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State of the World 2021
permalink #76 of 250: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 9 Jan 21 06:23
permalink #76 of 250: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 9 Jan 21 06:23
It was the Left who were supposed to become the Techlash contingent, but the loathsome Senators Cruz and Hawley immediately grabbed that torch away from them, and these two coup-meisters are so dangerous and disgusting that nobody is gonna want to help them out. So instead of losing Section 230, a goal that Trump was ready to defund the Pentagon to achieve, we're gonna get some kinda double-down Section 460, a digital new-deal that pretends to regulate the tech majors but also formalizes their power. I don't think that Big Tech wanted this, they'd much prefer to be left alone to mint cash in their surveillance silos, but Trump's bloody radicalism has forced their hands. Either they kiss, make up and divvy up the turf, or they're gonna get pecked to death by loony-right QAnon fascist squadrons. So their time has come to stand up; it's pretty much them or nobody.
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State of the World 2021
permalink #77 of 250: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 9 Jan 21 06:24
permalink #77 of 250: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 9 Jan 21 06:24
Also, it's not enough the Trumpista gang have been hacked and suddenly fallen silent; some of them are gonna have to go to jail. I don't know who's gonna hound them and how, but there's gonna be a lot of sticks. And, also, I'd be guessing, some pretty big carrots. These new Dukes of Cyberspace will need to shower some of their gold on the restive population. They need to make the new dispensation look likable because, considered objectively, it's like 1984 on steroids. This development seems kinda sudden, but it's one of the least weird political developments I've seen in a long time. It's a different ruling class, but it's a reasonable and plausible ruling class that goes where the money, power and brains are, so who knows, just maybe they'll actually be able to govern the USA.
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permalink #78 of 250: Christian De Leon-Horton (echodog) Sat 9 Jan 21 07:44
permalink #78 of 250: Christian De Leon-Horton (echodog) Sat 9 Jan 21 07:44
How does that jibe with the assertion that surveillance is BS? The technocracy is all about surveillance.
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permalink #79 of 250: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sat 9 Jan 21 08:15
permalink #79 of 250: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sat 9 Jan 21 08:15
<scribbled by jonl Sat 9 Jan 21 08:15>
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permalink #80 of 250: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sat 9 Jan 21 08:15
permalink #80 of 250: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sat 9 Jan 21 08:15
<echodog> I'm not sure how that relates to the previous posts. I don't think <bruces> is suggesting that Big Tech won't continue to "mint cash in their surveillance silos," or that the surveillance is any more okay that it was before.
> but there's gonna be a lot of sticks. And, also, I'd be guessing, some pretty big carrots. These new Dukes of Cyberspace will need to shower some of their gold on the restive population. They need to make the new dispensation look likable because, considered objectively, it's like 1984 on steroids. This has been underway within YouTube for quite some time. The strange inevitability of youtube's machine-learning algorithms to channel "next video" rabbit holes towards strange homemade conspiratorial/holocaust-denialism/white nationalist monologues has been a puzzle and a challenge for their team for several years. In 2019 they took steps to ban holocaust denial videos outright, but the homebrew radicalization original content of Q-anon and its related factions has been driving massive levels of engagement (i.e. revenue) on their site, putting them in a bind over whether to kill the golden goose, or wait for it to kill them. Because original content earns higher levels of engagement, the YouTube sales teams can target advertising content more narrowly and charge more for it. Throughout 2020 they've been trying different ways of throttling down on traffic flow towards the unhinged sector, and encouraging traffic towards more "legitimate" institutions, though it's definitely cutting into their profit margins a bit. Anyone who's able to generate decent (and non-radicalizing) original content that earns engagement AND partner with credible institutions (universities, large businesses, media companies, NGOs, government agencies, etc) will likely benefit massively from YouTube's efforts to cultivate non-crazypants moneymaker spaces where they can sell ad-space without having to get called into senate hearings every six months.
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permalink #82 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 09:21
permalink #82 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 09:21
[<jonl> reminded me this morning that I haven't participated here yet, though I've been following it; the below is adapted from messages I sent to a private mailing list that Jon and I are both on; I've edited them to remove material from others on the list who haven't consented to sharing it] == Appl and Goog have removed Parler for not having an effective hate-speech filter. Do we think there's a "hate speech filter" that: a) filters a meaningful fraction of hate speech, and b) does not filter legitimate speech? Given that we can't make a nudity filter that works (hi, Tumblr) and given that nudity is a far less contested category that "hate speech," how would that work? By all means, if you think Apple and Goog should be evicting Parler, then take that position. But the idea that Parler's failing is their unwillingness to invest in a nonexistent technology is an obvious pretense on Appl/Goog's part. Some test cases for a software hate-speech filter: Which of these is hate-speech? * "The rioters were wearing shirts with an English translation of the motto over the gates of Auschwitz, 'Arbeit macht frei." * "We should send you Jew-lovers to Auschwitz where you'll learn the meaning of 'arbeit macht frei'!" * "You call me a 'Jew-lover' as though that is a source of shame. Of course I'm a Jew-lover. After all, I am a Jew, and I love myself." -- Which of these is hate speech? * "The Trumpist mob that beset the Black woman in the streets of downtown Los Angeles used numerous racial slurs, including [racial slur]." * "The Dems have built an unstoppable coalition backed by [racial slur]s." * "The senator's account was terminated after it was revealed that he had posted numerous racially inflammatory statements to the service, including 'The Dems have built an unstoppable coalition backed by [racial slur]s'." -- Recall that Sarah Jeong asked Jigsaw's leading sentiment analysis tool to evaluate the hate speech she'd been subjected to, and it identified the following statement as having the lowest possible rating for aggression: "Iâm going to rip each one of her hairs out and twist her tits clear off" https://www.wired.com/2016/09/inside-googles-internet-justice-league-ai- powered-war-trolls/ == So sure, condemn Parler, condemn Apple and Google for including them in the app stores, but please let's not pretend that "hate speech filters" exist as anything but grifty promises from overcapitalised snake-oil salesmen flogging their magic beans.
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permalink #83 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 09:21
permalink #83 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 09:21
Someone reading the above might say that hate-speech filters are imperfect, but they could act as an early warning signal, alerting human moderators who can exercise judgment over speech. That may be true, but there's not much evidence of it. Facebook and Twitter notoriously and routinely overblock the TARGETS of hate speech for repeating the things they've been called, or just for venting about the people who've targeted them) and let obvious hate-speech through. The lack of a crisp definition of "hate speech" is a big part of the problem. For all intents and purposes "hate speech" is indistinguishable from "speech that is almost-but-not-quite-hate-speech." That means that if the platforms publish a definition of "hate speech," the most dedicated producers of hate speech will produce an endless torrent of almost-but-not-quite-hate-speech, which will be experienced as hate speech by its targets. Worse: dedicated trolls will use their encylopedic knowledge of hate speech rules to goad their targets into uttering hate-speech and then demand that their targets be removed from the system. This is not hypothetical: it's how the state sponsored trolls in Cambodia operate, and they have used it to completely neutralize the opposition that mounted a nearly successful election campaign in 2013. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/meghara/facebook-cambodia-democracy There's some evidence that Cambodia's state trolls are actual private contractors, which means that you can buy goad-hate-speech-targets-into-ToS- violations as a service. So what if the tech platforms instructed their moderators to remove things that fit the hate speech definition AND anything that was *almost* hate speech? We know what that looks like: The "I know it when I see it" standard, combined with huge numbers of moderators with a range of sensibilities and common sense, leads to things like a World of Warcraft moderator shutting down an LGBTQ-friendly guild for "provoking hate speech" by "inflammatorily" advertising that its members are queer and allies. https://arstechnica.com/uncategorized/2006/02/6129-2/ This isn't a counsel of despair. We can have speech policies that work, but they work at the scale of a community, not a global service. BTW, If you're looking for a set of moderation principles written by marginalized people who have been the targets of hate-speech, check out the Santa Clara Principles, which articulate a human rights framework for content removal and moderation: https://santaclaraprinciples.org/
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permalink #84 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 09:22
permalink #84 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 09:22
Does that mean that Goog and Appl shouldn't have taken action against Parler? Not at all. I am all for platforms (including app stores) having a variety of speech policies. After all, I expect different speech standards when I'm tucking my daughter in at night, when I'm in a professional meeting, when I'm having a conversation around a campfire, and when I'm in a political debate. I want to have a variety of conversational spaces that I can choose among based on my preferences about the suitability of the house rules to the context of the discourse I want to have. The problem with the app stores is that a shameful, four decade, bipartisan neglect of antitrust enforcement has contracted the possible universe of speech policies for mobile apps into two hands, and neither store has been a good steward of that power. Both routinely block apps for stupid reasons. I don't expect Appl or Goog to stop making mistakes, and I am not confident that they'll make fewer mistakes. Rather than focusing on making Appl and Goog more successful at content removal (something I'm in no position to do), I want to focus on making their failures less consequential, by encouraging competition in app stores and by legalizing adversarial interoperability, so that members of the public who are badly served by Appl and Goog's speech policies have a remedy apart from "complaining" and "suing" -- that remedy is "choosing someone else's moderation policies," which, in a technical sense, generally means "sideloading." Sideloading (for Appl devices) requires legalizing violations of terms of service (CFAA), bypassing TPMs (DMCA 1201), reimplementing APIs (Oracle v Google*), and other legally fraught activities. https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2019/10/adversarial-interoperability Like the pandemic, Parler is revealing the latent fragility of our systems. Parler is vulnerable to takedown by a duopoly of app stores, by a oligopoly of cloud providers, by a tiny coterie of payment processors. I hate Parler and would be delighted to see it consigned to the dustbin of history, but I know that my political adversaries (the entities behind Parler) are perfectly capable of bringing the same pressures to bear against services I like - app stores already routinely block apps for stupid reasons, such as alleged "progressive bias." It's reasonable to say that Parler should use a mix of automated tools and human judgment to block unlawful speech and/or hate speech - but it's NOT the reason that Appl/Goog have removed it. Both companies have made it clear in their public communications that Parler must install an effective hate- speech filter to qualify for inclusion in their stores. I hope we can all agree that "effective hate-speech filter" is a nonexistent technology, and that therefore none of the existing services whose apps appear in either app store have such a technology in place. I don't think this means the companies should do nothing. If Apple and Google want to remove Parler because they think it's terrible, they should say so: "We have removed Parler because we think it is a politically suspect project intended to foment violence. That judgment is primarily subjective and may be wielded against other platforms in future. If you don't like our judgment, you shouldn't use our app store." I'm 100% OK with that: first, because it is honest; and second, because it invites the question, "How do we switch app stores?" Cory
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permalink #85 of 250: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Sat 9 Jan 21 11:24
permalink #85 of 250: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Sat 9 Jan 21 11:24
Does Trump's threat to repeal Section 230 make sense? If that were done the big media companies would immediately evict Trump and his boosters to keep them from posting things that would cause the companies to be sued.
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permalink #86 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 11:56
permalink #86 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 11:56
Only if you don't mind shutting down the WELL the same day. There definitely isn't enough money in this shoestring op to let people post stuff if The WELL is to be held liable for what they post. But Facebook'll be fine - they have more mods than then entire headcount at Twitter.
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permalink #87 of 250: shannon (vsclyne) Sat 9 Jan 21 13:54
permalink #87 of 250: shannon (vsclyne) Sat 9 Jan 21 13:54
I wouldn't worry about the Well. Postings are mainly only readable by its members; and it doesn't have enough members for anyone in authority to be concerned with.
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permalink #88 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 14:52
permalink #88 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 14:52
You've misunderstood the nature of the risk: CDA230 insulates platforms from civil liability - that is, a pissed off WELL user suing the WELL over something another WELL user said. If you don't think WELL users are capable of getting angry enough at one another to sue each other, you need to read some different forums.
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permalink #89 of 250: shannon (vsclyne) Sat 9 Jan 21 15:06
permalink #89 of 250: shannon (vsclyne) Sat 9 Jan 21 15:06
I understand your point, but I judge the risk to be vanishingly small.
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permalink #90 of 250: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Sat 9 Jan 21 15:39
permalink #90 of 250: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Sat 9 Jan 21 15:39
It's silly to make this about the Well.
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permalink #91 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 16:35
permalink #91 of 250: Type A: The only type that counts! (doctorow) Sat 9 Jan 21 16:35
Of course it's about the WELL. It's about every single forum for online speech, from Kickstarter to Yelp, from The WELL to your PTA mailing list. They would literally be unable to function if they were jointly liable for their users' speech. As to "vanishingly small" - WELL users have REPEATEDLY threatened legal acation agains one another over things they said to one another (some have even served notice on one another). Do you think that the service has undergone some transformation that has made the users of this service less prone to anger at one another? How would (or could) the WELL vet potential new signups to determine whehter they would name the service as a party to any suits in the event that another WELL user made them angry enough to sue?
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permalink #92 of 250: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Sat 9 Jan 21 18:26
permalink #92 of 250: Virtual Sea Monkey (karish) Sat 9 Jan 21 18:26
Donald Trumo isn't demanding repeal to strike out at the WeLL. Who put that bug in his ear, and why? It would be bad for him personally.
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permalink #93 of 250: Alan Fletcher : Factual accounts are occluded by excess of interpretation (af) Sat 9 Jan 21 18:38
permalink #93 of 250: Alan Fletcher : Factual accounts are occluded by excess of interpretation (af) Sat 9 Jan 21 18:38
He probably doesn't have a card good for $15, or he could check it out himself. Maybe he can get a pre-paid?
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State of the World 2021
permalink #94 of 250: Andrew Alden (alden) Sat 9 Jan 21 19:42
permalink #94 of 250: Andrew Alden (alden) Sat 9 Jan 21 19:42
Cory is right. Well members have done some memorably reprehensible things to each other over the years, just not lately.
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permalink #95 of 250: Gail Williams (gail) Sat 9 Jan 21 20:46
permalink #95 of 250: Gail Williams (gail) Sat 9 Jan 21 20:46
CDA230 is the legal underpinning that makes the Well's business possible. I don't have a management role here anymore, but I can't begin to imagine the scramble to find out if private insurance companies would step up and how much they would charge. Managers and owners being able to roll their eyes at assertions of libel makes all forum-conversation space viable.
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permalink #96 of 250: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sat 9 Jan 21 21:26
permalink #96 of 250: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sat 9 Jan 21 21:26
It looks like Amazon has a bigger (if temporary) ban-hammer than the other big tech firms, because Parler runs on AWS. Not for long. Amazon is kicking Parler off its web hosting service Parlers CEO said the site could be offline for up to a week https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/9/22222637/amazon-workers-aws-stop-hosting-ser vices-parler-capitol-violence So if they want to stay up, they will need to find another hosting service and a CDN big enough to absorb the inevitable denial-of-service attacks. I wonder if Cloudflare would do it? But I wonder a bit why Trump's minions didn't have a blog ready to go. His fans would find it and syndicate it everywhere for him, and the press would feel obligated to read it and report on it.
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permalink #97 of 250: Michael D. Sullivan (avogadro) Sat 9 Jan 21 21:47
permalink #97 of 250: Michael D. Sullivan (avogadro) Sat 9 Jan 21 21:47
I'd say it's dead, not just off for a week. Migrating from AWS to another host (if one can be found in the US) will be a major operation.
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permalink #98 of 250: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sat 9 Jan 21 21:57
permalink #98 of 250: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sat 9 Jan 21 21:57
Portability is possible but it depends very much on the details of their software stack. Parler's CEO claims they planned ahead, but who knows, maybe it's just talk. re: <74> I don't see why big tech would need a Zoom call. All they needed was a Schelling point, and they got a big, obvious one. They don't need to coordinate any further, any more than airlines need to coordinate privately to match prices. The info they need is public. Also, I'm thinking all the bosses had to do was finally give in to the activist contingent of their mostly-liberal employees who have been advocating for this sort of thing since before Trump got in. It's probably pretty good for morale, overall, and after being under siege (culturally) for years, they could use a morale-booster. (Their minority of closeted Trumpist employees might be glum about it, though.)
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permalink #99 of 250: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 9 Jan 21 22:11
permalink #99 of 250: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 9 Jan 21 22:11
Yeah, it's very much about the WELL, or at least, what history has done with the legacy of the WELL. The Electronic Frontier's just not a frontier now, it's densely settled, it's got all kinds of wealth and infrastructure to quarrel over, and it's got a blooming plethora of economic, legal, social and ethical problems. I'm not that upset about it. Problems are inherent in the human condition. It's good that we're recognizing that the richest companies in the world really are the richest and most influential enterprises in the world and not kinda purple-haze cyberspace ivory towers. It's realpolitik and it's much healthier than QAnon delusion. The WELL really was a purple-haze cyberspace ivory tower for quite a while, I can fondly remember how thrilling that was, but nowadays it is what it is, which is a funky little mom-and-pop legacy-media niche. That's what the passage of time does, it's the nature of history and futurity, there's a melancholy beauty to it. You shouldn't whine about it any more than you ought to wring your hands about the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
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permalink #100 of 250: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 9 Jan 21 22:12
permalink #100 of 250: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Sat 9 Jan 21 22:12
Meanwhile, it's snowing like crazy in the country of the Tiny Spaniard. A major-league Greenhouse blizzard has blown in and people are skiing on the snowdrifts in Madrid.
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