts and lead commentators are author/journalist/design​
maven Bruce Sterling and yours truly, Jon Lebkowsky, digital culture​
maven and aging dharma punk. This is our 26th annual State of the​
World discussion. We tend to be more micro than macro in these​
discussions, which makes sense given that the actual state of the​
world is slippery, fluid, hard to assess reliably.
  

    
We've been doing this State of the World routine for so long that I​
think we might as well just make "the claim of extraordinary​
expertise."  What are we trying to hide at this point?  If you're​
here again, then you know.

Commonly, in these State of World discussions, I like to offer some​
provocative and far-out stuff, because the state of the world is​
commonly boring and normal.  I probably won't be doing much that for​
02026 because the general tenor of discussion worldwide is so​
chaotic and near-dementia.   It's not that world events themselves​
are all that violent or nasty historically-speaking, but that a lot​
of what is said about events is not even human in origin. It's​
algorithmically distributed  instead of reflecting any human​
benefits and interests.  
  

    
Contemporary political, financial, even military language has a lot​
of language-model rhythms in it.  It generates tangled chains of​
catchwords without the consequences of their meaning anything.

It's not that every human being has magically turned into an AI,​
more like AI-slop is setting the pace for human discussion.  You get​
this algorithmically-assisted churn fodder that's extreme and​
anodyne at the same time, sometimes fantastically erudite but also​
treadmill-like, forgotten by Tuesday, a new kind of dessicated​
bullshit that can't even bother to lie. 
  

    
I don't want to "debunk" stuff or "fact-check" stuff, because I​
think that activity's part of the general problem, but this year I'm​
feeling a new and different sensibility.  Obviously the trend-lines​
are horrific in many ways, and there are battlefields and explosive​
gray-zones that are frankly grisly, and yet for me personally the​
year 2025 was one of the calmest and quietest years I've ever​
experienced.   Next-to-nothing  is going as I would prefer it, and I​
probably ought to be coming out of my skin with anxiety, but I was​
also in a state of near-serenity, quite a lot of the time.  It felt​
like being the Cheshire Cat in a world ruthlessly pseudo-dominated​
by a screechy and senile Red Queen.  
  

    
Once again I'm logging in from Ibiza.  I wouldn't say I've gone​
native, but I've been here long enough to get it.  This is not a​
fierce, grind-it-out, Silicon Valley society; even Austin Texas,​
that wellspring of slackerdom, has a harsher work-ethic.   This​
little Mediterranean island with some genuine Lotus-eater aspects to​
it -- the island of the Lotus Eaters was supposed to be Djerba over​
in Tunisia.

According to the Odyssey, you sail  there, you partake of the Lotus,​
you go kinda blotto and everything's groovy.  You're not supposed to​
succumb to  this sweet and easy life, of course.  Captain Odysseus​
makes everybody get back on the boat and recommence rowing for​
Ithaca.   A few hundred Greek verses later, every blue-collar guy is​
dead and only Captain Odysseus is left to manage his narrative.
  

    
Maybe Lotus-land deserves some general re-assessment.  I admit that​
I'm laid-back, indolent and not doing much here in Ibiza, but I'm​
getting more accomplished  than anybody in the US Congress.  Those​
guys are Lotus-land 10X.  They've got great health-coverage and​
limos and such, but if you consider yourself an ambitious,​
fully-briefed, take charge kind of guy and you're also in the US​
Congress, you're a decorative lotus-plant in 02026. 

You could mount a podium and declare your sentiments  about the​
State of the World, and nobody anywhere would grant you even  a​
shred of credibility.  Your own kids would scoff and return to their​
TikTok feed.
  

    
While Bruce is hanging out in Ibiza, I'm still in Austin, pondering​
the Texas weather, which is famously fickle but increasingly hotter.​


But it's not just Texas that's getting hotter. The state of the​
world in 2026 is feverish: global temperatures continue to rise;​
2025 was among the hottest years on record. The world is close to​
excceding the 1.5 °C threshold set by the Paris Agreement within​
the next decade if not sooner. Greenhouse gas concentrations and​
ocean heat content are at or near historic highs, driving stronger​
extreme weather, sea-level rise, melting ice, and stressed​
ecosystems. Currently the Trump administration in the USA dismisses​
renewable energy sources, instead boosting fossil fuels, and​
weakening or eliminating emission controls. Climate science warns​
that, without deeper sustained cuts to emissions and broader​
implementation of mitigation strategies, targets of the Paris​
framework are slipping out of reach. It's like the house is burning​
down around us as we sit on the couch watching episodes of "Stranger​
Things" and munching popcorn, as though everything was status quo.​
Elon Musk, of all people, has a relevant quote: "We are running the​
most dangerous experiment in history right now, which is to see how​
much carbon dioxide the atmosphere can handle before there is an​
environmental catastrophe."
  

    
Meanwhile Donald Trump told the United Nations "this 'climate​
change,' it's the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in​
my opinion. All of these predictions made by the United Nations and​
many others, often for bad reasons, were wrong. They were made by​
stupid people that have cost their countries fortunes and given​
those same countries no chance for success. If you don't get away​
from this green scam, your country is going to fail."
  

    
I thought I was "retiring" into a Lotus-land, but I'm busily doing​
rather a lot of stuff.  For a guy of my advanced years, I'm quite​
curious, inventive and active, only none of it has anything to do​
with wealth or fame. I don't make money from it and I don't demand​
attention for it.

It took me a while to realize that this is a general and traditional​
Ibizan cultural problem: "I'm a drop-out European hippie on a small​
rural island, only somehow-or-other, I want to be very elegant,​
put-together and philosophical Walter-Benjamin about that."  That's​
engrossing, but it's not consequential.  On a bohemian island you're​
quite literally "isolated."  They don't come-and-get-you, which is​
good,  but you're also out-of-sight, out-of-mind, which can get​
rather Robinson-Crusoe.

It's a Ibizan sensibility similar to the Austin "golden rut," or​
what Austinites have consistently referred to as their​
good-old-days.  High quality of life -- eventually, you leave.
  

    

When I first visited this island it was much more frenetic than it​
is now.  In an era of deglobalization and hostility to immigrants,​
Ibiza clearly wants to knock it off with its long career as a​
sex-and-drugs disco and become a gerontocratic yachts-and-mansions​
European suburb.  I'm not sure this Monaco-style business model will​
work for them, because rich people, or at least their wives and​
children, get very bored in exclusive gated-community compounds.  ​
Ibizan new-arrivals on their rich-guy yachts are by no means natural​
seafarers.  They get especially bored.  You can see them step off​
the gilded gangplank onto dry land with a look almost of​
desperation, as if they'd emerged from submarines.

"Where's the action?!"  It'll take some nerve to tell them that​
there isn't any, that you're tired of providing it.
  

    

I'm not sure what it is I'm personally trying to achieve here in​
these local circumstances, but I have some ideans, and  Stewart​
Brand's new book about "Maintenance" was a cheerful thing to read. ​
I blurbed it.  It strikes me that our State of the World conclave,​
after 26 years of it, is "maintenance."  "Maintaining" old  and​
cherished things is not the same as being conservative about them,​
or being reactionary or backward-looking.   It's more about kicking​
the tires and checking the oil; warming up the motor before the​
year's strange trip.

Also "maintenance" is all about a frank awareness of very genuine,​
pervasive, entropy, failure and decay, which is an honest thing to​
acknowledge and confront when you're over 70.
  

    

It couldn't be the WELL State of the World without some tech​
forecasting, but in 02026,  I don't believe anything said by​
Washington or Silicon Valley.   Not an LLM word of it, not a​
generated jpeg.   So this year I plan to get around to discussing​
some *Chinese* tech forecasting.  I don't believe that stuff either,​
but I was impressed by how much the Chinese themselves seemed to​
believe their own forecasting.  So some tall Chinese weeds will be​
in order in the discussion this year.
  

    
I am struck by the growing "serfication" of the world. Hundreds of​
thousands (millions?) of displaced Palestinians waiting on their​
Lords to provide relief, or at least a path forward. The vanishing​
American middle class, shrinking further because their healthcare​
(and other government services) are sacrificed for more tax breaks​
for the truly wealthy. The lack of pretence that the poor of​
Venezuela matter as Trump arranges for cronies to tap into​
Venezuelan oil, bypassing the people (already bypassed by​
Maduro)....

Then there is the regularly schedule destruction in Sudan, the​
ongoing war in Ukraine, etc 

I'd like to think that the Mamdani's of the world will find their​
voices, and success. I feel uncomfortably skeptical that many people​
are thinking of change, as opposed to slowing the pace of​
Enshittification. And I watch NYC, and the huge, "he's a monster​
anti-Semite" slur distract from anything else.

Not feeling optimistic this morning, even though, for me personally,​
life is relatively peachy.
  

    
The State of the World conversation is publicly accessible, meaning​
anyone can read it, whether or not they are a member of the WELL,​
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th-Bru-page01.html>.

Both links will take you to the first page of the public​
conversation. If you are not a WELL member, we encourage you to​
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Use the pager (dropdown menus at the top and bottom of the page) to​
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Feel free to share these links on social media or with anyone who​
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While non-members cannot post directly, we welcome your comments and​
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If you’d like to participate in more discussions like this,​
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This conversation will continue for at least two weeks, through​
January 19. Thanks for being part of it!
  

    
wrt #10, bruce, is the monaco-ization of ibiza being driven by too​
many white yachts in the world and not enough ports of call? those​
traditionally seeking out ibiza for fun and games ---- have aged​
out? can no longer afford?

just curious...
  

    
Ibiza is an indicator as regards Europe so it depends on where you​
think Europe is at.  They're aging more rapidly than, for example,​
the US (that's largely due to US immigration which Trump hasn't yet​
been able to completely roll back) and Europe's economic model is,​
now, in many ways broken.  That's largely a question of Germany​
since I regard, for example, Poland as a low-wage back office to​
Germany.

So the Germans aren't getting cheap energy any longer from Russia​
but, also, the Chinese now compete with them, at lower prices,​
across pretty much all industrial categories.  The Germans seem to​
have thought that they'd always outdistance the Chinese.  That isn't​
what happened.  Europe's not in a good place and I'd expect that​
reflected across the board including in Ibiza.

Oh yes, then there's this business about Trump, Greenland, NATO and​
so on.  Multi-crisis, right?

Maybe these aren't unusual times.  Maybe most of history has been​
characterized by more violence, more war, and more economic​
inequality.  So this would be reversion to the mean.

There are though at least two new things: 8+ billion people in the​
world and the climate is unravelling.  Interesting to watch the​
(large) threads of the climate getting blown in every possible​
direction.  Who knew that the poles would heat up more first?  One​
thing I wonder is if all the political disarray is being superheated​
by an subconscious presentiment of impending disaster.  Or at least​
the fear of such.
  

    
Thanks for returning and maintaining *this*, Bruce & Jon.

I’m thinking about the young/old divide as it relates to and​
shapes politics and culture. Two examples or touchstones. 

Tim Burke speculated a couple of months ago about reasons for the​
relative paucity of young folks at No Kings protests, for example.​
One of several explanations he noted was something like “MAGA is​
their frame of reference for politics now.” One was, basically,​
fatalism about politics. One was along the lines of they are working​
on their own political solutions but they aren’t telling you about​
them because they don’t trust the olds. He had ten or a dozen​
possibilities, but they all had to do with there being fundamental​
differences between young and old views of … things.

And then, I’m reading *Apple in China: The Capture of the​
World’s Greatest Company* by Patrick McGee just now. It mentions​
how the guy tasked with opening the first Apple Store in Beijing was​
struck by a sharp generational divide as he interviewed job​
candidates. 

“Those born after 1980 were the first Chinese cohort after Mao’s​
death. They grew up in the ‘reform and opening up’ era . . . .​
They embraced once-forbidden ideas . . . . Anyone aged thirty-five​
and above … Don’t question, don’t ask, just do as you’re​
told.”

It seems there’s a divide like that among younger and older folks​
today in the U.S. and in other places, too, but with the young at​
once more open to doing things differently and at the same time more​
cynical.

Not sure that characterizes it quite adequately, but I bet you two​
have reflected on this and have good thoughts to share. 
  

    <scribbled by jonl Tue 6 Jan 26 13:09>
  

    
> Multi-crisis

The term I've been hearing is polycrisis - there's even a website​
devoted to the concept, <https://polycrisis.org/>, set up by the​
Canadian Cascade Institute (https://cascadeinstitute.org/about/),​;
which focuses on "anticipating pernicious cascades" and "triggering​
virtuous cascades." I think polycrisis is just the right buzzword​
for 2026, and we should all be thinking about what it means to have​
multiple complex chaotic crises colliding and no truly effective​
leaders to sort 'em out.
  

    
Yes, you're right - polycrisis.  I thought the origin was historian​
Adam Tooze but when I look it up what I'm told is Edgar Morin in​
France in the 1990's.

"[problems] intensify one another, creating outcomes that cannot be​
understood or managed in isolation."

Nevertheless, we largely work by reduction.  Scientists and​
engineers only?  No I think politicians operate in that fashion as​
well.  Except the very best politicians however there don't seem​
many of those on the ground at the moment.  Still though, Napoleon​
did say things to the effect of: men are nothing; circumstances are​
everything.
  

    
@Loris:  wrt #10, bruce, is the monaco-ization of ibiza being driven​
by too many white yachts in the world and not enough ports of call?​
those traditionally seeking out ibiza for fun and games ---- have​
aged out? can no longer afford?

just curious...

*It seems to me that a lot of cosmopolitan tourist centers --​
Barcelona, Berlin, Venice worst of all -- they feel trampled​
underfoot now.  They didn't used to mind the "overtourism" of​
mass-globalization and cheap jet-travel, but the social mood changed​
and now they're abidingly upset about it.
  

    
Ibizans don't actually *like*  the oligarchs on yachts, but the rich​
do drop a lot of money in a short time, and they're not physically​
around much.  The rich tend to buy-up the landscape, which is​
annoying, but since the rich have other villas elsewhere, a lot of​
the time there's nobody there.  More "don't trespass" signs, but the​
landscape looks roomier.

Ibizans actually have a positive birth-rate.  They're one of the few​
islands in Spain with more newborn people than dying people.  Events​
are  somnolent at the moment, but nobody thinks the calm will last. ​
Ibizans seem to have an intuition that the presence of the rich​
might somehow protect them in future.  That when disaster strikes,​
their reputation as a pretty holiday rich-spot means that they won't​
be abandoned to the tender mercies of  pirates, storms and plagues. ​
They'll get rebuilt. Somehow.
  

    

Watching the Canary Islands get blasted by volcanoes was edifying if​
you live in Ibiza.  That was an interesting disaster because nobody​
was trying to spin it or derive any power-benefit from it; it wasn't​
denied or polarized, it was just a  big natural disaster.  The​
Canary Islands are literal volcanoes.  You can't have the Canary​
Islands without  the volcanoes.  The volcanoes ferociously burned​
and blasted a lot of one island -- and  it also made the island​
bigger.  There was some mild-power struggles when Canary Islanders​
were trying to figure out who owned the new volcanic real estate.  I​
wouldn't say that they are "resilient," but a truly dramatic and​
dreadful event happened there, and they forgot about it.   Till next​
time.


A Gulf-of-Mexico hurricane struck Ibiza last year;  "Gabrielle"​
crossed Spain and whacked the island.  I went to inspect the​
supposed mayhem.  A typical Greenhouse rain-bomb, a lot of garbage​
washed around; it looked like the aftermath of Woodstock.  They​
picked up the debris and forgot about it.  The yachts were back in​
two days.
  

    

In Ibiza I'm keenly aware that I'm part of the general problem. ​
Global-nomad, laptop-typing guy, obviously I don't deserve any seat​
at their paella-pan.   Neither does most anybody else here, though. ​
They were overwhelmed by hippie migrants two long generations ago;​
it's like trying to rescue the authentic aboriginals at the Anaheim​
Disneyland.  

Anti-tourist sentiment in Ibiza is mostly about former tourists not​
liking new tourists.   Nobody, including tourists, "likes tourists"​
now.  It used to be that tourists were sometimes considered kind of​
sexy --  free-spending and fun, exotic people, half-dressed people​
who you might want to pick up at a bar, or hospitably help-out in​
some way.  In a world of eight billion, there's something about mass​
tourism that grates the nerves.  "Crimea, the clean, sunlit tourist​
beaches of the Soviet Union!  C'mon down, everybody, enjoy!"
  

    

I caught Covid in Ibiza and survived it.  Twice, actually.  I'd have​
to say that my attitude toward my own remaining lifespan has been​
quite a lot more fluffy and lemon-meringue, after that.   The​
committed struggle to grind and bake one's daily bread, well, this​
is the tiramisu course, for me personally.   Ethically, I shouldn't​
scoff callously at other people' anxieties, sufferings, and​
dwindling prospects, but my own feel less bothersome to me.  Likely​
I should not have lived this long, but people in Ibiza commonly​
reach their nineties.  Maybe because they fret less than they might.​
They make no grand visible effort to live a long time, they just​
persist.

I benefit from their graciousness and  relaxed attitude, although I​
don't much belong here.  I've also come to understand that I've​
picked up some of their deeper cultural problems.  "Challenges," you​
might call them, not "problems."  It's sounds cheerier to call them​
"challenges," there might be funding involved.  Sticky-eyeballs. ​
Tourist-bait.