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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #76 of 159: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 5 Jan 25 07:23
permalink #76 of 159: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 5 Jan 25 07:23
<scribbled by jonl Sun 5 Jan 25 07:23>
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #77 of 159: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 5 Jan 25 07:25
permalink #77 of 159: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 5 Jan 25 07:25
This quote was posted elsewhere on the WELL... I think it fits here. "Of all the fates that might befall us, from madness to illness to the trauma of war, being bored seems, at most, trivial. We tend to associate the experience of boredom with childhood --- zoning out in class, long summer days at home with nothing to do. But that's just because as soon as we get old enough to control our time, we do everything possible to make sure we never experience boredom. What parents haven't had the experience of rejecting a child's request for screen time and then catching themselves immediately going back to scrolling their phones? "And yet boredom --- unlike, say, hunger --- isn't a universal human experience. Anthropologists who work with Indigenous peoples who live outside industrial modernity from Fiji to Ecuador to Australia report that these societies spend oceans of time doing nothing, without complaints of boredom. Their languages often don't even have a word for boredom. One anthropologist who works with the Warlpiri Aboriginal people in Australia noted that the lexeme for the concept is an import, writing, 'When Warlpiri people referred to boredom, they used the English word, usually embedded in otherwise Warlpiri sentences.' It turns out boredom is a constitutive experience of modernity. "Yet we feel this restlessness; we lament our shrinking attention spans. But to focus on a relatively narrow question of technical measures of our attention span misses a deeper truth. The restlessness and unease of our times aren't simply, in my experience, the vertigo of distraction and distractibility. No, that experience is itself a symptom caused by some deeper part of the unsettled self. The endless diversion offered to us in every instant we are within reach of our phones means we never have to do the difficult work of figuring out how to live with our own minds." <https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/03/opinion/chris-hayes-msnbc-attention.html?un locked_article_code=1.mk4.EZrO.L_xjbrQdiTGv&smid=url-share>
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #78 of 159: Slanketpilled hammockmaxer (doctorow) Sun 5 Jan 25 10:19
permalink #78 of 159: Slanketpilled hammockmaxer (doctorow) Sun 5 Jan 25 10:19
@bruces/77 > However, I'm wondering if maybe this is an actual consumer *benefit.* Yes, it's bowdlerized and kid-friendly slop-product, it's helpful-harmless-and-honest, but it's also the Reader's Digest Condensed Novel version of crabby subcultural material that unwashed-masses might find hard to approach. The problem is that it's not just bowlderized or dumbed-down (I can and do deliver versions of my talks to audiences of kids, normies, and suits, using simple words and polite euphemisms). The problem is that the bowlderized, dumbed-down LLM version of my talks evince the *opposite* viewpoint to my own. They're not just simplified, nor even *over*simplified. Rather, they're *wrong*. When I think of LLM "summarization" I always come back to Jamie Lee Curtis's magnificent rant in *A Fish Called Wanda*: > Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement. Those are all mistakes, Otto. I looked them up.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #79 of 159: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 5 Jan 25 10:33
permalink #79 of 159: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Sun 5 Jan 25 10:33
Reminding that, when you prompt a chatbot like ChatGPT, you're still just querying a database, and the response will be data from that database that fits the query, whether or not it's factually correct. Over the last half decade I've embraced a heightened skepticism about "truth" and "facts," and forecasts however well-informed. In our human experience it can feel like we have a clear perception and embrace of an objective reality and can bear witness with some degree of confidence - but that's delusion. The models we're building are hinky and flawed. Memory is unreliable. Even the present moment might be misperception. These insights haven't radically changed the way I experience the world, but I lack confidence in the models and narratives that drive that experience.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #80 of 159: from MICHAEL BROCKINGTON (tnf) Sun 5 Jan 25 11:28
permalink #80 of 159: from MICHAEL BROCKINGTON (tnf) Sun 5 Jan 25 11:28
Michael Brockington, via email: State of the World - one of my favourite New Year's rituals! Thanks for posting the following comment to the discussion: This concept of "AI slop" reminds me of Philip K. Dick's "kipple" - stuff like junk mail or yesterday's newspapers, all the physical detritus of modern civilization that multiplies itself into a vaguely threatening grey tide of litter when no-one is paying attention. The First Law of Kipple also maps nicely onto the digital present from PKD's more analog future: "Kipple drives out nonkipple." That's certainly true when I search for anything on the internet of late - dozens of links with machine-generated, cookie-cutter content, pushing more useful information out to the margins. Every Google search becomes a Turing test. Doubtless many in this forum remember the promise of the early internet as a utopia of open communication and shared knowledge. We can probably agree that threat has been largely neutralized. I don't suppose everybody thought it was such a good idea at the time. Power loves information asymmetry, naturally. Still, the dynamics of greed are probably sufficient to explain how we got from there to here. Of course, that First aw of Kipple is a variation of Gresham's Law: "Bad money drives out good." The classic example being debased coinage driving sound currency out of circulation, since people prefer to spend the clipped coins and hoard the pure article. In an attention economy, that becomes "Bad information drives out good." "Bad" in both senses: not just the amygdala-tickling "If it bleeds, it leads," but also the more troubling tactic of "Flood the zone with shit." False information spreads faster than truth, and produces more engagement. Of course, the "reality-based community" has been taking heavy fire at least since the days of Bush the Younger. Has the renaissance of psychedelics per- haps prepared us to accept that consensus reality is a quaint, out-dated no- tion? Here, too, echoes of PKD. Contrariwise, we have Thier's Law, which is the reverse of Gresham's. It postulates that good money drives out bad - but only when the bad money has become nearly worthless. Are we there yet? And what might that reversal look like in the information economy? The revenge of the paywall is one aspect, it seems, as we finally capitulate to the notion that good information has a cost, and free is no bargain. It was an interesting moment when Musk had his Dealbook meltdown over adver- tisers withdrawing from Twitter/X. Social media gutted traditional media by sucking up all the advertising dollars - but along with that comes advertiser arm-twisting. Meanwhile, traditional media is being freed - kicking and screaming - from that pernicious influence, providing a window of opportunity to come up with a better model. Cheers, --Michael Brockington
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #81 of 159: William F. Stockton (yesway) Sun 5 Jan 25 12:31
permalink #81 of 159: William F. Stockton (yesway) Sun 5 Jan 25 12:31
TFTP Michael. My favorite PKD - Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesnt go away. The TV movie Dont Look Up! did a marvelous job of illustrating what happens when the population doesnt know who to trust. Maybe when they have to start building serious flood controls in Palm Beach theyll figure out that theres no such thing as alternative facts.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #82 of 159: Every Google search becomes a Turing test. (yesway) Sun 5 Jan 25 12:32
permalink #82 of 159: Every Google search becomes a Turing test. (yesway) Sun 5 Jan 25 12:32
There, got it loaded.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #83 of 159: Slanketpilled hammockmaxer (doctorow) Sun 5 Jan 25 12:37
permalink #83 of 159: Slanketpilled hammockmaxer (doctorow) Sun 5 Jan 25 12:37
Wrt kipple and websearch - my most amazing revelation of 2024 was trying kagi.com, an *extremely good* search engine that is effectively kipple-free, and is *also* built atop of Google and a few other search engines. What made this find so remarkable was the revelation that if Kagi, a tiny, low-budget startup, can afford the engineering talent needed to disenshittify Google results, then it must mean that Google just *doesn't want* to disenshittify itself: https://pluralistic.net/2024/04/04/teach-me-how-to-shruggie/#kagi
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #84 of 159: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sun 5 Jan 25 13:02
permalink #84 of 159: Brian Slesinsky (bslesins) Sun 5 Jan 25 13:02
Everyone has cell phones now and geolocating anything getting blown up in Ukraine is a thing, and yet amateur journalism doesn't seem to help all that much with these rumors of UFO's. (Or does it? I haven't really looked.)
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #85 of 159: Andrew Alden (alden) Sun 5 Jan 25 14:21
permalink #85 of 159: Andrew Alden (alden) Sun 5 Jan 25 14:21
Thanks for reviving one of PKD's best coinages. I think of "kipple" nearly every day, because I see it on every roadside and in every Google search.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #86 of 159: (phred) Mon 6 Jan 25 00:32
permalink #86 of 159: (phred) Mon 6 Jan 25 00:32
Meanwhile I'm enjoying the current moment of frisson over -- wait for it -- fog. And of course there is a drone connection, there has to be. The climate scientist (with a big pinch of meteorology) Daniel Swain gave this a once-over and concludes, "But to be very clear: there is no evidence of anything exceptional, let alone nefarious, regarding location, duration, extent, or composition of the viral #fog videos" circulating at the moment! Everything I've seen just looks like good old condensed water vapor." https://bsky.app/profile/weatherwest.bsky.social/post/3lepm5jru5l2w Which is in part an excuse for me to say in the presence of our Austin fam, "onward: thru the fog!"
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #87 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:25
permalink #87 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:25
On the subject of the ongoing war -- (it's more or less our period-standard "Russo-Ukrainian War," but it's extending itself) -- I would like to play WELL State-of-The-World Armchair General. But, well, I know that I'm not very good at it. I totally understand the APPEAL of doing that, and I can write that way -- it's very "HG Wells 'Little Wars," science fiction writers tend to like doing armchair-general -- but that war's ten years old and counting. It's not sparkly new and 2025. So maybe I can liven it up and refresh the topic by conveying a recent, novelistic anecdote. You see, there's this guy, who was a long-time player in the Russo-Ukrainian War, and to celebrate the New Year 02025, he got killed in battle.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #88 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:26
permalink #88 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:26
So now this armed hero can belong-to-the-ages, and I think it's fair to sum him up here and now. He kinda personifies historical forces, mostly because he REALLY REALLY WANTED to "personify historical forces." This was his full-time job as a geopolitical activist. His given name was Bratislav Zivkovic, and he liked to bill himself as "the Twenty-First Century's Only Living Chetnik." The original Chetniks were some armed-resistance guerrillas, or maybe a government-in-internal-exile, from "the Kingdom of Yugoslavia," or from the general Balkan region, anyway. The Chetniks were that region's ethnonational conservative right-wingers.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #89 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:27
permalink #89 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:27
The Chetniks were completely overshadowed by invading Fascists/Nazis, and then brushed aside by Tito-style regional Communists and the invading Soviet Red Army. In the vast meatgrinders of these planetary totalitarian ideologies, the Chetniks were considered mere irrelevant local hicks. They had some guns, a few anyway, but mostly they just wanted to remain old-time men-of-the-soil who faithfully went-to-church and bowed-the-knee to the Throne. They were the corny, flyover-zone, old-timers devoid of the onrushing future; they wore home-made lambskin hats and they refused to ever read MEIN KAMPF or DAS KAPITAL. It's probably fair to say that the "ideal Chetnik" didn't even read. Instead, he would be some sturdy yeoman Cincinnatus mountaineer with the simplest and sternest of moral codes: honor the gods, love the farm-wife and her many kids, and drive off that foreign invader. This peasant-fireside folk-tale didn't suit the Twentieth Century's cruel political narratives, and under Marshal Tito's long peacetime aegis, the Chetnik veterans were basically non-people with a non-history, shadowbanned people that the installed system did not allow you to talk about.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #90 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:28
permalink #90 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:28
Then there was Tito's death and the Yugoslav Civil War, which was very ethnonational indeed. Our story-protagonist Bratislav Zivkovic didn't have much of a role in that fight; the 1990s were too long ago, he was too young. Also, I suspect that merely meddling in some minor Post-Yugoslav border incidents always felt too small for his ambitions. Zivkovic longed to become a romantic, world-class Chetnik who would be visible on the world stage. So Zivkovic ventured to the Russo-Ukraine War, and he was there from the get-go; he was one of the first adventurers off-the-boat to join the "Little Green Men" in liberating the ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine from the horrifying menace of a democratic, Europeanized Kiev. Zivkovic was the sort-of-commander of a loose international mini-brigade of about a hundred freebooters, but Zivkovic never seemed to do much actual fighting on-the-ground. He had many colleagues who resembled him, like "Givi" and "Motorola," but those guys were actual battle-hardened blue-collar warlords who would cut your throat soon as look at you. Zivkovic was there to make a different point. He was there to re-open the long-closed historical Overton Window for "being a Chetnik."
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #91 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:30
permalink #91 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:30
Zivkovic was in the fight for the glory and the girls; he liked to boast of his prowess as a ladies-man. That feat comes pretty easy for a warlord in a war-zone; if you like loose women, there will be plenty available, and they're "loose" because their house was bombed flat. Zivkovic was vainglorious, and also a bald guy, and clearly upset about that; he generally sported a long, rural-looking black beard, and always wore towering big furry hats, and never liked his shiny pate to be visible in his endless selfies. I used to collect those pics of his, because Zivkovic was making such a self-promoting social-media effort. He was a boasty warlord, but he was an interesting boasty warlord *within a new media idiom,* a "world-famous guerrilla-fighter" in some MacLuhan media/message maelstrom where his "fame" was mostly wannabe-meme jpegs. https://flic.kr/p/o9bh5E
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #92 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:30
permalink #92 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:30
Back in the Balkans, the local people found Zivkovic embarrassing; nobody in the ex-Yugoslav mini-states much wants to commit to any lethal warfare between Russians and Ukrainians. They had a war quite like that themselves, and this new, more up-to-date war is so much vaster in scale than theirs, and so much worse and uglier and bloodier than their war, that it overshadows their suffering, and makes their worst war-crimes look like pipsqueak minor-league efforts. Also, they knew Zivkovic well, and could recognize him as a phony, a pretender and a blowhard wannabe. He wasn't a squalid *grifter* or anything, he was never in it for the mere mercenary cash -- but the modern Balkan situation doesn't much need any "Chetniks." Chetniks are royalists and there's no royalty; Chetniks were Yugoslavs and there's no Yugoslavia; the guy's ambitions were arcane, extremist and nutty and didn't get popular traction; he was like a furry-hatted QAnon Shaman figure.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #93 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:34
permalink #93 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:34
So, back at home, Zivkovic never got much adulation or applause, but as a tireless foreign volunteer for the Russian "Russky Mir" side, he could be useful. The Russians used to print his rants and let him show up at major public events. He had his own call-sign nom-de-guerre, "Coma," a handle which didn't work very well in English, but Bratislav "Coma" Zivkovic was quite a cool battlefield name. Also, among his many colleagues who were also armed Little Green Men agitators: Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, Arsen "Motorola" Pavlov, Mikhail "Givi" Tolstykh, Aleksey Mozgovoy, et al -- Zivkovic was absolutely the best-dressed fellow. He was not the only fighter wearing a strange made-up costume, because they all did, but his camera-ready, cosplay dress-up gear was always neat, thought-out and well-pressed. Zivkovic looked refined and gentlemanly, even. Whenever he was posing with heavy weapons, they were polished, well-maintained heavy-weapons, they were never grimy and covered with trench-mud and use-wear, like the hardware of the other guys.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #94 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:35
permalink #94 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:35
Compared to his rivals/friends, Zivkovic actually looked classy, rather girl-pleasing, a Balkan knight-on-parade. There's something very Belgrade about his attitude; if you're French, Belgrade looks plenty rough and gritty, but if you're Russian, then Belgrade looks like Paris, because it's all sidewalk cafes, fruity eau-de-vie, tasty baklava and pretty-girls in high heels. If you line up a bunch of mugshots of the historic Little Green Men Ukraine-War operators, Zivkovic leaps out from that sordid crowd at once, like "Hey look, that cool guy dressed as a Chetnik is one of ours!" As a political operative and determined Internet-influencer, that seemed to be the guy's victory condition. He was never, in his heart, some committed, covert, armed other-than-war filibuster determined to overthrow and conquer Ukraine. Instead, he existed to be publicly seen, and hopefully emulated, as "the Living Twenty-First Century Chetnik."
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #95 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:38
permalink #95 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:38
Then on January 2 Zivkovic got killed. Russian war-bloggers on Telegram announced that Zivkovic had "died as a hero." I haven't yet figured out how Zivkovic actually met his end. Most of his warlord colleagues from ten years ago are also bloodily dead by now. However, they tended to get singled-out and vengefully, methodically, dramatically liquidated by dedicated and skillful hit-teams. It's like a slow-motion horror movie, how many of these pro-Russian zealots have been massacred by shadowy killers, including their very top guy Yevgeny Prigozhin, who got blown to bits in a private jet by his own head-of-state. Igor "Strelkov" Girkin is more or less the only pioneering Little Green Man of any standing who is somehow still alive, and Strelkov's not "standing," he's sitting like an inert lump in one of Putin's jails with no likelihood of ever seeing daylight until Putin himself is dead.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #96 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:39
permalink #96 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:39
So to see Zivkovic also devoured by this dismal meatgrinder is not some amazing plot twist. It is prototypical of that conflict. Russians are so eager to bleed on that tormented ground that they'll literally shell one aother with artillery in order to do it. They'll take that war home to Moscow and blow up their own warplanes along the way. It's a horrific mire of a war, a gray-ooze post-truth slog; it's like the grim evils of the Eastern Front without the bother of confronting any actual Nazis. I'm assuming that Zivkovic got killed by some random artillery round, maybe by a passing drone or a NATO-supplied missile. His luck ran out, but he did have the good luck that the Russians didn't kill him. Instead, the enemy killed him in combat. Also, he did not die as a wicked marauder while looting and subjugating any Ukrainians. Instead, he managed to die standing tall on Russian soil while defending Mother Russia from foreign invaders. That's a good narrative for him.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #97 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:40
permalink #97 of 159: Bruce Sterling (bruces) Mon 6 Jan 25 01:40
I don't think death in combat much surprised Zivkovic; he wasn't overtly kamikaze-suicidal, because he liked being-on-TV too much, but as the "No-Longer-Living Twenty-First Century Chetnik," Zivkovic may have achieved an effective martyrdom. He could have just been the QAnon Shaman, some colorful demented showoff dismissed and sent to jail like a loony, but his noble death in a combat zone makes him a warrior-hero who will likely look pretty-okay on some future fridge-magnet or tough-guy hoody. He makes Twenty-First Chetniks look viable as military players, and, on the world stage, he makes all the Jake Chansleys of the world also look better. If you're a loose cannon who might senselessly blow yourself up alone in a Tesla in Las Vegas, you can look at the Chetnik career of Bratislav Zivkovic and think to yourself: "Wait a minute, I can get all the attention that I innately crave, but there's a larger cause of comradeship here!" That's his achievement, as the new year starts; that's his story.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #98 of 159: from MICHAEL BROCKINGTON (tnf) Mon 6 Jan 25 08:09
permalink #98 of 159: from MICHAEL BROCKINGTON (tnf) Mon 6 Jan 25 08:09
Michael Brockington writes: @ doctorow/83 Thanks for sharing the link to the kagi.com search engine -- it looks great! When I saw that it was a paid service, I still had a moment of reflexive aversion. I clearly have some work to do, training my brain to see that as a positive signal.
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #99 of 159: Mark McDonough (mcdee) Mon 6 Jan 25 08:12
permalink #99 of 159: Mark McDonough (mcdee) Mon 6 Jan 25 08:12
"If a service is free, you are the product!" ;-)
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Bruce Sterling and Jon Lebkowsky: State of the World 2025
permalink #100 of 159: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Mon 6 Jan 25 08:26
permalink #100 of 159: Jon Lebkowsky (jonl) Mon 6 Jan 25 08:26
I consider myself a Buddhist. I'm not a very good Buddhist - I don't participate with a formal sangha and I've never had a one-on-one Buddhist teacher, though from my perspective I've had many Buddhist teachers via podcasts of dharma talks and instruction, also books and a few online workshops. I've never attended a sesshin (medication retreat) or meditated all day. I don't follow the formal rituals that the "real" Buddhists follow. But I do meditate regularly and study the dharma in my own way. I'm not pursuing enlightenment or any particular goal - I just sit regularly, sometimes concentrating on something, usually my breath, and sometimes just sitting with awareness. If I can be called a Buddhist, it's because I follow instruction from Soto Zen practitioners, and to some extent Vipassana and Dzogchen practitioners. I appreciate the wisdom of Eihei Dogen, founder of the Soto school of Dogen, who captured Buddhist wisdom in various writings back in the 1200s. And I also regularly ponder The Heart Sutra or "The Heart of the Perfection of Wisdom," which discusses the fundamental emptiness ([-][-]nyat[-]) of all phenomena. I spend some time getting my head around the Buddhist sense of "emptiness."
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