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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #126 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 09:40
permalink #126 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 09:40
Hey John, that's the issue isn't it: antropocene or holocene...its all obscene
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #127 of 221: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Wed 10 Jan 18 09:44
permalink #127 of 221: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Wed 10 Jan 18 09:44
Somehow the one thing that all these topics seem to share is a failure or misalignment of feedback mechanisms. The Google program learning chess in four days, and the "middletarian" idea, remind me of a snippet of a radio show I heard recently where someone was trying to explain where the 'intelligence' of an ant colony resides. The answer was that it isn't anywhere - it's just an emergent property of all the ants blundering about. They are in possession of a communication mechanism (dropping pheromone trails), and over time, they don't become less blunderous as individuals, it's just that the cumulative feedback creates patterns and emergent properties.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #128 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 09:47
permalink #128 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 09:47
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karankawa_people https://books.google.com/books?id=BmEMbNMfB2MC&pg=PA3&lpg=PA3&dq=karankawa+and +mother+earth&source=bl&ots=H2H3mTaCfx&sig=PkVAisadKGFUn2CVMtzGE-QwMfg&hl=en&s a=X&ved=0ahUKEwiU7cXf-M3YAhWJGZQKHRUACXAQ6AEIaTAO#v=onepage&q=karankawa%20and% 20mother%20earth&f=false "..it happens because person after person witnesses and bears witness to the crimes of the State against people, against the Earth, against all it oppresses. But there must be those who will bear this witness, who will speak out, and who will give others courage to speak out in their wake." Such as just witnessed at the Golden Globes!!! And, we have not talked about 2018 in regards to women coming to power in America....yeehah!
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #129 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 10 Jan 18 09:55
permalink #129 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 10 Jan 18 09:55
The Twitterati have been complaining that there was too much hype in 2017 about certain techno topics. 1. Bots meaning conversational systems. 2. AI or deep learning and 3. Way too much about crypto coinage. Meaning that these were the big tech fads of last year. Odd that nobody complains that robots are faddish and over-hyped, even though robots have been radically over-hyped since 1921. Jeff Bezos is buying and deploying more and commercial robots to sort and move his Amazon cargo, but you dont see that many, every day, real-deal, non-fad, non-hyped robots, walking about in the street in 2018. The robots on YouTube get a lot of viral traction, but theyre expensive one-offs from the lab. Robot battles on TV are pretty popular, but theyre basically destruction-derby for nerds. Its like robots are simply too old to be fads. Robots possess a get-out-of-hype-jail free card. People dont scoff at robots and their prospects. Theyre respectful of them; afraid of them, even. Ive been writing about the prospects of robots in for decades, and I guess I ought to be more cynical, but for 2018, even I am kind of bullish on tomorrows robot business. In Europe Industry 4.0 is getting traction, and its mostly about new platforms and protocols for automating production. Its the Internet of Things as re-imagined by German heavy industry. If you describe robots, not as a smart metal man who can walk and talk about Asimovs ethics up on stage, but as actuated, moving mechanisms programmable in two or more axes with a degree of autonomy, then, well, theres something to that. Industrial robots are getting more accurate, more capable, more durable, cheaper. Im a devotee of commercial, consumer robot vacuum cleaners. As a guy troubled with hay fever, my Roombas ability to sweep up particulates that I cant see is a genuine asset to my life. Its even worth the considerable trouble of cleaning and maintaining the Roomba, which is often a dirtier and more troublesome task than simply vacuuming the room yourself. So I expect to have at least one real-world, non-hyped, everyday robot around for the foreseeable future. I wonder what the second will be.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #130 of 221: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Wed 10 Jan 18 10:47
permalink #130 of 221: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Wed 10 Jan 18 10:47
I guess the overuse of the term "big data" was a complaint a few years ago. The problems that prompted that overuse haven't gone away, and AI-based approaches are making them worse. There were warnings in the margins of the Whole Earth Catalog that "The map is not the territory!" The art of data analysis is in choosing items that are available from a data store - a Web user's click stream, a voter registration database, a credit card's transaction log - and using those data as proxies for a person's intent and desires. This mapping from data to thought is imperfect at best. Too often people use the map as if it were the territory, with bad results that Cathy O'Neil illustrated with war stories in her book "Weapons of Math Destruction". This only gets worse with AI-based data analysis, because the mappings become more complicated and the logic through which they are derived is opaque, hidden within the AI agent. If the proxies aren't understandable and verifiable by human analysts, we're wrong to trust the mappings they represent.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #131 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 10 Jan 18 10:54
permalink #131 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 10 Jan 18 10:54
*Speaking of the imaginary "FemmeCoin," turns out there's a crypto-coinage "Women Coin" that has existed since summer of 2017. Doesn't seem to be particularly feminist in its orientation, it's just for women who want to get in on the racket. https://bitcoingarden.org/forum/index.php?topic=16213.msg168495 *I'm always happy when I've "predicted" something that already exists. Nobody can know everything, but when it turns out that the future is already here and just wasn't distributed where you yourself could see it, that means that your mode of analysis is good. "This may seem a tad sci-fi, far-fetched, and mind-stretchy, but... hey look, it's already there. Swell!"
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #132 of 221: Paulina Borsook (loris) Wed 10 Jan 18 11:03
permalink #132 of 221: Paulina Borsook (loris) Wed 10 Jan 18 11:03
my surrogate little bro is behind this 'white allies toolkit', an empathetic/nonviolent communucation/active listening modality for dealing with race https://www.whiteallytoolkit.com/philosophy/ seems to be getting some traction
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #133 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 10 Jan 18 11:26
permalink #133 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 10 Jan 18 11:26
http://fortune.com/2018/01/09/2017-fires-hurricanes-natural-disasters-cost/ The USA suffered $306 billion in weather damage in 2017. Luckily the USA doesn't border on Greenland, so if glaciers are melting, the readers of FORTUNE magazine won't have to pick up any tab for that. Huge mudslides in California this week, so the bill for 2018 must be off to a galloping start.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #134 of 221: Paulina Borsook (loris) Wed 10 Jan 18 11:32
permalink #134 of 221: Paulina Borsook (loris) Wed 10 Jan 18 11:32
and oh, wrt #132, shorthand for 'race, what a mess, here's someone doing something a little bit novel about it' i do so miss the viridian mailing list when climate disaster moments like santa barbara (the fires, the floods, the mudslides) happen
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #135 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 10 Jan 18 12:04
permalink #135 of 221: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Wed 10 Jan 18 12:04
*Here's some Women Coin pics. Apparently it's entirely possible to buy some Women Coins right now and put them in your crypto "purse." https://ello.co/bruces/post/qoxbqgetwzklde6ojjxtqa
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #136 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 12:24
permalink #136 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 12:24
Not doing so hot against US dollar...but, it's early days
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #137 of 221: Harry Henderson (hrh) Wed 10 Jan 18 14:15
permalink #137 of 221: Harry Henderson (hrh) Wed 10 Jan 18 14:15
With regard to AI, I think we're still trapped by the image of AI as being some kind of ego like our own, only massively more intelligent. (After all, this is ingrained in us ... the other word for this is "God"). So with this image, we talk about somehow controlling or at least placating "God." However the much more likely scenario is that artificial cognition (not necessarily "consciousness") will be distributed and pervasive, and that it's already "out of control." The question then isn't whether we can control "AI" but what kind of intelligence will emerge and what part our own particular human kind of consciousness might continue to play in it.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #138 of 221: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Wed 10 Jan 18 14:53
permalink #138 of 221: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Wed 10 Jan 18 14:53
I agree with that, which is why hearing about the blundering ants struck me as relevant. And if you're looking for distributed and pervasive cognition, not "intelligence," why even limit your search to machines?
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #139 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 15:32
permalink #139 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 15:32
<The question then isn't whether we can control "AI" but what kind of intelligence will emerge and what part our own particular human kind of consciousness might continue to play in it. Yup...there are at least two strands to that from the human point of view....our own co-evolution as well as how we chose to "use" AI as a tool and how we choose to integrate with it. And then there is the 'conscious development' of AI itself...whatever that turns out to be.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #140 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 15:34
permalink #140 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 15:34
David, great point, do you have some suggestions or examples?
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #141 of 221: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Wed 10 Jan 18 15:44
permalink #141 of 221: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Wed 10 Jan 18 15:44
Well it's such a broad net that it goes way off into other areas, but I was thinking how a business operates, a corporation, an economy...
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #142 of 221: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Wed 10 Jan 18 15:57
permalink #142 of 221: Rip Van Winkle (keta) Wed 10 Jan 18 15:57
Or entirely out of the realm of machines or artificial anything, the body's immune system. In politics, once the Access Hollywood tape was out, and then Trump won, you couldn't precisely predict the women's march and pussy hats, but it was clear that the whole thing had provoked a distributed response. As events over the year have proceeded, it's looked as much to me like an immune response as anything else. The depleted toxic strain (sad!) was introduced to the system, and once the antibodies recognized it, they started responding to multiple infections everywhere. Does the Body Politic really need a leader or intelligence to functionally cognate and act?
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #143 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 17:27
permalink #143 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Wed 10 Jan 18 17:27
Kewl...a systems/complexity viewpoint...makes sense to me
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #144 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 00:39
permalink #144 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 00:39
(jonl) Platform cooperatism was on your top ten list....could you talk a bit more about that....has this got the "wobbly potential" of the early 1900's https://www.iww.org/history/icons/wobbly
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #145 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 00:41
permalink #145 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 00:41
Alongside the platform movement are the many communities of practice, doing good work (g)locally...do you hold out much hope for more and more networks of people of good will connecting around issues on cooperative platforms that get work done. Examples???
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #146 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 00:43
permalink #146 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 00:43
One of the fascinating aspects of the cryptocurrencies is that the move has been to establish the currency first without some grand economic system....kind of 'plug and play'. I gather the idea is that the currency will fit and adapt to any model, new or old.
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #147 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 00:50
permalink #147 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 00:50
Which brings up the Blockchain, which starts with "B", which rhymes with "D", which stands for Data (as well as the mobile programming language). Privacy, or the lack thereof, is still a big issue, with an important vote today in Washington....could the blockchain, Holochain, or "tangled" be part of the solution to the problem of "who's data is it anyway?". I don't mind shipping all my data to NSA, knowingly, or just let Google and Facebook do it for me at midnight :). Just as long as it is clear that it is MY data....I will settle for a digital time stamp. However, we live in a more robust digital universe than that. I would like all my data, and my children's and grand children's data set in 'digital stone' enabling an educational, vocational and personal porfolio which can be accepted as verified, true and trustworthy as a representation of my identity and work....my own personal Wikipedia...with which I can share with others, a true and accurate portrayal of my digital AND flatland selves. Is it possible, doable, and a good path to pursue, or can everything be spoofed now... Is Fake more real than REAL??
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #148 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 03:27
permalink #148 of 221: Ted Newcomb (tcn) Thu 11 Jan 18 03:27
re 'women coins', there are also now Press Coins. "PressCoin is a large, ambitious project to build an alternative global media ecosystem." Always nice to have a grand vision. https://www.presscoin.com/whitepaper/
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #149 of 221: Brian Slesinksy (jonl) Thu 11 Jan 18 06:42
permalink #149 of 221: Brian Slesinksy (jonl) Thu 11 Jan 18 06:42
Via email from Brian Slesinsky: Speaking of architecture: "[...] malls often make prime targets for housing developments they tend to be located in convenient, transit-accessible areas but arent close enough to residential neighborhoods to stoke NIMBY complaints, said urban development expert Richard Florida, a professor at the University of Toronto and author of 'The New Urban Crisis.' "A single defunct mall can become host to thousands of new housing units as part of a mixed-used development, giving residents easy access to stores and other amenities as well as a feeling of community. But homes in revamped or brand new malls still are likely to be out of reach for many workers in the Bay Area. Upscale Santana Row, for example, offers little for less than about $2,500 a month, according to Apartment Finder." https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/01/08/shopping-for-a-home-head-to-the-mall/
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State of the World 2018: Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky
permalink #150 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Thu 11 Jan 18 07:25
permalink #150 of 221: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Thu 11 Jan 18 07:25
We've talked about AI and deep learning systems and other future fascinations - but with all the brilliant technology at our disposal, the flu virus is still kicking our ass every year. This morning's headline: "Flu rampant in swaths of Texas." 7 adults dead locally, many more statewide, 2 more months left in our flu season. I've been sick for the last week myself, but with a different, less malign virus. We had our influenza vaccinations, but one strain of this year's virus, H3N2, apparently mutated and isn't responding well to the vaccine. The flu is widespread nationwide. https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/main.html Spread of flu would be mitigated somewhat by simple regular handwashing. We're a nation with dirty hands.
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