Inkwell: Authors and Artists

    
Free WaPo link on just how long it can get results from many key
states and some delay times for various states:

<https://wapo.st/4fpj3ho>

PA wasn't called by the AP until Saturday.
  

    
Looking pretty scary here, at the moment, but I'm remembering that
we were hearing it would be Thursday before the count's finished. 
  

    
<183>
I follow Stonekettle on threads. He used to live in Alaska but moved
to Florida. 

“Florida is redneck Evangelicals and old white people who moved here
from somewhere else to die on a golf course. BOTH are absolutely
terrified "someone" is going to come steal all their shit, rape
their women, and gayify their grandkids. They were NEVER going to
legalize pot, even through they all smoke it. They were NEVER in a
million years going to legalize abortion. It's the South, they were
never going to vote for the black lady. They'll cut off their own
noses to spite everyone else.”
  

    
Just on Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) coverage: Trump
favoured to win all 7 swing states.

I am feeling physically ill.
  

    
MSNBC is saying Sherrod Brown has lost his seat.
  

    
Fair enough, Mr. Stonekettle, although perhaps too broad a brush.

Adam Schiff, to my great joy, has taken Diane Feinstein's seat. 

Slipped. Damn.

It's funny - I've moved over the last 24 hours from "you people are
too fucking optimistic, we're doomed" to "god damn it, it is NOT
OVER". I'm not sure which is the accurate one, but at least the
latter flame isn't burnt out.
  

    
Analysis from WaPo as to Harris's strongest possible path to
victory:

>>Even if Harris loses Georgia and North Carolina, her top path to
victory remains in play.

This “blue wall’’ path using the northern swing states has been the
simplest and most plausible one for Democrats for a long time,
dating back to even when President Joe Biden was still in the race.

It requires only three states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
— and those three states happen to be ones Harris has led in The
Post’s polling average, albeit narrowly.

It also requires Harris to win one additional electoral vote to get
to 270, most likely via Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
(Nebraska is one of two states, along with Maine, to award some
electoral votes by congressional district.) Harris has led in polls
of that district by around 10 points.

You’ll probably hear a lot about the blue wall in the hours ahead.
When you do, this is what it’s referring to. And if the blue wall
falls, it really opens things up for Trump and lots of other
possibilities.<<
  

    <scribbled by lperson Wed 6 Nov 24 10:23>
  

    <scribbled by lperson Wed 6 Nov 24 10:23>
  

    
My gift to needle-haters everywhere:

The Tyranny of the Election Needle

There is no good way to consume Election Night information anymore.
By Ian Bogost and Charlie Warzel

>>The New York Times is once again poking readers’ eyes with its
needle. A little digital gauge, like the one that might indicate
that your boiler or nuclear-power plant is about to explode,
“estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling
data,” as the Times puts it. As we write this, the needle is
piercing the red “Likely” side of the gauge, indicating that the
decision is “Likely Trump.” To validate this qualitative assessment,
the needle also clarifies, again in the moment we’re writing this,
that Donald Trump has an 88 percent chance of victory. That’s good
to know, or bad, depending on your preferences.

The Times is not alone in offering minute-to-minute assessments, of
course. On television, news anchors talk endlessly about anything,
or nothing, reporting live from Nevada or North Carolina. At
CNN.com, the network’s familiar election map offers live results
too, in an interface now so confusing that one of us couldn’t figure
out how to back out of Georgia’s results after zooming in. The whole
affair is meant to provide updates on a result entirely out of our
control. At some point, probably not tonight and maybe not tomorrow,
we will know who won the presidential race—and all of the other
federal and state contests and ballot initiatives and the like
too.<<

<https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/11/election-needle-tyranny
/680547/?gift=1GQFLaQ1yhOu7hhb3PZC3DPTZgywV9yGsZwPlUBVWtg&utm_source=copy-link
&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share>
  

    
Analysts are pointing out that we are exactly where we were in 2020,
with a few jiggles here and there. And we won that, but it wasn't
settled until Saturday.
  

    <scribbled by lperson Wed 6 Nov 24 10:23>
  

    
WSJ says Harris takes New Mexico.
  

    <scribbled by lperson Wed 6 Nov 24 10:23>
  

    
Saw that, Larry. From inside the campaign, right?
  

    
It's 11:40pm in NYC, and I've hit my own wall. 

It's pretty terrible how close this is, but Harris hasn't lost yet.
Look at where the outstanding votes are on the AP maps, and it lines
up very well with that memo from Harris' campaign manager.

See you tomorrow.

ETA: Hurrah for Missouri!
  

    
Hot damn, that's good to hear. 

Of course if Harris loses it will be a crushing blow, but already
the news isn't all bad. 

I'd still want to get the hell out of the country, but that's a
non-starter with Spouse. Stuck here.
  

    
North Caroline to Trump, per the Times.
  

    <scribbled by lperson Wed 6 Nov 24 10:23>
  

    
Just dropping in here for a (needed) reality check. 

I'm going with: It's Not Over Yet. 
  

    <scribbled by lperson Wed 6 Nov 24 10:23>
  

    
Thanks for that, Craig. Every set of lips that comes from warms me.

Slip. I'm not sure, Larry. Most of them, to my ears, were mostly
looking to dump bile, regardless of facts and promises.
  

    <scribbled by lperson Wed 6 Nov 24 10:23>
  

    
Heather Cox Richardson's newsletter in its entirety:

"Today is Election Day, 2024.

Since results still seem a long way away, I'm going to call it a
night, and remind everyone that no matter what happens in the next
several hours, the sun is going to come up again tomorrow.

I'll see you then."
  

    
Watching the results trickle in won’t change them, so I’m going to
bed. Thanks for the HCR reminder.